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The paper identifies a rise in conflict events and fatalities in Africa since 2010, concentrated in five countries: Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan, CAR, and Somalia. It uses the International Futures modelling system to project three scenarios to 2063: a 'Base Case' of continued moderate growth, an 'African Renaissance' of inclusive growth and stability, and 'Politics of the Belly' characterized by elite exploitation and instability. The authors argue that governance is the primary driver of stability and that while democratisation is a general trend, the transition period often increases the risk of violence.

The document analyzes the African Group's engagement at the UN Human Rights Council, noting a tension between a desire for regional leadership and a tendency to grant accused governments veto power over resolutions. While some 'human rights-friendly' states consistently support country-specific resolutions, others systematically abstain or oppose them, leading to an uneven response to crises across the continent and globally.

The policy brief argues that Nigeria is experiencing a self-inflicted decline in its diplomatic standing within Africa. Despite being the continent's nominally largest economy as of May 2014, Nigeria's foreign policy is described as inchoate and ambiguous, hampered by a 'perverse hiatus' between its domestic ecology—marked by corruption and the Boko Haram insurgency—and its international ambitions. The author contends that Nigeria has lost its pre-eminence in Africa, failing to command respect even within ECOWAS and falling behind South Africa in governance and infrastructure. The document recommends that Nigeria prioritize domestic stability, clean government, and a recomposed social contract to restore its leadership role.

The document examines Ethiopia's foreign policy under the EPRDF-led government, specifically the Foreign Affairs and National Security Policy and Strategy (FANSPS). It highlights Ethiopia's dominant role in regional peace and security, particularly through IGAD and UN/AU peacekeeping missions, while critiquing the mismatch between this strategic prominence and the allocation of diplomatic and financial resources. The author argues that Ethiopia's focus on internal stability and security has led to a 'sluggish' approach to economic diplomacy and regional integration.

The emergence of the Islamic State represents a significant shift in global jihadism, offering a divisive alternative to al-Qaeda. Africa is particularly vulnerable due to the presence of established radical Islamist groups and the potential return of thousands of battle-hardened African fighters from Iraq and Syria. The document warns that the Islamic State's model of territorial occupation and its extreme ideology could destabilise several African regions, particularly North and West Africa. It argues that governments should avoid draconian counter-terrorism measures, which often fuel radicalisation, and instead pursue criminal justice-based approaches that address local drivers of discontent.

The relationship between South Africa and China has evolved from formal diplomatic recognition in 1998 to a 'comprehensive strategic partnership' by 2010. While bilateral trade has grown rapidly, with China becoming a primary trading partner, the structure remains imbalanced, characterized by South African raw material exports and Chinese manufactured imports. Investment patterns are unique compared to other African nations, with South African firms historically investing more in China than vice versa, although Chinese FDI is increasing in mining and infrastructure. Diplomatic cooperation is strong in multilateral forums like BRICS and the UN Security Council, though tensions exist regarding commercial competition and public perceptions of Chinese business practices.

The paper examines why elections in Africa often trigger violence and fail to legitimise power, attributing this to high stakes regarding access to state resources. It argues that technical fixes are insufficient and that stability requires inclusive political settlements, credible election management bodies (EMBs), and robust domestic observation and mediation systems involving civil society and traditional leaders.

The document argues that agricultural cooperatives promote inclusive investment by allowing farmers to maintain control over resources while achieving economies of scale. It highlights that well-organized cooperatives reduce risk for foreign investors and facilitate more efficient contracting. The brief emphasizes that government support should be limited to creating an enabling legal environment and providing technical resources, rather than interfering in internal management, as bottom-up initiatives are generally more successful.

The document promotes agricultural cooperatives as a socially and politically acceptable alternative to 'land grabbing,' allowing farmers to retain control of their resources while accessing markets and finance. It distinguishes between production and service cooperatives and highlights the benefits of collective bargaining and resource sharing. The text emphasizes that while foreign investment can reduce risk and provide capital, government support should be limited to creating a favorable legal environment and providing technical training, rather than direct interference in management.

The 2014 South African Defence Review describes the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) as being in a 'critical state of decline' due to obsolescence, force imbalance, and unsustainable budgeting. The review proposes a long-term rejuvenation plan through four planning milestones extending to 2034, requiring significant budget increases. However, the author argues that the review's 'mandate-driven' approach is overly expansive given South Africa's financial constraints and actual tasks. The brief recommends refocusing the SANDF on peace operations, downsizing bloated staffing structures, and reforming the department's accountability and procurement legislation.

The document examines the evolution of democratic governance in Africa from the OAU era to the AU era, focusing on the APRM and ACDEG. It argues that while the continent has shifted from 'politics of the bullet' to 'politics of the ballot', significant challenges remain, including 'illiberal democracies' and slow implementation of governance reviews. The author advocates for stronger synergies between the African Governance Architecture (AGA) and the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA), increased domestic funding for National Programmes of Action (NPoAs), and a balanced role for non-state actors to prevent 'state capture' of these initiatives.

The document argues that high debt costs in rapidly emerging economies can increase the cost of utility-scale wind and solar PV projects by 24-32%. It proposes two primary solutions: indexing renewable energy tariffs to foreign currencies to attract lower-cost international capital by mitigating currency hedging costs, and implementing government-backed concessional debt programs to reduce the total support required to make projects viable. The report provides detailed analysis of these mechanisms using India as a primary case study, suggesting that these interventions could lower the cost of renewable energy support by up to 30%.

The report analyzes the landscape of investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS), noting that the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) and the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL) are the most frequently used frameworks. It examines the governing structures of intergovernmental bodies (ICSID, PCA, UNCITRAL) versus non-governmental ones (ICC, SCC, LCIA, CRCICA), arguing that intergovernmental structures offer better reform opportunities for states. The document highlights critical flaws in the current system, including the 'dual-role' of arbitrators acting as both counsel and judge, the lack of transparency in private institutions, and the limited avenues for states to challenge awards based on errors of law or fact. It suggests that systemic reforms to these central rules could impact thousands of existing investment treaties simultaneously.

The African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM), established in 2003 under NEPAD, is a voluntary governance assessment system where African states evaluate their own political, economic, and corporate governance. By 2013, 33 states had acceded, with 17 completing their first review. The mechanism utilizes a process of self-assessment, expert missions, and high-level peer review to identify deficiencies and implement National Programmes of Action (NPoAs). While the APRM has successfully expanded democratic space and fostered a common governance vocabulary, it faces challenges in integrating NPoAs into national budgets and ensuring consistent high-level oversight of implementation.

The document outlines SEI's interdisciplinary approach to the water-energy-food nexus, emphasizing the need to integrate cross-sectoral interactions, ecosystem services, and multi-scale governance. It highlights the use of analytical tools like WEAP and LEAP to identify synergies and trade-offs in resource management. SEI advocates for participatory processes and the identification of policy 'entry points' to ensure scientific research translates into practical, sustainable solutions for resource scarcity.

The document is a formal letter from a broad coalition of international organizations opposing the inclusion of investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) in the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). The authors argue that ISDS allows corporations to challenge non-discriminatory government policies in private tribunals, potentially forcing taxpayers to compensate companies for implementing public health, environmental, and labor regulations. They cite examples of ISDS being used to attack clean energy and toxic waste regulations, and argue that the domestic court systems of the US and EU are sufficient for handling investment disputes.

The document argues that South Africa's mining sector is trapped in a 'prisoners' dilemma' where majoritarian bargaining rules incentivise rival unions to pursue aggressive, often violent, strategies to maintain credibility and market share. This institutional failure, combined with rigid labour regulations, has contributed to industry stagnation and decreased investment attractiveness. The author recommends decentralising wage bargaining, implementing profit-sharing models, and empowering the Council for Conciliation, Mediation and Arbitration (CCMA) to strip bargaining rights from unions that engage in illegal or violent strikes.

The paper argues that Egypt's decision to join the TFTA is driven by a combination of geopolitical interests, a long-term shift toward trade liberalisation, and a desire to maintain influence in Africa. While static economic gains may be modest due to existing COMESA memberships and structural barriers, the author suggests that the TFTA offers a more consistent policy path than joining a customs union, potentially enhancing Egypt's role as an investment hub and improving relations with other African states.

The document examines the intersection of G-20 financial regulatory initiatives and African economic development. It identifies five key G-20 focus areas—financial stability, financial inclusion, local currency bond markets, agricultural finance, and trade finance—and assesses the mechanisms through which non-member African states can influence these global standards. While acknowledging that the G-20 recognizes the needs of developing countries, the author argues that African representation remains limited and that the adoption of international standards like Basel II/III must be sequenced to align with local developmental goals.

The document examines the challenges of African regional economic integration, highlighting the failure of the EU-modeled Abuja Treaty due to political tensions and infrastructure deficits. It compares the 'traditional' donor approach—focused on institutional support and soft infrastructure—with the 'emerging' partners' project-based, resource-driven approach. The author argues that while emerging partners fill critical hard infrastructure gaps, their tied-aid models can limit local skill transfer. The paper concludes that Africa must define its own strategic development agenda to effectively leverage competition between these partners and avoid 'incentive wars'.