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The 2026 Hormuz crisis, triggered by a US-Israel war with Iran, is projected to increase Türkiye's energy import bill by $14 billion by the end of 2026. This increase is driven by a 50% surge in Brent crude oil prices and a 45% rise in European gas prices. Türkiye's high import dependence—95% for natural gas, 83% for crude oil, and 60% for coal—makes its economy structurally vulnerable to global price shocks. Road transport is the largest contributor to the energy bill, accounting for nearly one-third of the total in 2025. The report suggests that transitioning to electric vehicles and heat pumps could permanently lower import costs, noting that 1 million electric cars could save $900 million annually and a 10% transition to heat pumps in homes could save $1 billion annually.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war has triggered a global energy crisis, causing Brent crude to reach USD 138/barrel and spiking natural gas prices, particularly in Asia. This disruption has led to increased food and fertiliser prices, slowed global GDP growth, and strained national budgets through increased fossil fuel subsidies. In response, 26 countries and regions have implemented clean energy measures, with Asia leading in both vulnerability to supply shocks and the acceleration of clean technology investments and deployments.

The document examines how India is managing an energy price shock resulting from conflict in Iran. To control inflation, the Indian government has absorbed costs by cutting fuel excise duties and increasing fertilizer subsidies, costing an estimated 590 billion Indian rupees between March and May 2026. The brief warns that continued shock absorption may drain budgets for grid modernization and renewable energy, while passing costs to the public would disproportionately harm low-income households through indirect inflationary effects on food and transport.

Libya is an upper-middle-income country in North Africa characterized by a vast desert interior and a densely populated Mediterranean coast. Its economy is overwhelmingly dependent on oil, which provides over 90% of government revenues and export earnings, though output is volatile due to political instability. Since the 2011 collapse of the Gaddafi regime, the country has faced political fragmentation, recurring civil conflict, and a contested hybrid governance system with parallel institutions in the east and west. Geographically, Libya serves as a strategic transit point for migration toward Europe, a role that heavily impacts the country.

Gabon is an upper-middle-income country in Central Africa characterized by significant natural resource wealth, particularly in oil and timber. Following a September 2023 coup that ended the Bongo family's long reign, the country is under a transition government led by Brice Oligui Nguema, aiming for elections on 12 April 2025. Despite its high GDP per capita driven by petroleum, Gabon faces persistent development challenges, including high youth unemployment, entrenched inequality, and a lack of economic diversification.

The document examines how reliance on imported oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exposes Asian economies to price shocks and supply disruptions, particularly those stemming from conflicts in the Middle East. It analyzes the economic impacts on countries like Singapore, Thailand, and Japan, highlighting how fuel price volatility drives inflation and weakens currencies. The report argues that returning to coal as a short-term fallback is economically and environmentally risky compared to renewables. It recommends investing in regional connected grids and clean technology supply chains to build long-term resilience and energy security.

Following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions, Russia has pivoted its fossil fuel exports toward Asia. While this has partially offset revenue losses from the European market, the report argues that Russia remains locked in a hydrocarbon-centric model that is increasingly misaligned with the decarbonisation trajectories of its primary Asian customers. China and India have leveraged discounted Russian oil and coal to support economic growth while simultaneously diversifying their energy portfolios and expanding renewable capacity. Vietnam has seen modest growth in Russian coal and nascent LNG trade, balancing energy security with sustainability goals. The report highlights structural bottlenecks, such as limited rail capacity for coal and the risks of a 'shadow fleet' for oil, as significant constraints on Russia's long-term export viability.

The document outlines the phased compliance milestones for importers under the European Methane Regulation (MER), specifically regarding the monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) of imported oil and gas. It highlights the difficulty importers face in gathering production segment data not routinely shared in supply chains and proposes a hybrid approach to manage these requirements while minimizing market disruption.

Since April 2025, the United States has imposed high tariffs on several ASEAN nations, leading these countries to prioritize negotiation and diversification over retaliation. While Vietnam and Thailand faced the highest tariffs (up to 46% and 36% respectively), most members are balancing individual bilateral talks with a coordinated regional response led by Malaysia as the 2025 ASEAN chair. Strategies include increasing U.S. imports of energy and aircraft, leveraging the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and implementing domestic stimulus packages, such as Thailand's USD 15 billion fund, to protect local industries.

The document reports a decline in Chinese crude oil consumption and LNG imports, alongside significant economic and regulatory volatility in the US oil and gas sector. It highlights corporate shifts at Shell and BP, the risk of USD 2.3 trillion in stranded fossil fuel assets, and various international developments in LNG and carbon capture.

The fact sheet details the severe environmental and humanitarian impacts of the conflict in Gaza, including the destruction of water, energy, and agricultural infrastructure. It identifies specific global arms manufacturers, fossil fuel companies, and financial institutions that support the Israeli military and economy, linking these actors to both 'climate crimes' and the ongoing crisis in Palestine.

The report concludes that the EU's demand for fossil gas and oil is in a long-term structural decline, making new production projects—especially in the Arctic—unnecessary and incompatible with 1.5°C warming limits. Analysis shows that existing production and current contracts will likely exceed EU demand by the 2030s in net-zero aligned scenarios, creating a risk of oversupply and stranded assets.

The report argues that the initial impact of the G7 and EU oil price caps has faded as Russia redirected exports to China, India, and Turkey and developed a 'shadow fleet' of tankers to circumvent sanctions. While Russia's nominal GDP grew by 3.6% in 2023, the economy shows signs of overheating with labor shortages and skyrocketing military spending. The authors recommend closing the 'refining loophole,' gradually lowering the crude oil price cap to $30 per barrel, and using U.S. secondary sanctions to pressure third-country intermediaries.

The report analyzes how the Russian War in Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions have disrupted decades of energy diplomacy. While Russian crude oil exports proved resilient by redirecting volumes to India and China, the gas sector faced a severe crisis due to its reliance on European pipelines. The document details the use of 'shadow fleets' and blending to circumvent oil price caps and the limited feasibility of redirecting pipeline gas. It concludes that Russia is becoming increasingly dependent on China and that the focus on survival and new fossil fuel markets has marginalized its domestic low-carbon agenda.

The report exposes how major fashion brands continue to indirectly fund the Russian economy through their reliance on polyester produced by Reliance Industries and Hengli Group, both of which import Russian oil. It further highlights the industry's lack of transparency regarding synthetic supply chains and the risk of brands sourcing polyester made from coal or fracked gas.

The Changing Markets Foundation found that 78% of 50 investigated fashion brands are linked to Reliance Industries (India) and Hengli Group (China), both of which source Russian oil. Despite many brands exiting the Russian market after the invasion of Ukraine, they continue to indirectly support the Russian economy through these synthetic fabric supply chains. The report also highlights risks of brands sourcing polyester made from coal and fracking gas, and criticizes the severe lack of transparency regarding synthetic fiber suppliers.

The EU is phasing out Russian oil, which accounted for over 25 percent of its 2021 imports. While replacing these streams is technically complex due to refinery design requirements regarding sulfur and density, the report argues that the EU can reduce its carbon footprint by sourcing lower-emissions crudes. For example, Saudi Arab Light is identified as a potential substitute for Russian Urals crude that could lower emissions. Additionally, the report suggests that using hydrotreated intermediates could reduce EU refinery hydrogen demand, which currently represents nearly 10 percent of EU natural gas imports from Russia.

A coalition of NGOs calls on Total shareholders to reject the company's climate strategy and leadership, citing insufficient emission reduction targets, planned increases in hydrocarbon production, and a lack of transparency regarding Scope 3 emissions.

The Biden administration announced on April 9, 2021, that it would not immediately shut down the Dakota Access Pipeline, despite a court ruling that its water crossing permit was issued unlawfully. The pipeline transports 600,000 barrels of crude oil daily near the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe's reservation, posing risks to drinking water. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is conducting an environmental and safety review, expected to conclude in early 2022, to determine if the pipeline should be permanently shut down.

The author argues that Poland and Ukraine's dependence on Russian gas and oil creates significant security vulnerabilities, which Russia exploits for political pressure. While Poland is investing in infrastructure like the Świnoujście LNG terminal and Baltic Pipe to end gas imports by 2022, Ukraine remains more vulnerable due to limited financial and regulatory capacity. The document posits that long-term resilience against 'hybrid war' requires a shift from centralized energy systems to distributed networks based on renewables and improved energy efficiency, particularly in the housing sector.