Declining emissions in Australia’s coal sector mask growing offset use

Australia's coal sector reported declining methane emissions in FY2025, but the report finds this was driven by operational disruptions and accounting shifts rather than genuine abatement. Coal mines increased their use of offsets by 40% to meet compliance, often using CO2-based credits to offset methane emissions. The report warns that Safeguard Mechanism Credits issued to open-cut mines may reflect accounting effects rather than real reductions, citing significant discrepancies between reported data and independent satellite and airborne measurements at sites like Hail Creek.

• Australia's coal mine methane emissions continued a long-term decline in FY2025, with estimated emissions between 22.1 and 22.4 MtCO2e, representing a decrease of approximately 3.5% compared to FY2024.
• The decline in emissions is primarily attributed to operational disruptions and production decreases at underground mines rather than on-site abatement. For instance, the Grosvenor mine saw emissions drop by 1.07 MtCO2e after operations were halted for most of the year following an explosion.
• Coal facilities significantly increased their reliance on offsets to comply with the Safeguard Mechanism in FY2025, using approximately 6.3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) of offsets, a 40% increase from the previous year.
• There is a mismatch between the types of emissions produced and the offsets used; while methane makes up 61% of coal mining greenhouse gas emissions, over 58% of the Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) used in FY2025 came from CO2-focused projects like avoided deforestation and savanna fire management.
• The issuance of Safeguard Mechanism Credits (SMCs) to open-cut mines, such as Hail Creek and Carmichael, raises integrity concerns because these credits may result from accounting changes and baseline settings rather than actual abatement.
• Independent measurements suggest significant underreporting of emissions at the Hail Creek mine. Satellite observations from 2021 estimated emissions were more than 35 times higher than reported, while airborne measurements in 2022 and 2023 found them to be four to six times higher.

APA

Setiawan, D., & Aghdasi, S. (2026). Declining emissions in Australia’s coal sector mask growing offset use. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/04/Declining-emissions-in-Australias-coal-sector-mask-growing-offset-use-1.pdf

Chicago

Setiawan, Dody, and Sougol Aghdasi. Declining emissions in Australia’s coal sector mask growing offset use. Ember, 2026. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/04/Declining-emissions-in-Australias-coal-sector-mask-growing-offset-use-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Setiawan |first1=Dody |last2=Aghdasi |first2=Sougol |title=Declining emissions in Australia’s coal sector mask growing offset use |publisher=Ember |date=30 April 2026 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/04/Declining-emissions-in-Australias-coal-sector-mask-growing-offset-use-1.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{setiawan2026declining, author = {Setiawan, Dody and Aghdasi, Sougol}, title = {{Declining emissions in Australia’s coal sector mask growing offset use}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/04/Declining-emissions-in-Australias-coal-sector-mask-growing-offset-use-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }