The Sudan - IGAD Peace Process. Signposts for the Way Forward

The paper analyzes the Sudan-IGAD peace process, highlighting the shift from the first stage of negotiations between the Government of Sudan (GoS) and the SPLM/A to a necessary second stage focused on inclusivity and democratic transformation. It argues that the success of the Machakos Protocol depends on expanding the process to include civil society and northern opposition groups, as well as resolving volatile bilateral relations with neighbors like Eritrea and Uganda. The author emphasizes the critical role of US pressure and the need for a successful referendum on self-determination for southern Sudan to prevent a return to conflict.

• The IGAD Peace Initiative's first stage was characterized by 'elitism and exclusivity', focusing narrowly on the Government of Sudan (GoS) and the SPLM/A while rebuffing requests for observer status from civil society and other political groups.
• A failure to achieve democratic inclusivity and popular support from civil society and major political interests threatens the viability of the peace process, risking a return to war similar to the failure of the 1972 Addis Ababa Agreement.
• The South Sudan Defence Force (SSDF) and marginalized southern politicians represent a significant immediate threat to stability in southern Sudan, as the dismantling of the SSDF under the Security Arrangements Agreement may not be easily or peacefully achieved.
• The peace process is heavily dependent on the continuing engagement of the United States, whose use of sanctions and potential for military force provided the necessary pressure to achieve the Machakos Protocol breakthrough.
• Sudan's stability is linked to its volatile regional relations, specifically the 'tit-for-tat' pattern of supporting each other's dissidents; improving relations with Uganda and Eritrea is essential to secure the peace process.
• The core of the Machakos Protocol involves a critical compromise: the SPLM/A's demand for self-determination in the south versus the GoS's insistence on Shari'ah law in the north.
• The document identifies the need to address the grievances of marginalized groups, such as the Beja in eastern Sudan and the Acholi in northern Uganda, as a prerequisite for regional stability.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (2004). The Sudan - IGAD Peace Process. Signposts for the Way Forward. https://issafrica.org/topics/peacekeeping-and-conflict-management/01-mar-2004-the-sudan-igad-peace-process.-signposts-for-the-way-forward

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. The Sudan - IGAD Peace Process. Signposts for the Way Forward. 2004. https://issafrica.org/topics/peacekeeping-and-conflict-management/01-mar-2004-the-sudan-igad-peace-process.-signposts-for-the-way-forward.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=The Sudan - IGAD Peace Process. Signposts for the Way Forward |date=March 2004 |url=https://issafrica.org/topics/peacekeeping-and-conflict-management/01-mar-2004-the-sudan-igad-peace-process.-signposts-for-the-way-forward |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudies2004sudan, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{The Sudan - IGAD Peace Process. Signposts for the Way Forward}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2004}, month = mar, url = {https://issafrica.org/topics/peacekeeping-and-conflict-management/01-mar-2004-the-sudan-igad-peace-process.-signposts-for-the-way-forward}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }