SITUATION REPORT: SUDAN AND HER NEIGHBOURS

This research paper by David H. Shinn analyzes Sudan's strategic position in Africa, focusing on its internal civil war, the economic impact of oil, and its complex bilateral relations with its nine neighboring countries as of March 2003.

• The civil war in Sudan, which resumed in 1983, is driven by racial and religious divisions between the Arab north and African south, resulting in at least 1.5 million deaths and significant displacement.
• The Machakos Protocol, initiated under the stewardship of Kenya and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), represents a breakthrough in peace negotiations by addressing the role of religion and the possibility of southern secession via an internationally monitored referendum after a six-year interim period.
• Oil reserves in Sudan, primarily located in the south and the Sudd swamp, are estimated by one expert to be 1 billion barrels of known reserves, potentially reaching 2.9 billion barrels by 2010. These reserves are significant but lower than those of major producers like Iran or the UAE.
• Sudan's relationship with Libya is characterized as unpredictable due to the erratic nature of Muammar al-Qadhafi. While relations improved in 2002 through high-level meetings and agreements on political coordination, Libya has a history of supporting the SPLA and opposition groups in Western Sudan.
• Relations with Uganda have shifted from mutual support of rebel groups—the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) by Sudan and the SPLA by Uganda—toward a cautious normalization. This includes the restoration of full diplomatic relations in January 2003 and a protocol allowing Ugandan forces to conduct limited military operations against the LRA inside Sudan.
• Ethiopia is described as Sudan's most important regional partner, with relations normalizing after 1998 due to Ethiopia's conflict with Eritrea. The two countries have cooperated on trade, oil imports, and a regional alliance with Yemen to combat terrorism, though Ethiopia remains concerned about Islamic fundamentalism.
• Relations with Eritrea are strained and rocky. After a period of normalization, ties deteriorated by mid-2002 due to allegations that Eritrea supports Sudanese opposition groups and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), leading Sudan to close its border with Eritrea.
• Egypt views Sudan as a strategic priority and its 'backyard,' with the primary point of contention being the Nile water allocation and the preservation of Sudanese unity to avoid negotiating water rights with a separate southern state. A dormant border dispute also exists over the Halaib triangle.

APA

Shinn, D. H. (2003). SITUATION REPORT: SUDAN AND HER NEIGHBOURS. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/research/situation-reports/situation-report-sudan-and-her-neighbours-david-h-shinn

Chicago

Shinn, David H. SITUATION REPORT: SUDAN AND HER NEIGHBOURS. Institute for Security Studies, 2003. https://issafrica.org/research/situation-reports/situation-report-sudan-and-her-neighbours-david-h-shinn.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Shinn |first1=David H |title=SITUATION REPORT: SUDAN AND HER NEIGHBOURS |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=7 March 2003 |url=https://issafrica.org/research/situation-reports/situation-report-sudan-and-her-neighbours-david-h-shinn |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{shinn2003situation, author = {Shinn, David H}, title = {{SITUATION REPORT: SUDAN AND HER NEIGHBOURS}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2003}, month = mar, url = {https://issafrica.org/research/situation-reports/situation-report-sudan-and-her-neighbours-david-h-shinn}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }