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The document analyzes how Colombia and Nigeria employ narratives of development, energy security, and energy transition to justify oil and gas production, arguing that these stories often rely on inaccurate or outdated premises that entrench carbon dependency. It suggests that civil society and researchers can counter these narratives by demanding transparency, challenging flawed evidence, and promoting science-based alternatives for a just transition.

The report argues that European oil and gas companies are pursuing LNG projects in Africa that expose host countries to significant financial and environmental risks. Due to delayed revenue-sharing structures and a predicted global LNG supply glut by the 2030s, African states face the prospect of stranded assets and debt traps. The document highlights a contradiction between Europe's domestic decarbonization goals and its promotion of fossil fuel infrastructure in Africa, while noting that high breakeven costs make African producers particularly vulnerable to price competition.

The document challenges six common arguments used to justify financial support for gas expansion, asserting that new gas projects are incompatible with a 1.5°C warming limit and that global gas demand will peak by 2030.

The report finds that the 20 largest European banks provided US$200.3 billion to companies expanding upstream and midstream oil and gas between 2021 and 2023, with Barclays and HSBC as the largest supporters. Despite net zero pledges, most banks lack robust policies to end corporate financing for fossil fuel expansion, and financing to diversified oil and gas companies remains overwhelmingly directed toward fossil fuel activities rather than sustainable transitions.

The Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region is planning an estimated US$123.6 billion in new LNG infrastructure, primarily concentrated in Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil. Mexico has the world's third-largest planned LNG export buildout at 73.6 mtpa, largely intended to export U.S. gas from the Permian Basin. Argentina is proposing the 30 mtpa Argentina GNL Terminal to export gas from the Vaca Muerta shale basin, a project described as a "carbon bomb." Brazil is pursuing the world's fourth-largest LNG import expansion at 36.5 mtpa to reduce reliance on Bolivian gas and mitigate hydropower instability during droughts. These developments risk creating stranded assets and locking the region into gas dependence, contradicting IEA recommendations that the LNG trade peak this decade to limit warming to 1.5“. The report argues that the region's abundant renewable resources offer a more sustainable alternative to fossil fuel volatility.

The report uses a GTAP-E model to find that a USD 100/t carbon levy would generally reduce GDP and household incomes across Africa, increase global food prices, and reduce the supply of maritime services. It highlights that African importers already face disproportionately high freight rates, which a carbon tax would exacerbate. The authors recommend that the IMO implement a redistribution mechanism based on climate vulnerability and historical emissions, providing direct grants for out-of-sector projects like green hydrogen and resilient agriculture.

ClientEarth's response to CP24/12 advocates for mandatory climate disclosures aligned with TCFD and ISSB standards, specifically calling for an 'atmospheric viability test' for mineral companies to prevent stranded asset risk. The organization argues against voluntary sustainability-labelled debt disclosures, urging for contractually binding commitments to prevent greenwashing, and cautions against reducing issuer liability for forward-looking climate statements.

The briefing examines the expansion of LNG infrastructure in Latin America and the Caribbean, highlighting significant planned investments in Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil. It argues that these projects risk becoming stranded assets and conflict with global climate goals to limit warming to 1.5°C, suggesting that the region should instead prioritize its abundant renewable energy resources.

The 2024 Private Equity Climate Risks Scorecard reveals that the energy portfolios of 21 analyzed private equity firms are responsible for 1.17 gigatons of annual CO2 equivalent emissions. As of July 2024, 66 percent of these portfolios remain invested in fossil fuels, primarily in upstream fossil fuels, LNG terminals, and coal plants. The report argues that these investments expose firms and their investors—including public sector pension funds—to significant financial risks such as asset stranding, citing the bankruptcy of at least 60 U.S. coal companies between 2012 and 2022. The firms are evaluated against standards including science-based targets, fossil fuel disclosure, energy transition plans, environmental justice, and lobbying transparency.

The report argues that Senegal's investment in LNG is a high-risk gamble that could lead to stranded assets and entrenched fossil fuel dependency, especially as European demand is forecast to decline. It suggests that prioritizing renewable energy is a safer and more effective path to meeting energy targets and economic growth.

The report examines the push for natural gas as a 'transition fuel' in South Africa, contrasting government plans with the environmental and financial risks of stranded assets. It details the activities and financing of Kinetiko Energy's Mpumalanga Gas Project and Renergen's Virginia gas field, highlighting significant concerns regarding groundwater contamination, methane leakage, and a lack of transparency in governance.

The document evaluates the suitability of NGFS, IEA, and NITI Aayog scenarios for the Indian context, highlighting that global models often underestimate India's specific macroeconomic risks. It details transmission channels from macro-variables to micro-level financial risks and analyzes case studies from the ECB, Bank of England, Bank Negara Malaysia, and the Central Bank of Colombia. The authors propose a phased roadmap for the Reserve Bank of India, moving from preliminary top-down exercises to the development of in-house macroeconomic models and comprehensive bottom-up stress tests over a long-term horizon.

The report examines Senegal's transition to an LNG exporter, highlighting risks such as high breakeven prices, potential stranded assets, and socio-economic disruptions to coastal fishing communities. It argues that relying on optimistic revenue projections is risky given the IEA's projected decline in natural gas demand by 2050 and recommends prioritizing renewable energy and strategic revenue management to avoid fossil fuel lock-in.

The document argues that the steel sector is no longer 'hard-to-abate' due to advancements in green hydrogen and electric arc furnaces. It challenges the distinction between metallurgical and thermal coal, warns against reliance on CCUS, and highlights the risk of stranded assets. The briefing urges financial institutions to adopt strict sectoral policies to end financing for new blast furnaces and metallurgical coal projects while increasing investment in sustainable alternatives.

The document examines TotalEnergies' use of the bond market to secure long-term financing, noting a trend toward abnormally long maturities extending to 2064. It argues that these bonds provide the company with unrestricted funds to pursue fossil fuel expansion, contrary to IEA Net Zero scenarios, while creating systemic and financial risks for the banks and investors involved. The report identifies specific financial institutions facilitating these issuances and calls for a total cessation of support for companies developing new oil and gas projects.

The document analyzes TotalEnergies' reliance on the bond market, specifically highlighting a trend toward abnormally long maturities (up to 2064) that secures funding for decades of fossil fuel projects. It argues that these bonds provide the company with total freedom in fund allocation, enabling the expansion of oil and gas projects in 53 countries despite global climate goals. The briefing identifies a 'loophole' where banks facilitate these emissions to avoid having the debt on their own balance sheets, and warns investors of the systemic risk of 'stranded assets' as the world transitions to renewable energy.

Three companies—GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Power—control two-thirds of the global market for gas turbines in power plants currently under construction. While these firms are expanding through regional partnerships and promoting 'hydrogen-ready' technology, the report argues they face significant geopolitical and financial risks due to the rapid growth of renewables and the potential for gas power overcapacity.

Indonesia's electricity sector remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, with coal contributing 62% of generation in 2023. The report highlights a risk of stranded assets if new coal plants are built, as improving existing plant efficiency could lead to a 42 TWh surplus by 2030. It advocates for the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) targets, which aim for a 44% renewable share by 2030. Specifically, the report argues for shifting renewable investments toward coal-producing provinces like East Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, and South Sumatra to mitigate job losses and economic decline, estimating that expanding solar projects in these areas could create 96,000 high-skilled jobs and attract $9.4 billion USD in investment.

The report examines Indonesia's energy transition, highlighting the risk of stranded assets due to coal overcapacity and the potential for renewable energy to revitalize coal-dependent provinces. It compares the RUPTL 2021-2030 and JETP frameworks, suggesting that replacing planned coal capacity with solar power in regions like East Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, and South Sumatra could create 96,000 high-skilled jobs and attract $9.4 billion in investment.

The Canadian Climate Institute asserts that continuing the expansion of gas infrastructure for building heating creates financial risks for ratepayers and hinders climate targets. It advocates for an incremental transition to electric heat pumps and updated regulatory frameworks that consider alternatives to gas expansion, arguing that low-carbon gases like hydrogen and biomethane cannot realistically replace fossil gas for building heat due to cost and supply constraints.