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The report identifies three critical environmental challenges for Canada's mining sector: inadequate mine closure and reclamation, the risk of tailings dam failures, and the cumulative impact of infrastructure on biodiversity. It highlights a legacy of abandoned mines and the 'bankruptcy loophole' that allows companies to avoid cleanup costs. The document compares various Voluntary Sustainability Initiatives (VSIs) and regulatory frameworks, noting Quebec's leadership in financial assurance and British Columbia's Cumulative Effects Framework. It argues that mitigating these risks is a precondition for securing the community support and investor confidence necessary to scale up critical mineral production for the clean energy transition.

The report examines the historical and current state of Indigenous engagement in Canada's resource sector, focusing on the transition to clean energy and critical minerals. It argues that while regulatory frameworks like the Impact Assessment Act have improved since the colonial era, they remain too complex, costly, and onerous, often failing to adequately recognize Indigenous sovereignty. Through case studies in Quebec, Nunavut, Saskatchewan, Yukon, and British Columbia, the document illustrates the spectrum of engagement from successful modern treaties and equity partnerships to ongoing conflicts over land title. The authors recommend a shift toward Indigenous-led evaluation and approval processes, the formal acceptance of Indigenous laws, and increased capacity support for communities to ensure the energy transition is equitable and grounded in free, prior, and informed consent.

The report identifies mine closure, tailings management, and biodiversity loss as the three critical environmental challenges facing Canada's critical minerals sector. It argues that failing to address these risks undermines social acceptance and investor confidence, which are essential for the energy transition. The document highlights the 'mixed and controversial' legacy of abandoned mines and tailings disasters, such as Mount Polley, while contrasting varying provincial regulatory effectiveness, noting Quebec as a leader in financial guarantees. It recommends that Canadian governments reduce bureaucratic discretion in enforcement, mandate early and transparent closure planning, restrict high-risk 'upstream' tailings dams, and adopt regional cumulative effect assessments to protect biodiversity and respect Indigenous land-use planning.

Manitoba is well-positioned for the energy transition due to its low-cost clean electricity, critical mineral deposits, and established ag-tech sector. However, the province lags behind other jurisdictions in public and private R&D investment and lacks a comprehensive government strategy to attract innovative companies. Economic risks include a high debt-to-GDP ratio and a workforce in vulnerable sectors, particularly affecting visible minorities and Indigenous peoples. While some companies are electrifying operations, the province's overall adoption of electric vehicles and heat pumps remains below national and provincial averages.

The report examines the historical and current state of Indigenous participation in Canada's resource regulatory frameworks. It argues that while the transition to clean energy requires increased extraction of critical minerals on Indigenous lands, current regulatory processes—including the Impact Assessment Act—are often too complex, costly, and slow, failing to fully recognize Indigenous sovereignty. Through various case studies, the document highlights that successful projects are those based on genuine collaboration, modern treaties, and the recognition of Indigenous laws, rather than mere consultation. It recommends a shift toward Indigenous-led assessment and monitoring processes to ensure economic prosperity and environmental protection.

The report analyzes the challenges of decarbonizing Canada's critical minerals sector, noting that while Canada currently has a low-carbon advantage due to clean electricity grids, this edge may erode as other nations transition. It identifies three primary barriers: a lack of market demand for low-carbon minerals (no 'green premium'), fragmented supply chain infrastructure hindering traceability, and supply-side hurdles including the slow commercialization of electric ultra-class haul trucks and limited access to low-carbon power for off-grid mines. The author recommends a policy toolkit including the integration of emissions intensity into support programs, funding for R&D in technologies like direct lithium extraction, and the maintenance of large-emitter trading systems.

Ontario is well-positioned for the low-carbon transition due to its financial center and manufacturing expertise, but faces significant risks in its automotive and primary metals sectors. While the province leads Canada in the number of transition-opportunity companies, particularly in low-carbon electricity and batteries, progress is hindered by policy inconsistency and a lack of long-term sector-specific strategies. Workforce vulnerability is high in traditional manufacturing hubs, and high public debt may constrain the investment needed for a smooth transition.

Ontario is well-positioned for the carbon-neutral transition due to its financial hub status and concentration of clean energy and bio-product companies. However, it faces significant risks, including a high number of vulnerable workers in the manufacturing sector, high public debt, and policy instability. While major investments are occurring in electric vehicle production and steel electrification, the province lacks long-term sectoral policies and a clear carbon-neutral grid strategy, which may hinder large-scale technology adoption and competitiveness compared to other provinces.

Quebec has successfully decoupled economic growth from greenhouse gas emissions, leveraging cheap hydroelectricity and a mature mining sector to foster transition-opportunity companies in electric vehicles and batteries. However, the province faces significant challenges, including high public debt (45% debt-to-GDP in 2020–21), workforce shortages in technical trades, and the need to rebuild trust with Indigenous Peoples to develop critical mineral projects. While Quebec attracts significant venture capital, its companies often raise less capital per investment stage than those in the US and the rest of Canada, facing stiff international competition from China and the US.

Québec is well-positioned for the energy transition due to its low-cost, low-carbon electricity and a mature mining sector for critical minerals. However, the province faces significant challenges, including a high public debt-to-GDP ratio of 45% (2020-2021), a shortage of skilled labor in clean-tech SMEs, and the need to rebuild trust with Indigenous peoples for new large-scale projects. While the province has a strong ecosystem of transition-supporting companies—particularly in electric transport and industrial transition—it faces intense global competition from the US, EU, and China, and its firms often secure less capital at each funding stage compared to US counterparts.

Saskatchewan faces significant economic risks due to its reliance on oil and gas, with 6% of its workforce in transition-vulnerable sectors. While the province has strengths in agricultural technology, critical minerals, and renewable energy potential, it lags behind other Canadian provinces in attracting transition-consistent investment. Growth is concentrated in Saskatoon and Regina, primarily within ag-tech and alternative proteins. Barriers to scaling include a lack of early-stage policy support, low R&D funding, and continued subsidies for fossil fuels, which create uncertainty for clean-tech investors.

Saskatchewan faces significant economic risks due to its heavy reliance on the oil and gas sector, which generated 16% of its provincial GDP in 2019. While the province possesses strong competitive advantages in wind, solar, and critical minerals, it lags behind other Canadian provinces in attracting transition-related investments. Most current growth is concentrated in agtech and alternative proteins, while public and private funding for broader research and development remains limited. The report highlights a critical need for more ambitious climate policies and better support for workforce transition, particularly in small communities like Coronach, to avoid severe economic decline.

The document argues that the 2026 JTWP dialogues should be structured around international cooperation, technical assistance, capacity-building, and knowledge sharing to inform the design of the Just Transition Mechanism. Drawing on research from the Global South, it highlights critical gaps in financing for social protection, the risks of extractive dynamics in critical mineral supply chains, and the need for technology co-development rather than simple transfer. It specifically identifies needs for better disaggregated data in countries like Uganda and Kenya, and the risk of 'greening elsewhere' in Indonesia due to coal-powered nickel smelting.

The document identifies systemic barriers to transitioning away from fossil fuels, particularly for countries heavily reliant on oil and gas revenues, such as Canada, Nigeria, and Malaysia. It argues that a successful transition requires multilateral coordination between importers and exporters, collaborative governance frameworks, and a commitment to Just Transition principles to avoid exacerbating global inequalities. Key recommendations include strategic economic diversification, the use of multi-model evidence for planning, and the implementation of restorative justice to address historical harms.

Ghana is navigating a contradictory energy landscape where the government pursues both petroleum exploration and a net-zero target by 2070. While the National Energy Transition Framework (2022-2070) outlines a path toward decarbonization, the country's energy mix remains heavily dependent on oil and gas, which provided 64.1% of the energy supply as of April 2024. The transition is complicated by a top-down technocratic approach that has led to public resistance against policies like the ban on salvaged vehicles and carbon levies on petrol and diesel cars. Furthermore, there is a tension between domestic desires to utilize all available fossil resources for economic growth and global donor-driven pressures to accelerate the phase-out of hydrocarbons. The document recommends operationalizing a National Energy Transition Fund, improving procedural justice through public engagement, and harmonizing donor engagement to ensure a more equitable transition.

The document analyzes Nigeria's struggle to balance its economic reliance on oil and gas with climate ambitions. It highlights the risk of 'carbon lock-in' through policies like the Petroleum Industry Act and the fiscal vulnerability of sub-national governments. It proposes shifting from a natural-resource-dependent model to one based on high-value manufacturing and services, leveraging renewable energy and critical minerals like lithium. Key recommendations include developing multi-sectoral transition policies, securing international climate finance, and implementing social protections for displaced workers and the Niger Delta region.

The report argues that climate change will increasingly exacerbate risks to US national security by intensifying physical impacts and mounting geopolitical tensions over the energy transition. It identifies a likely increase in cross-border conflicts over water and migration, strategic competition in the Arctic, and the risk of unilateral solar geoengineering. The document highlights 11 highly vulnerable countries and two regions (Central Africa and Pacific island states) where climate-induced instability may necessitate increased US diplomatic, humanitarian, and military resources. It also notes that current global policies are insufficient to meet Paris Agreement goals, leading to competition over critical minerals and technologies.

Lithium is a critical mineral essential for electric vehicle batteries and grid storage, with demand for these applications expected to reach 97% by 2035. While deposits are globally abundant, viable extraction is concentrated in the 'lithium triangle' (Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile) and Australia. The United States relies on imports for over 50% of its consumption as of 2025, with limited domestic production and processing. Extraction and processing cause significant environmental damage, including water depletion in arid regions and toxic contamination, disproportionately affecting Indigenous communities. Recycling remains limited but could potentially reduce the need for new mines by 25% by 2050.

The document details cobalt's critical importance for lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles and electronics, noting that demand for clean energy technologies is expected to rise by 80% between 2025 and 2030. It highlights a highly concentrated supply chain, with the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) producing about 76% of global cobalt and China refining 50% to 70% of global supplies. The text emphasizes severe externalities in the DRC, including child labor, human rights violations, and the deforestation of 32,100 acres of the Congo Basin forest from 2001 to 2020. It also notes the U.S. has a 76% import reliance for cobalt and discusses recycling and substitutes, such as iron-phosphate and TAQ, to mitigate supply and ethical risks.

The document details the essential role of critical minerals in clean energy technologies, the U.S.'s high import reliance, and the regulatory and economic barriers to domestic production. It highlights the environmental and human rights risks of mining, the potential for secondary recovery and recycling, and recent federal legislative and executive actions aimed at securing supply chains.