Propuesta colaborativa para la NDC 3.0

The report argues that Colombia's NDC 3.0 must move from implicit to explicit fossil fuel phase-out (FFPO) goals, aligning national targets with the COP28 Global Stocktake. It provides quantitative modeling for renewable energy capacity, energy storage, and the retirement of coal and gas plants, while emphasizing the need for social protection and economic diversification for affected communities.

• Transforma's modeling suggests a minimum renewable energy capacity of 21.4 GW by 2030 to meet projected demand, which would increase the share of renewables in the electricity matrix from 65.7% in 2022 to 80% by 2030. Long-term targets to maintain a net-zero trajectory by 2050 are proposed at 29.9 GW for 2035 and 88.2 GW for 2050.
• The document proposes a phased exit for thermal plants: coal self-generation plants by 2027 and private/mixed coal plants by 2031. For natural gas, self-generation plants would exit in 2033, public/mixed plants in 2036, and private plants in 2037.
• To support the integration of non-conventional renewable energy, the report estimates a need for 3 GW of energy storage by 2035 (10% of installed capacity), requiring an annual investment of 0.5%–0.7% of GDP. By 2050, storage needs would reach 11.7% of installed capacity (10 GW in batteries), with annual investments of 0.62%–0.8% of GDP.
• The report identifies a gap in electric vehicle (EV) adoption; while NDC 2.0 targeted 600,000 EVs by 2030, Transforma's more conservative model projects approximately 246,377 units, noting that EVs represented only 0.05% of the vehicle fleet in 2023.
• Specific sector-level recommendations for NDC 3.0 include prohibiting new open-pit mining licenses—which could avoid 320 million tons of CO2 equivalent—and banning fracking and unconventional deposits in biodiversity-priority or water-stressed regions.
• The proposal emphasizes a 'Just Transition' through the creation of a public policy (CONPES) for coal-dependent regions, the total elimination of fossil fuel subsidies, and the use of carbon tax revenues to finance renewable energy and social protection for affected workers.

APA

Ojeda, H. M., Osorio, P., Combariza, N., Rippe, J. D. S., Rey, M. X. B., Patiño, D. C. B., & Mogollón, A. M. (n.d.). Propuesta colaborativa para la NDC 3.0. Transforma. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Propuesta-colaborativa-para-la-actualizacion-de-la-contribucion-nacionalmente-determinada-NDC-3.0.pdf

Chicago

Ojeda, Harold Maya, Paula Osorio, Nadia Combariza, Jonathan David Sanchez Rippe, María Ximena Barrera Rey, Diana Carolina Barba Patiño, and Ana María Mogollón. Propuesta colaborativa para la NDC 3.0. Transforma, n.d. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Propuesta-colaborativa-para-la-actualizacion-de-la-contribucion-nacionalmente-determinada-NDC-3.0.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ojeda |first1=Harold Maya |last2=Osorio |first2=Paula |last3=Combariza |first3=Nadia |last4=Rippe |first4=Jonathan David Sanchez |last5=Rey |first5=María Ximena Barrera |last6=Patiño |first6=Diana Carolina Barba |last7=Mogollón |first7=Ana María |title=Propuesta colaborativa para la NDC 3.0 |publisher=Transforma |url=https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Propuesta-colaborativa-para-la-actualizacion-de-la-contribucion-nacionalmente-determinada-NDC-3.0.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ojedandpropuesta, author = {Ojeda, Harold Maya and Osorio, Paula and Combariza, Nadia and Rippe, Jonathan David Sanchez and Rey, María Ximena Barrera and Patiño, Diana Carolina Barba and Mogollón, Ana María}, title = {{Propuesta colaborativa para la NDC 3.0}}, institution = {Transforma}, url = {https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Propuesta-colaborativa-para-la-actualizacion-de-la-contribucion-nacionalmente-determinada-NDC-3.0.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }