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In 2025, global coal power capacity increased by 3.5% while generation fell by 0.6%, reflecting a trend where coal plants act as 'system insurance' rather than primary power sources. This gap is most prominent in China and India, where record-high completions coexist with falling generation due to rapid wind and solar expansion. While the number of countries proposing new coal projects decreased from 38 in 2024 to 32 in 2025, and Latin America reached a state of no new proposals, some regions like the US and EU delayed planned closures due to energy security and political intervention. South Korea has committed to a 2040 coal phase-out, contrasting with Japan's more gradual approach focused on ammonia co-firing and efficiency improvements.

In 2025, global coal capacity increased by 3.5% while coal-generated electricity decreased by 0.6%, reflecting a shift where coal serves as backup capacity rather than a primary source. This trend is most prominent in China and India, where record capacity additions coexist with falling production due to the rise of renewables. While the number of countries planning new coal projects fell to 32 in 2025, some nations like the US and EU delayed plant closures for energy security. In Turkey, planned coal capacity has plummeted from 57.5 GW in 2015 to 0.7 GW by 2025, though tensions remain between social demand for transition and government policies such as guaranteed purchase mechanisms for coal plants through 2030.

In 2025, global coal capacity increased by 3.5% while generation fell by 0.6%, driven largely by record additions in China and India. These countries are building coal plants for system reliability and energy security, even as renewables displace coal's role in meeting demand. The report notes a geographic narrowing of coal expansion, with only 32 countries proposing or building new plants, and highlights the specific challenges facing Ukraine's energy recovery following Russian attacks on its infrastructure.

The global iron and steel industry faces a 'coal lock-in crisis' as blast furnace (BF) capacity continues to expand despite decarbonization targets. While electric arc furnace (EAF) and direct reduced iron (DRI) capacities are growing, the transition is slowed by massive legacy assets in China and aggressive new coal-based developments in India. Green hydrogen remains a critical but underutilized bottleneck, with only 2% of operating DRI capacity using it as a primary reductant. The report highlights a significant gap between announced net-zero goals and actual industrial investment, particularly regarding the relining of existing blast furnaces.

The document details the global cobalt market, highlighting the extreme concentration of mine production in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and refining in China. It examines the shift toward battery-enabled end-uses, the role of Chinese investment in global supply, and the social risks associated with artisanal mining in the DRC.

The report finds that TotalEnergies' investment strategy heavily favors fossil fuels, with 4.8 dollars invested in oil and gas for every dollar spent on integrated power in 2025. The company's 2030 production targets are projected to be at least 59% higher than levels required for NZE alignment. While diversifying into renewables, the report notes this is largely through acquisitions and remains marginal, with oil and gas expected to represent 83% of the energy mix by 2030. Additionally, the company is expanding its LNG capacity and gas power production, while relying on CCUS and offsets to meet emissions targets it has recently modified, including a statement in 2026 that it could no longer commit to a 'net zero' objective.

The briefing argues that while climate and sustainable development goals are theoretically synergistic, actual policy coherence is hindered by political inequality, vested interests, and the prioritization of economic growth. Through analysis of nine countries and global NDC data, the research demonstrates that coherence is not a neutral technocratic exercise but a political process with significant distributional consequences, often burdening vulnerable groups when political will for equity is absent.

The document assesses the UN climate regime's transition into an 'implementation era' following the completion of the Paris Agreement Rulebook. It identifies systemic inefficiencies, including a predominance of procedural over substantive decisions, overlapping mandates of constituted bodies, and significant funding gaps for developing countries. The authors argue that the regime is hindered by a de facto veto system based on consensus and the influence of fossil fuel lobbyists. Key recommendations include streamlining negotiation agendas, adopting formal voting rules, formally closing the Kyoto Protocol, and integrating the UNFCCC with other Rio Conventions to address the root causes of the climate crisis.

In 2025, global coal capacity increased by 3.5% while production fell by 0.6%, as coal is increasingly used as 'system insurance' rather than a primary energy source. While the number of countries pursuing new coal projects dropped to 32, China and India continue massive expansions. In Indonesia, the growth of captive coal plants for nickel and aluminium processing contradicts national climate commitments, with the RUPTL 2025-2034 continuing to plan for on-grid coal investment despite a formal moratorium.

The document outlines the Responsible Policy Engagement (RPE) Framework to help EU businesses align their direct and indirect advocacy with climate goals. It warns that legacy fossil fuel interests often dominate trade associations, creating a false impression of business consensus against climate policy. The guide provides a five-step process for companies—commit, engage, align trade orgs, allocate spending, and disclose—and offers specific recommendations for trade associations to be more representative and for EU policymakers to close transparency gaps, particularly within the European Council.

Australia's coal sector saw a decline in methane emissions in FY2025, but this was largely due to mine closures and disruptions at underground sites like Grosvenor. Meanwhile, coal mines increased their use of carbon offsets by 40% to meet Safeguard Mechanism baselines. The report also raises integrity concerns regarding Safeguard Mechanism Credits (SMCs) issued to open-cut mines, suggesting they may result from accounting changes rather than actual emissions reductions.

Satellite observations of methane plumes from coal mines increased by approximately 1,400% between 2019 and 2024, yet a significant gap remains between theoretical detectability and actual monitoring. While 71% of global coal production is located in regions with favourable conditions for detection, only 10% of hard coal production has been observed via satellite. This discrepancy is attributed to factors such as satellite overpass frequency and instrument tasking priorities. High detection rates in Canada and Poland are linked to regional prioritisation by Carbon Mapper and regulatory scrutiny under the EU Methane Regulation, whereas major producers like India, South Africa, and Australia show substantial monitoring gaps despite favourable geography.

Global coal mine methane (CMM) emissions remained broadly steady at 34.7 million tonnes in 2023, despite an 8% increase in global coal production since 2021. This trend undermines the Global Methane Pledge's goal to cut anthropogenic methane emissions by 30% by 2030. Analysis reveals significant data gaps, as six of the nine largest emitters failed to submit official 2023 CMM data to the UNFCCC. Independent estimates from the IEA, GEM, and satellite data often diverge sharply from official figures, particularly in South Africa, Indonesia, and Russia, suggesting widespread underreporting and a reliance on outdated emission factors rather than mine-level measurements.

Coal mine methane (CMM) emissions remained steady at approximately 34.7 million tonnes in 2023 despite rising coal production, indicating a failure to align with the Global Methane Pledge. The report highlights a critical data gap, estimating that 89% of emissions were unreported to the UNFCCC in 2023 and that 87% of global production relies on generic emission factors rather than direct measurement. While satellite monitoring is increasing, it currently captures only 10% of hard coal production. Technically, 54-63% of CMM emissions could be mitigated by 2030 using proven technologies, with drainage station capture offering significant potential at negative net cost and ventilation air methane (VAM) oxidation capable of cutting nearly a quarter of emissions.

The report highlights significant gaps and uncertainties in global coal mine methane (CMM) emissions reporting, noting that 89% of emissions were left unreported in 2023. It criticizes the reliance on generic emission factors (Tiers 1 and 2) used for 87% of global coal production and advocates for the transition to direct, facility-level measurements (Tier 3) to increase data confidence and support mitigation policies.

Ember recommends that governments mandate direct measurement and reporting for all coal mines, integrating satellite and independent data to identify super-emitters. The report advocates for banning venting from drainage systems, implementing binding reduction requirements for large emitters, and creating incentive mechanisms for ventilation air methane (VAM) mitigation. It further emphasizes the necessity of phasing down coal use and requiring comprehensive mine-closure plans to prevent ongoing emissions from decommissioned sites.

The report analyzes greenwashing regulations in 12 countries, finding that while core principles of truthfulness and transparency are common, there is significant uncertainty regarding what constitutes adequate evidence for substantiation. It highlights that current frameworks often place a disproportionate burden on SMEs and smallholders and suggests that the credibility of voluntary sustainability standards (VSSs) needs clearer recognition criteria.

The report finds that by 2025, fossil fuel power generation fell below its peak in all 38 OECD member countries, driven by the rapid scaling of solar and wind energy. This trend is extending to emerging markets, with 2025 marking the first year this century (excluding 2020) that non-OECD fossil generation fell, specifically in China and India. The transition is increasingly driven by economic imperatives, as the levelized cost of solar and onshore wind is now 60% lower than combined cycle gas turbines.

The US government has shifted toward taking equity stakes in private critical mineral projects to diversify supply chains and reduce dependence on China, which dominates the mining and refining of minerals like gallium and rare earth elements. While seven such projects were announced in 2025, the document argues that equity alone is insufficient for long-term stability. It highlights the MP Materials deal—which included a price floor and offtake commitment—as a model for providing demand safeguards. The author recommends establishing a centralized, congressionally authorized program to coordinate these investments and pair them with demand-side policies to ensure a sustainable domestic industry.

The report asserts that metallurgical coal demand is plateauing as the steel industry shifts toward low-carbon technologies like electric arc furnaces (EAFs) and green hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI). While some governments and financial institutions remain bullish on long-term growth, particularly in Asia, the document predicts a 4.8% drop in met coal consumption between 2025 and 2030. It highlights the risk of stranded assets, noting that 145 companies are planning expansions that could increase global capacity by 580 million tonnes per year. The report recommends scrapping subsidies for traditional steel, lowering industrial electricity prices, and using public procurement to prioritise green steel to accelerate the transition.