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Headline Trends EU-27 Power Sector in 2021
In 2021, EU-27 electricity demand nearly returned to 2019 levels, with renewables reaching a record 1068 TWh and accounting for 37% of production. A critical shift occurred in the second half of 2021 when soaring gas prices made fossil gas more expensive than coal, leading new renewable output to predominantly replace gas rather than coal. While wind and solar output hit record highs (547 TWh), overall power sector emissions fell by an average of 2.5% per year since 2019, which is less than half the 6% annual decline required to align with a 1.5C pathway. Nuclear power continued a long-term structural decline, accounting for 26% of production in 2021.
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Document type: Report
European Electricity Review 2022
The European Electricity Review 2022 identifies a 'paradigm shift' in the EU power sector where soaring gas prices in 2021 led new renewable energy to replace fossil gas instead of coal. While wind and solar reached record generation of 547 TWh in 2021, overall power sector emissions declined at less than half the rate required to meet 1.5°C targets. The report highlights that coal phase-outs are stalling in some regions, such as Poland, and that the structural decline of nuclear power is further slowing decarbonization by forcing renewables to replace lost nuclear capacity rather than fossil fuels.
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Document type: Report
Cooling for human comfort and safety
The report highlights the escalating risks of extreme heat on human health and productivity, noting that 356,000 people died from extreme heat in 2019. It argues that while cooling demand is expected to soar—with space-cooling units potentially reaching 2.5 billion by 2030—this must be managed through sustainable solutions to avoid tripling global electricity demand by 2050. The text advocates for a mix of passive cooling, nature-based solutions, and energy-efficient active cooling, supported by policies like Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) and the appointment of Chief Heat Officers in cities such as Athens and Miami Dade County.
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Document type: Report
India’s Zombie Threat
The report identifies 27 GW of planned coal power plants in India as "zombie" assets that are superfluous to the country's electricity requirements for FY 2030. It asserts that India can meet its peak demand of 301 GW by FY 2030 through existing construction, solar capacity, and battery storage rather than new coal. Cancelling these projects would free up approximately Rs. 247,421 cr in capital expenditure and provide annual savings of Rs. 43,219 cr by substituting coal with renewables and storage.
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Document type: Report
Exploring New Electric Vehicle Roadmaps for China
The report analyzes the impact of different electric vehicle (EV) penetration scenarios in China—Pre-COVID-19, Current Policies, and 100% BEV—across two electricity decarbonization pathways. It concludes that while China's post-COVID-19 policies for new energy vehicles (NEVs) are positive, significant emission reductions in the light-duty vehicle (LDV) sector are only possible if coupled with a transformational shift to a low-carbon electricity sector. Without power sector decarbonization, even ambitious BEV scenarios would only reduce emissions by 9% to 13% by 2050 compared to pre-pandemic levels. To reach carbon neutrality by 2060, the report argues that a 100% BEV vehicle stock and a fully decarbonized power sector are required, which could reduce LDV emissions to zero and transport sector emissions by 790 MtCO2/yr by 2050.
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Document type: Report
National Framework for Leapfrogging to Energy-Efficient and Climate Friendly Commercial Refrigerating Appliances in Brazil
The proposal seeks USD 599,704 to help Brazil 'leapfrog' to sustainable commercial refrigeration by implementing Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) and energy labels for the first time in this sector. The project, implemented by UNEP, aims to reduce electricity demand and GHG emissions, as commercial refrigeration is estimated to account for 25% of energy consumption in an average Brazilian supermarket. Key activities include establishing a Policy Working Group, conducting a national market assessment, developing a Monitoring, Verification and Enforcement (MVE) framework, and creating guidelines for sustainable public procurement. The project also intends to share lessons learned with other MERCOSUR countries to create a regional multiplier effect.
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Document type: Report
Zero Carbon Electricity Soars in October
In October 2020, zero-carbon electricity sources in Europe, particularly wind and nuclear, outperformed fossil fuels, leading to a reduction in fossil fuel generation despite recovering electricity demand.
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Document type: Report
Vision or division?
The report finds that while renewable electricity generation in the EU is projected to nearly double by 2030, the region is not on track to meet the European Commission's recommended 55% emissions reduction. Seven countries—Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Germany, Italy, Poland, and Romania—are identified as the primary barriers to the transition, collectively accounting for 80% of projected 2030 power sector emissions.
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Document type: Report
Europe’s Electricity Demand Roars Back, Driving Up Coal Generation
The report finds that EU electricity demand nearly returned to 2019 levels by August 2020, leading to a surge in coal generation. This trend was exacerbated by record low nuclear output in France, which created a supply gap that wind and solar growth could not fully fill, resulting in coal generation reaching its highest level since March 2020.
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Document type: Report
POTENTIAL IMPLEMENTATION RISKS IN THE PILOT ENERGY EFFICIENCY AUCTION IN RORAIMA
The report analyzes a pilot energy efficiency (EE) auction in Boa Vista, Roraima, identifying risks related to auction design, measurement and verification (M&V) methodologies, and the misalignment of incentives for electricity distributors. It suggests that the unique energy situation in Roraima—which is not part of the National Interconnected System and relies on expensive diesel plants—makes it a suitable pilot site but may limit the external validity of the results for other Brazilian states. Key recommendations include moving to open second-price auctions to avoid the 'winner's curse' and considering synthetic control methodology for M&V to maximize EE potential.
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Document type: Report
Como melhorar a eficiência no setor de ar-condicionado? O papel da Zona Franca de Manaus
The document argues that Brazil's air conditioning sector suffers from low energy efficiency compared to international standards, partly due to industrial policies in the Zona Franca de Manaus (ZFM) that create distortions. It finds that the Basic Productive Process (PPB) requirements, such as the use of outdated national compressors, hinder the adoption of inverter technology and overall efficiency. Despite significant tax exemptions, the sector's productive and energy efficiency deteriorated between 2003 and 2015, contrasting with the stability of the broader Brazilian manufacturing industry. The authors recommend aligning industrial and energy policies to promote competitiveness and higher efficiency standards.
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Document type: Policy brief
IMPROVING EFFICIENCY FOR AIR CONDITIONERS
The document argues that Brazil's air conditioning (AC) sector lags in energy efficiency compared to international peers and that the current industrial policy in the Manaus Free Trade Zone (ZFM) creates distortions that hinder efficiency gains. Despite significant tax exemptions, the Basic Production Process (PPB) requirements—such as the mandatory use of domestically produced, outdated non-inverter compressors—conflict with energy efficiency goals. The brief recommends aligning industrial policy with energy performance standards and labeling policies to foster a more competitive and efficient sector.
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Document type: Policy brief
O papel da Zona Franca de Manaus na eficiência do setor de ar-condicionado
The report finds that the air-conditioning sector in Brazil suffers from low energy efficiency compared to international standards, with a deterioration in both productive and energy efficiency between 2003 and 2015. Despite significant tax exemptions provided by the Zona Franca de Manaus (ZFM), which accounted for approximately R$ 285 million in 2015 for the AC sector, these incentives have not translated into improved efficiency or higher wages for workers. The authors argue that the Basic Productive Process (PPB) requirements, particularly those mandating the use of outdated national compressors, create distortions that hinder the adoption of modern technologies like inverter compressors and suppress competition. Consequently, rising sales of inefficient AC units, driven by heatwaves and increased income, have led to a 237% increase in residential electricity consumption for ACs between 2005 and 2017.
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Document type: Report
Global Electricity Review
The 2020 Global Electricity Review reports a record 3% fall in global coal-fired electricity generation and a 2% drop in power sector CO2 emissions in 2019. While coal collapsed in the EU and US, generation rose in China, which now accounts for over 50% of global coal generation. Wind and solar generation grew by 15%, providing 8% of the world's electricity. However, the report argues that these declines are largely due to one-off factors and that current progress is insufficient to meet the IPCC's 1.5°C scenario, which would require coal generation to collapse by 11% annually until 2030.
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Document type: Report
Water and energy in California: planning for a sustainable future under political and climatic change
The report examines the deep links between California's water and energy sectors, noting that water services account for approximately 20% of electricity and 30% of natural gas consumption, while hydropower provides an average of 15% of electricity. Using WEAP and LEAP modeling, the study finds that water conservation and potable reuse can reduce energy demands and costs, whereas desalination increases them. To achieve carbon neutrality by 2045, the report emphasizes the necessity of massive growth in solar, wind, and energy storage, alongside the continued role of low-cost hydropower. It also warns that federal policy interference could increase electricity production costs by $23 billion and raise CO2 emissions by 16% compared to the state's policy baseline.
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Document type: Report
Integrated Resource Plan (IRP2019)
The IRP 2019 identifies an immediate risk of power shortages in South Africa due to the declining energy availability factor (EAF) of Eskom's fleet and the decommissioning of old coal plants. To mitigate this, the plan recommends a medium-term power purchase programme, the life extension of the Koeberg nuclear plant to 2044, and the continued operation of plants despite minimum emission standard non-compliance. Long-term, the plan envisions a diversified energy mix shifting from coal toward renewables, gas, and nuclear, while emphasizing a 'just transition' to protect jobs and local economies. It specifically proposes 2,500 MW of new nuclear capacity and the integration of the Grand Inga Hydropower Project from the DRC.
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Document type: Report
Energy and Misallocation: Evidence from Brazil
The research finds a positive correlation between energy and resource misallocation in Brazilian industry, suggesting that improving the allocation of resources to the most productive firms would simultaneously increase aggregate productivity and energy efficiency. Using data from 2007 to 2015, the authors demonstrate that resource misallocation increased over this period, acting as the primary barrier to productivity growth. While the potential aggregate output gains from fully equalizing revenue productivity are substantial, ranging from 77.9% to 96.2%, the analysis reveals that capital distortions are significantly more impactful than electricity distortions in generating these losses. The study concludes that broad industrial policies targeting these binding distortions are more effective for improving aggregate energy efficiency than firm-level initiatives.
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Document type: Research paper
Solving the Global Cooling Challenge
The report warns that room air conditioner (RAC) stock could grow from 1.2 billion to 4.5 billion units by 2050, potentially increasing global temperatures by 0.5°C by 2100. It argues that conventional efficiency improvements and the Kigali Amendment are insufficient to offset this growth. The authors propose a '5X solution'—technology with five times less climate impact than current standards—which could prevent 100 gigatons of CO2e emissions by 2050 and save US$1.4 trillion in power generation capital costs.
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Document type: Report
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY: A LOOK AT BRAZILIAN INDUSTRY
The document analyzes energy efficiency (EE) and productive efficiency in 106 Brazilian industrial sectors. It finds that while the efficiency of typical firms improved between 2003 and 2015, the market share of the most efficient firms declined. The analysis suggests that resource reallocation—particularly correcting capital distortions—could significantly increase total factor productivity, far exceeding the gains from energy efficiency improvements alone. It argues that Brazil's EE policies have historically been reactive and focused on residential use, neglecting the industrial sector, which is the largest energy consumer.
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Document type: Policy brief
PANORAMA E DESAFIOS DA EFICIÊNCIA ENERGÉTICA NO BRASIL
The report argues that Brazil's energy efficiency (EE) policies have been reactive and focused on residential consumption, neglecting the industrial sector, which is the country's largest energy consumer. Economic analysis of 106 industrial sectors shows that while the efficiency of typical firms improved between 2003 and 2015, the market share of the most efficient firms decreased. The study finds a strong correlation between energy efficiency and productive efficiency, suggesting that a total reallocation of productive inputs (capital, labor, and electricity) could have increased aggregate productivity by 81% in 2015, though capital misallocation is the primary driver of these losses.
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Document type: Executive summary