Resiliencia en tiempos de transición: ¿cómo puede Colombia prepararse para un futuro sin carbón?

The document examines the risks Colombia faces as a major coal exporter amid falling global demand and the rise of renewables. It highlights the extreme vulnerability of the Cesar and La Guajira departments, where coal is a dominant driver of regional GDP and employment. The brief argues that Colombia currently lacks a formal national or regional plan for a post-coal transition, leaving it susceptible to economic instability, unemployment, and social unrest. It recommends long-term planning led by the DNP and UPME, diversification into agriculture and tourism, and the implementation of a 'just transition' framework to protect workers and the environment.

• Colombia is the world's fourth largest coal exporter, with coal accounting for approximately 20% of its trade balance and 12% of its exports as of 2015.
• The departments of Cesar and La Guajira are critically dependent on coal, producing and exporting over 90% of the country's coal; in 2016, the industry contributed 38% of Cesar's regional GDP and 44% of La Guajira's.
• A rapid decline in coal demand threatens approximately 30,000 direct jobs in Cesar and La Guajira, with few alternative employment options offering comparable wages.
• Colombia's public policy documents currently ignore the possibility of a significant decline in coal exports, including the 'Visión Cesar Caribe 2032' plan.
• Agriculture and tourism are identified as potential economic alternatives, but they face structural barriers including lack of infrastructure, land conflicts, and low current employment shares in the coal regions.
• There are significant concerns regarding the environmental rehabilitation of mines, as Colombian mining companies are only environmentally responsible for three years following a mine's closure.
• The document recommends that the National Planning Department (DNP) and the Mining and Energy Planning Unit (UPME) lead the creation of long-term transition plans and macroeconomic impact analyses.

APA

Strambo, C., & Atteridge, A. (2018). Resiliencia en tiempos de transición: ¿cómo puede Colombia prepararse para un futuro sin carbón? Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/resiliencia-en-tiempos-de-transicion.pdf

Chicago

Strambo, Claudia, and Aaron Atteridge. Resiliencia en tiempos de transición: ¿cómo puede Colombia prepararse para un futuro sin carbón? Stockholm Environment Institute, 2018. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/resiliencia-en-tiempos-de-transicion.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Strambo |first1=Claudia |last2=Atteridge |first2=Aaron |title=Resiliencia en tiempos de transición: ¿cómo puede Colombia prepararse para un futuro sin carbón? |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=July 2018 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/resiliencia-en-tiempos-de-transicion.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{strambo2018resiliencia, author = {Strambo, Claudia and Atteridge, Aaron}, title = {{Resiliencia en tiempos de transición: ¿cómo puede Colombia prepararse para un futuro sin carbón?}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2018}, month = jul, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/resiliencia-en-tiempos-de-transicion.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }