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FISCAL POLICY IN SOUTH AFRICA: CLOSED INPUT-OUTPUT INCOME AND EMPLOYMENT MULTIPLIERS
The research paper calculates fiscal multipliers for South Africa using a closed input-output model based on 2018 data. It finds that the average income multiplier is 1.68 and the employment multiplier is 6.9, suggesting that public spending has a significant positive impact on GDP and job creation. The authors argue that the South African government's 2020 Budget, which proposes spending reductions of approximately R48 billion, will likely reduce GDP by R81 billion and destroy approximately 330,000 jobs due to these high multipliers and the existing negative output gap.
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Document type: Research paper
Canada's Federal Fossil Fuel Subsidies in 2020
The report finds that federal fossil fuel subsidies in Canada for FY 2019/20 totaled nearly CAD 600 million, though this is a conservative estimate due to missing data on tax-related subsidies and specific projects. It highlights a shift in government support from exploration toward infrastructure and exports, particularly for the natural gas sector. Key examples include a CAD 275 million transfer to LNG Canada and ongoing support for the Trans Mountain pipeline. The document also identifies carbon pricing exemptions as effective subsidies for fossil fuel consumption and notes that provincial subsidies generally outpace federal ones. It recommends that Canada include subsidy reform in its next Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and complete its G20 peer review by 2020.
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Document type: Report
How climate and nature-related factors are applied in the investment process
The report finds that while all surveyed infrastructure investors use ESG scoring frameworks, integration is most prevalent in qualitative evaluation and post-investment monitoring, with less emphasis on valuation modelling. Key drivers for ESG integration include financial returns, risk management, and brand reputation. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and physical climate risks are the most integrated factors, particularly in the energy, utilities, and transport sectors, whereas biodiversity remains the least integrated due to quantification challenges. The report notes a shift from simple negative screening toward a more nuanced approach where investors may acquire unsustainable assets to finance their transition to sustainability.
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Document type: Report
Enhancing the climate resilience of Africa’s water and energy infrastructure
The Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) used the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system and the Open Source Energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS) to model climate change impacts on seven strategic river basins in Sub-Saharan Africa. The analysis found that all basins face significant economic risks, with the Niger River potentially facing costs up to $200 billion and the Zambezi River showing the highest uncertainty with impacts between $50 billion and $125 billion. To mitigate these risks, SEI recommends that policy-makers integrate climate change expertise into infrastructure planning through technical guidelines, open-data repositories, and professional training programs.
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Document type: Fact sheet
New Zealand green bonds and infrastructure
The report highlights New Zealand's climate leadership through policies like the Zero Carbon Bill 2019 and the ban on new offshore oil and gas drilling. It notes that while the green bond market is small, it is growing, with total green and sustainability debt from New Zealand entities reaching NZD3.7bn. The document identifies significant investment needs in infrastructure, particularly in Auckland, and explores five key sectors for green investment: renewable energy, low-carbon transport, sustainable water management, sustainable waste management, and green buildings.
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Document type: Report
G20–AFRICA ENGAGEMENT: FINDING A ROADMAP TO SHARED DEVELOPMENT
The document examines how the G20 has shifted from crisis management to a broader development focus, resulting in targeted engagements with Africa. It compares China's Industrialisation Initiative, which leveraged existing bilateral ties and focused on skills transfer, with Germany's Compact with Africa (CwA), a demand-driven model focusing on regulatory reforms to attract private investment. It also notes Argentina's approach of deepening diplomatic access for African representatives. The authors argue that while engagement has increased, Africa remains structurally excluded from global norm-setting and requires greater capacity and consistent representation within the G20 to influence global economic governance.
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Document type: Research paper
MANAGING AFRICA’S RISING DEBT: TIME FOR A MULTI-PRONGED APPROACH
The document examines the shift in Africa's debt structure toward non-concessional and domestic loans, identifying drivers such as commodity price shocks and fiscal deficits. It assesses the debt-carrying capacity of various African nations using IMF and World Bank frameworks, noting that several countries are in debt distress or at high risk. The briefing details current coping mechanisms, including the issuance of long-term Eurobonds and novel financial products, and recommends enhancing domestic revenue mobilization, economic diversification, and the establishment of autonomous debt management offices.
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Document type: Policy brief
AFRICA’S RISING DEBT IMPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT FINANCING AND A SUSTAINABLE DEBT MANAGEMENT APPROACH
The document analyzes the resurgence of debt in Africa, noting that 19 countries have exceeded the 60% debt-to-GDP threshold. It identifies key drivers such as commodity price shocks, exchange rate volatility, and a shift from concessional to market-based loans. Through case studies of Nigeria and Morocco, it examines debt management strategies, including the use of Eurobonds and the importance of autonomous debt management offices, while recommending economic diversification and improved domestic resource mobilization to ensure long-term sustainability.
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Document type: Research paper
INFRASTRUCTURE AS AN ASSET CLASS IN AFRICA
The document examines the potential for African public pension funds and Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) to address an annual infrastructure investment deficit of $130–$170 billion. While these institutional investors possess long-term horizons and substantial assets—such as South Africa's $318 billion retirement fund industry—actual infrastructure investment remains low due to a preference for traditional assets, a lack of bankable project pipelines, and regulatory constraints. The paper analyzes the landscapes of five countries and identifies key barriers, including a shortage of liquid financial instruments and a lack of internal expertise to appraise complex infrastructure risks. It suggests that capacity building, resource pooling, and early engagement between developers and regulators are essential to stimulate institutional appetite for this asset class.
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Document type: Research paper
State of the Practice: Sustainability Standards for Infrastructure Investors
The report analyzes the proliferation of sustainability metrics in the infrastructure asset class, distinguishing between project screening tools and accounting tools. It identifies key challenges in standardization, such as the high degree of project idiosyncrasy (materiality), the trade-off between measuring management practices versus performance indicators, and the influence of varying regional regulatory regimes. The authors conclude that while there is a desire for a single industry standard, the complexity of infrastructure will likely lead to a continued diversification of tools, with pioneering investors often using multiple systems simultaneously to balance project-level relevance with portfolio-level aggregation.
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Document type: Executive summary
State of the Practice: Sustainability Standards for Infrastructure Investors
The report analyzes twelve sustainability standards for infrastructure, categorizing them into project screening tools (e.g., SuRe, Envision, CEEQUAL, ISCA, IFC Performance Standards) and accounting tools (e.g., SASB, TCFD, GHG Protocol, UN PRI). It evaluates these tools based on comprehensiveness, objectivity, clarity, transaction costs, and traction. The study finds that the industry lacks a single global standard, with investors often using multiple tools depending on the project's local context and regulatory regime. It highlights a fundamental tension between 'preservationist' public sector assessments, which determine if a project should be built, and 'conservationist' investor metrics, which focus on implementing projects in the most sustainable way possible.
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Document type: Report
CHINA, JAPAN, INDIA AND THE EAST AFRICA BLUE ECONOMY
The document analyzes the engagement of China, Japan, and India in East Africa, particularly Kenya and Tanzania, highlighting the strategic importance of maritime ports and transport corridors. It details significant infrastructure projects, such as the LAPSSET Corridor and the Mombasa port upgrades, while noting a persistent trade imbalance where East African nations export raw materials and import high-value finished goods. The author argues that while these investments offer growth opportunities, they require improved governance to ensure sustainable and inclusive development.
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Document type: Policy brief
Politics & Global Warming
The report finds broad support among US registered voters for international climate agreements, greenhouse gas emission reductions, and the transition to renewable energy. While political divisions exist, majorities across party lines support taxing or regulating pollution, funding renewable energy research, and investing in national infrastructure, particularly roads, bridges, and water systems.
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Document type: Report
Politics & Global Warming
The report finds broad support among U.S. registered voters for participating in the Paris COP21 agreement, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and transitioning to renewable energy. While political divisions exist, majorities across party lines support taxing or regulating pollution, funding renewable energy research, and investing in national infrastructure, particularly roads, bridges, and water systems.
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Document type: Report
IMPROVING BRAZIL’S AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY BY TARGETING INFRASTRUCTURE
The document examines how shifting regulatory environments in Brazil since the late 1990s have created market uncertainty and diminished the quality of transport infrastructure. It highlights that high transportation costs—such as soybean transport being nearly three times more expensive than in the U.S.—hinder agricultural productivity. The authors recommend realigning auction processes for highways, returning to a vertical integration framework for railways, and deregulating public ports to restore market incentives and improve infrastructure quality.
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Document type: Policy brief
Refreshing Africa’s future
The report finds that Africa is not on track to meet Sustainable Development Goal 6 (SDG 6) for universal WASH access by 2030. Using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system, the authors analyze three paths: a 'Current Path' where few countries meet targets; a 'Universal Access' scenario requiring aggressive investment; and a 'Balancing WASH' scenario that prioritizes high-impact, lower-cost improvements. While universal access offers the highest economic and health gains, it requires an additional US$122 billion in infrastructure spending and may force detrimental trade-offs in health and education budgets. The 'Balancing WASH' approach is presented as a more realistic alternative, delivering approximately 50% of the human development benefits of universal access at only 30% of the cost (US$36 billion).
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Document type: Research paper
THE NEW DEVELOPMENT BANK: MOVING THE BRICS FROM AN ACRONYM TO AN INSTITUTION
The New Development Bank (NDB) was established by the BRICS nations to address infrastructure funding deficits in emerging economies and to challenge the dominance of traditional international financial institutions. With an initial subscribed capital of $50 billion and a maximum authorised capital of $100 billion, the bank aims to provide a more equitable alternative to the World Bank and IMF. Initial lending, starting in the second quarter of 2016, is expected to focus on renewable energy projects, including wind, solar, and hydro power, while excluding nuclear energy. The NDB intends to distinguish itself through faster project approval cycles, lending in local currencies to mitigate exchange risks, and a commitment to avoid political conditions on its loans.
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Document type: Research paper
FINANCING DEVELOPMENT WITH FOSSIL FUEL SUBSIDIES
The report analyzes the reallocation of IDR 211 trillion (USD 15.6 billion) in fuel subsidy savings in Indonesia during 2015. It finds that funds were primarily redirected toward ministries' budgets, capital injections for state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and regional transfer funds. The study concludes that this shift from consumption to productive investment is aligned with the National Medium-Term Development Plan (RPJMN) 2015–2019, likely generating higher GDP and employment, and reducing the budget's vulnerability to international oil price volatility.
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Document type: Report
Roadmap for China: Scaling up GREEN BOND market Issuance
The report outlines a strategy to expand China's green bond market, emphasizing the need for private capital to meet an annual environmental investment requirement of RMB 2-4 trillion. It identifies key barriers, including limited issuer knowledge and the lack of a long-term project pipeline, and recommends strategic demonstration issuances from policy banks, commercial banks, and state-owned enterprises to build market liquidity and confidence.
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Document type: Research paper
EASTERN PROMISES: NEW DATA ON CHINESE LOANS IN AFRICA, 2000 TO 2014
The paper estimates that Chinese financiers provided US$86.3 billion to African governments and state-owned enterprises between 2000 and 2014, a figure lower than many common beliefs. The authors argue that Chinese lending is driven by business interests—specifically generating construction contracts for Chinese firms—rather than a primary desire to secure natural resources. While transportation and energy are the largest sectors receiving funds, approximately one-third of the loans are secured by commodities or exports to mitigate risk in unstable environments. The authors warn that while a debt crisis has not yet occurred, rising debt levels and the unlikely nature of policy bank debt cancellation pose future risks.
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Document type: Research paper