Search Climate Insights Directory

The document examines South Africa's complex relationship with the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) framework, noting a tension between its commitment to protecting civilians and its skepticism toward military interventions that may serve as pretexts for regime change. While South Africa helped integrate R2P principles into the African Union's Constitutive Act, its actions as a UN Security Council member—particularly regarding Libya—have led to perceptions of inconsistency. The author argues that South Africa prefers a moderate approach centered on dialogue and regional solutions, constrained by limited domestic resources and a strategic desire to avoid endorsing interventions that could be applied selectively in Africa.

The paper critiques the 'liberal peace paradigm' in Africa, suggesting that external peacebuilding often reinforces autocratic governance by focusing on state-building and technical capacity rather than addressing systemic inequality and patronage networks. It argues that current conflicts are driven by the collective denial of individual rights to maintain power configurations, and that peacebuilding must shift toward a rights-based approach to be effective.

The February 2015 Peace & Security Council Report details the AU's efforts to manage continental security crises. Key outcomes include the authorization of a 7,500-strong Multinational Joint Task Force (MJTF) to combat Boko Haram and a new tiered funding model for the AU budget. However, the report notes significant setbacks, such as the deferral of the Commission of Inquiry report on South Sudan and deep divisions within the International Contact Group on Libya. It also highlights the high risk of election-related violence across 18 African states in 2015 and the ongoing struggle to defeat al-Shabaab in Somalia.

The document examines how the International Criminal Court's (ICC) approach to victim and witness participation can contribute to healing and social recognition for those affected by mass violence. It highlights that while the court process can provide a sense of justice and a public platform for suffering, its therapeutic success depends on procedural justice—specifically benevolence, neutrality, and respect—and the provision of psychosocial support. The brief also notes the tension between the court's legal objectives and victims' expectations for reparations, which some may perceive as a means of silencing their accounts.

The paper identifies a rise in conflict events and fatalities in Africa since 2010, concentrated in five countries: Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan, CAR, and Somalia. It uses the International Futures modelling system to project three scenarios to 2063: a 'Base Case' of continued moderate growth, an 'African Renaissance' of inclusive growth and stability, and 'Politics of the Belly' characterized by elite exploitation and instability. The authors argue that governance is the primary driver of stability and that while democratisation is a general trend, the transition period often increases the risk of violence.

The document examines the systemic marginalisation of police components within the African Union's (AU) security architecture, which is dominated by military perspectives. It identifies critical gaps in police-specific doctrine, training, and resourcing, while highlighting the operational difficulties of managing diverse police contingents in high-risk environments. The paper argues that for African-led PSOs to be effective, the AU must develop a distinct police identity, harmonise ranking systems, and reduce reliance on external donor funding.

The analysis finds that armed conflict in Africa generally follows a global pattern of decline when measured relative to population growth, though this was disrupted by the Cold War and has seen a recent uptick since 2010. Africa is uniquely characterized by high levels of 'non-state conflict'—violence between armed groups not involving the government—which the author attributes to weak governance. While terrorism is rising globally, the Middle East is currently experiencing faster growth than Africa. The paper also highlights that internal conflicts now dominate globally over interstate wars, and warns that climate change may increase local conflicts over resources in northern and southern Africa.

The document analyzes the African Group's engagement at the UN Human Rights Council, noting a tension between a desire for regional leadership and a tendency to grant accused governments veto power over resolutions. While some 'human rights-friendly' states consistently support country-specific resolutions, others systematically abstain or oppose them, leading to an uneven response to crises across the continent and globally.

The policy brief argues that peace agreements in the DRC, specifically the Lusaka Ceasefire Agreement and the Addis Ababa Framework Agreement (AAFA), reflect shifts in economic power between the eastern Kivus and the southern Katanga province. While early conflicts and the ICGLR were driven by the exploitation of coltan and other minerals in the east by Rwanda and Uganda, the subsequent rise of copper and cobalt investments in Katanga shifted geopolitical influence toward SADC states.

The document evaluates South Africa's reintegration into global affairs and its role as a leader for the African agenda. While acknowledging South Africa's success in joining platforms like the G-20 and BRICS and its significant economic investments in Africa, the author identifies a 'twin deficit': a lack of consistency between diplomatic actions and constitutional values (democracy and human rights), and a 'lone-wolf' approach that alienates regional partners. The brief recommends that Pretoria move away from a pragmatic 'do no harm' approach toward issue-based partnerships and institutional reforms within the Department of International Relations and Co-operation (DIRCO) to regain credibility as a trusted interlocutor in African conflicts.

The document assesses South Africa's role as an emerging global actor in peace and security, specifically its interactions with the UN peacebuilding architecture (PBC, PBSO, and PBF). It highlights South Africa's experience in mediation and peacekeeping in countries like the DRC and Burundi, while noting a lack of systematic staffing of South Africans in the UN system. The paper emphasizes the potential of South-South cooperation, exemplified by the IBSA Fund, and recommends that South Africa leverage the 2015 UN peacebuilding review to promote African perspectives and national ownership of peace processes.

The emergence of the Islamic State represents a significant shift in global jihadism, offering a divisive alternative to al-Qaeda. Africa is particularly vulnerable due to the presence of established radical Islamist groups and the potential return of thousands of battle-hardened African fighters from Iraq and Syria. The document warns that the Islamic State's model of territorial occupation and its extreme ideology could destabilise several African regions, particularly North and West Africa. It argues that governments should avoid draconian counter-terrorism measures, which often fuel radicalisation, and instead pursue criminal justice-based approaches that address local drivers of discontent.

The policy brief examines the tension between national interests and human rights values in the foreign policies of emerging democracies like Brazil, India, Indonesia, and South Africa. While these states have collaborated with established democracies on specific crises in Myanmar, North Korea, and Libya, the author identifies significant cleavages driven by a preference for sovereignty, non-intervention, and economic interests. The document highlights how historical grievances against Northern hegemony and fear of reciprocal criticism of domestic records inhibit a consistent pro-human rights stance. However, it notes that transnational advocacy, the globalisation of media, and international mechanisms like the UN Human Rights Council provide pathways to pressure states toward greater accountability.

The research paper assesses the 2014 US-Africa Summit and the 'US strategy toward Sub-Saharan Africa', arguing that while economic growth in Africa is rising, democratic governance remains a 'chronic twin-deficit' alongside peace and security. It notes that the rise of emerging powers like China, which saw trade with Africa grow from 'US$3 billion in 2002 to around US$192 billion in 2012', has provided African states with financial alternatives that may 'corrosive impact on the pace of the democratisation agenda'. The author suggests the US should move beyond supporting 'minimalist electoral outcomes' and instead support the African Union's African Peer Review Mechanism and African Governance Architecture to foster robust, accountable institutions.

The report examines the deteriorating political climate in Burundi as it approaches the 2015 elections. It highlights the ruling CNDD-FDD party's efforts to restrict political space, its attempts to amend the constitution to allow President Pierre Nkurunziza a third term, and the role of the Imbonerakure youth wing in intimidating opponents. While the army is viewed as stable, the report warns that the Imbonerakure and a restrictive legal environment pose significant risks to stability.

The document presents findings from a 2013 South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) survey of 60 diplomats and experts in Pretoria and Addis Ababa. It argues that while South Africa's commitment to an 'African Agenda' and peace resolution is respected, its overall strategic direction has become 'confusing' and 'obfuscated' under President Zuma. The briefing warns against 'trophy diplomacy'—attempting to project global influence before maturing as a geopolitical entity—and recommends reviewing the Foreign Policy White Paper to better balance relations between Africa, the West, and the emerging South. It specifically suggests that South Africa leverage shared priorities between East and Southern Africa to resolve stalled negotiations for the Tri-Partite Free Trade Area between COMESA, the ECA, and SADC.

The 2014 South African Defence Review describes the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) as being in a 'critical state of decline' due to obsolescence, force imbalance, and unsustainable budgeting. The review proposes a long-term rejuvenation plan through four planning milestones extending to 2034, requiring significant budget increases. However, the author argues that the review's 'mandate-driven' approach is overly expansive given South Africa's financial constraints and actual tasks. The brief recommends refocusing the SANDF on peace operations, downsizing bloated staffing structures, and reforming the department's accountability and procurement legislation.

The document examines the evolution of democratic governance in Africa from the OAU era to the AU era, focusing on the APRM and ACDEG. It argues that while the continent has shifted from 'politics of the bullet' to 'politics of the ballot', significant challenges remain, including 'illiberal democracies' and slow implementation of governance reviews. The author advocates for stronger synergies between the African Governance Architecture (AGA) and the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA), increased domestic funding for National Programmes of Action (NPoAs), and a balanced role for non-state actors to prevent 'state capture' of these initiatives.

The report identifies diverse strategies used by developing countries to protect tropical forests, ranging from national-scale policies in Brazil and India to community-led projects in Madagascar and Kenya. It highlights the effectiveness of REDD+ programs, payments for ecosystem services (PES), and governance reforms, while noting that success is often linked to broader socioeconomic development and the use of remote sensing technology for enforcement.

The document evaluates the African Union's (AU) efforts to promote democracy through electoral perspectives, arguing that while AU declarations have positively influenced the electoral landscape, elections often remain 'democratic liabilities' rather than assets. It identifies key setbacks including the resurgence of military coups, tenure elongation (the 'third term agenda'), and the refusal of incumbents to concede power. The author critiques AU election monitoring for being undermined by poor field coverage, a short-term focus on election-day events, and a tendency to be less critical of incumbents seeking re-election. The paper concludes that AU reports lack legal force and often conflict with domestic observer findings, necessitating a shift toward long-term monitoring and stronger collaboration with local civil society.