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The document analyzes the risks associated with Colombia's dependence on thermal coal exports amidst declining global demand and proposes a transition strategy based on economic diversification and social equity. It highlights the severe poverty and environmental degradation in the Cesar and La Guajira regions, where coal mining contributes significantly to regional GDP but provides limited local employment. The brief recommends shifting from carbon-intensive industrialization to low-carbon asset diversification, implementing active labor policies, and establishing mechanisms to quantify and repair socio-environmental liabilities. It critiques current government strategies, such as 'neutral coal,' for extending the life of a declining sector rather than accelerating decarbonization.

Colombia is the world's sixth-largest coal exporter, with the sector contributing approximately 1.1% of the national GDP and providing significant royalties. However, the global market is contracting as major importers in the Atlantic and Americas markets set phase-out dates for coal-fired power. While some industry associations suggest expanding into Pacific markets like China and India, high freight costs and those countries' own goals for carbon neutrality make this difficult. The Colombian government has historically supported the sector through various tax exemptions and incentives, such as the Plan Vallejo and Tax Refund Certificates. The report argues that Colombia must urgently diversify its economy and implement a just transition to mitigate the socio-economic risks of a structural decline in coal demand.

The report establishes that gender equality is both a co-benefit of and a tool for effective climate policy. Through an analysis of the Colombian coal sector, it finds that current climate and energy policies are largely gender-blind or rely on stereotypes, while gender policies often ignore the climate crisis. Field research reveals that while women—particularly Indigenous and Afro-Colombian women—are active grassroots leaders in defending their territories, they are structurally excluded from formal decision-making. The authors propose a GRCP that incorporates intersectionality, local expertise, and a 'just transition' framework to ensure that the phase-out of coal does not reproduce existing social inequalities.

The report evaluates Colombia's departmental energy performance using a trilemma framework. It finds that while regions like Antioquia and Boyacá excel in energy security due to hydroelectric and thermal resources, significant gaps persist in energy equity between the National Interconnected System (SIN) and Non-Interconnected Zones (ZNI). Environmental sustainability is hindered by a reliance on fossil fuels, particularly gas and coal in departments like Atlántico and La Guajira, while non-conventional renewable energy sources (FNCER) remain underutilized.

The document assesses Colombia's vulnerability as the world's fourth largest thermal coal exporter facing declining global demand. It highlights significant risks to regional GDP and employment in the Cesar and La Guajira departments, where coal is a dominant economic driver. The brief notes a lack of domestic planning for post-coal scenarios and evaluates alternatives such as agriculture and tourism, while recommending coordinated long-term planning involving national institutions like the DNP and UPME to ensure a just transition.

The document examines the risks Colombia faces as a major coal exporter amid falling global demand and the rise of renewables. It highlights the extreme vulnerability of the Cesar and La Guajira departments, where coal is a dominant driver of regional GDP and employment. The brief argues that Colombia currently lacks a formal national or regional plan for a post-coal transition, leaving it susceptible to economic instability, unemployment, and social unrest. It recommends long-term planning led by the DNP and UPME, diversification into agriculture and tourism, and the implementation of a 'just transition' framework to protect workers and the environment.

The document examines the political economy of coal subsidies in Colombia, identifying various fiscal incentives and the strategies used by a coalition of government and industry actors to protect them. It highlights how the coal sector benefits from both sector-specific and general mining incentives, often framed as essential for national economic development or the funding of the peace process. The paper analyzes three specific cases: the Plan Vallejo, a special income tax deduction for fixed assets, and a royalties rebate, to illustrate how these subsidies are introduced, maintained, or eventually removed through political and legal processes.

The document analyzes the political economy of coal extraction in Colombia, noting that while production grew from 38 Mt in 2000 to 88.6 Mt in 2015, the sector now faces declining global demand and increasing domestic resistance. It details how opponents—including indigenous groups and municipal governments—have shifted from protests to using judicial mechanisms like the 'acción de tutela' and popular consultations to challenge mining titles. In response, the Colombian government and companies (such as Cerrejón and Drummond) have adopted new narratives, linking extraction to peace-building, increasing corporate social responsibility investments, and forming unified business associations like the Asociación Colombiana de Minería. The brief concludes that the sector's historically weak governance has become a liability, and a transition away from coal will require separating the mining sector from oil and gas in public discourse and developing alternative socio-economic pathways.

The document analyzes the precarious state of Colombia's coal industry, which faces declining global demand, falling prices, and increasing domestic resistance. It details how the industry has shifted from a 'development locomotive' narrative to one linking extraction to the financing of peace processes. The paper highlights a significant shift in opposition strategies, moving from protests to institutional channels like 'acciones de tutela' and local consultations, which have empowered the Constitutional Court to challenge mining governance. In response, coal companies have increased spending on public relations, formed the Asociación Colombiana de Minería (ACM) to strengthen lobbying, and accused the judiciary of 'judicial activism'. The authors argue that a successful energy transition requires separating coal from other minerals and hydrocarbons in public discourse and developing alternative development models for affected regions.

The document details a discussion on the failure of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects to provide sustainable development, highlighting human rights violations and the lack of social safeguards. It specifically cites the Reliance Sasan Ultra Mega Power Plant in India for violating additionality and stakeholder consultation rules, and coal mining in Colombia for causing coercive displacement and killings. The report emphasizes the urgent need for a grievance mechanism within the CDM and introduces the CDM Benefit Tracker to monitor discrepancies between promised and actual project benefits in India.

The document uses a departmental input-output model to project that Colombia could lose up to 448,000 jobs by 2035 due to decreased coal, oil, and gas production. It highlights a significant disparity in impact: 'Vulnerable' departments (Arauca, Casanare, Cesar, La Guajira, and Meta) face severe production drops (32%-38%) and job losses that cannot be offset by renewable energy projects alone. While 'Large Economies' and 'Limited Affectation' departments also face job losses due to interdepartmental linkages, they possess higher potential for compensation through structural changes in agro-industry and nature tourism. The brief argues that a 'just transition' requires a structural economic shift, specifically proposing the creation of food manufacturing clusters and local-content requirements for renewable energy imports to maximize domestic employment.

The report argues that Colombia's NDC 3.0 must move from implicit to explicit fossil fuel phase-out (FFPO) goals, aligning national targets with the COP28 Global Stocktake. It provides quantitative modeling for renewable energy capacity, energy storage, and the retirement of coal and gas plants, while emphasizing the need for social protection and economic diversification for affected communities.

The document identifies critical bottlenecks in Colombia's energy transition, specifically in transmission infrastructure and licensing, which cause project delays of three to six years. It argues that while capital is available, there is a shortage of bankable, large-scale projects. To bridge a projected annual investment gap of 27.7 billion COP (approximately 7.5 billion USD) in clean energy for 2026-2030, the report recommends utilizing blended finance, asset securitization, and a dedicated economic transition fund to support regions dependent on fossil fuels, where 448,000 jobs are at risk by 2035.