Propuesta colaborativa para la actualización de la Contribución Nacionalmente Determinada (NDC 3.0) y la transición energética justa en Colombia

This report by Transforma, Polen, and WWF Colombia provides a collaborative proposal for updating Colombia's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0). It focuses on accelerating a just energy transition by establishing quantitative targets for the phase-out of fossil fuels, increasing renewable energy capacity, and implementing sector-specific decarbonization measures to align with the Global Stocktake (GST) and the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050.

• Transforma's modeling suggests that Colombia's renewable energy capacity in the electricity matrix should reach a minimum of 21.4 GW by 2030 to meet current projected demand. This would increase the share of renewables in the electricity matrix from 65.7% in 2022 to 80% by 2030. For longer-term trajectories toward net-zero by 2050, the proposal suggests installed renewable capacity targets of 29.9 GW for 2035 and 88.2 GW for 2050.
• The report proposes specific quantitative timelines for the phase-out of fossil fuel power plants. Under a conservative scenario, self-generation coal plants (40.1 MW) would exit in 2027, and private and mixed coal plants (1,643 MW) by 2031. For gas-fired plants, self-generation (73.54 MW) would exit in 2033, public and mixed plants (712 MW) in 2036, and private plants (3,382.25 MW) in 2037.
• To ensure grid reliability with high renewable penetration, the report identifies a need for significant electrical storage. It estimates a requirement of 3 GW of storage by 2035 (10% of installed generation capacity), requiring an annual investment of 0.5%–0.7% of GDP. By 2050, storage needs would rise to 11.7% of installed capacity, or 10 GW in batteries, with an annual investment of 0.62%–0.8% of GDP.
• The document highlights a gap between current electric vehicle (EV) adoption and NDC 2.0 goals. While the NDC 2.0 targets 600,000 EVs by 2030, Transforma's modeling uses a more conservative estimate of approximately 246,377 vehicles for 2030, noting that as of 2023, EVs represented only 0.05% of the 18.9 million vehicle fleet (9,591 units sold between 2020 and 2023).
• The proposal recommends several high-impact restrictive measures for the extractive sector, including prohibiting new open-pit mining licenses—which could avoid the emission of 320 million tons of CO2 equivalent by leaving 345 million tons of coal unexploited—and banning new oil and gas exploration licenses, particularly in the Colombian Amazon.
• The report advocates for a 'Just Transition' framework that includes economic diversification and social protection for affected regions. Specifically, it suggests creating a public policy (CONPES document) for regions dependent on coal mining and implementing a clear, progressive schedule for the total elimination of fossil fuel subsidies, redirecting those funds toward the just energy transition.

APA

Ojeda, H. M., Osorio, P., & Combariza, N. (n.d.). Propuesta colaborativa para la actualización de la Contribución Nacionalmente Determinada (NDC 3.0) y la transición energética justa en Colombia. Transforma. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Propuesta-colaborativa-para-la-actualizacion-de-la-contribucion-nacionalmente-determinada-NDC-3.0.pdf

Chicago

Ojeda, Harold Maya, Paula Osorio, and Nadia Combariza. Propuesta colaborativa para la actualización de la Contribución Nacionalmente Determinada (NDC 3.0) y la transición energética justa en Colombia. Transforma, n.d. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Propuesta-colaborativa-para-la-actualizacion-de-la-contribucion-nacionalmente-determinada-NDC-3.0.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ojeda |first1=Harold Maya |last2=Osorio |first2=Paula |last3=Combariza |first3=Nadia |title=Propuesta colaborativa para la actualización de la Contribución Nacionalmente Determinada (NDC 3.0) y la transición energética justa en Colombia |publisher=Transforma |url=https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Propuesta-colaborativa-para-la-actualizacion-de-la-contribucion-nacionalmente-determinada-NDC-3.0.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ojedandpropuesta, author = {Ojeda, Harold Maya and Osorio, Paula and Combariza, Nadia}, title = {{Propuesta colaborativa para la actualización de la Contribución Nacionalmente Determinada (NDC 3.0) y la transición energética justa en Colombia}}, institution = {Transforma}, url = {https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Propuesta-colaborativa-para-la-actualizacion-de-la-contribucion-nacionalmente-determinada-NDC-3.0.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }