ONTARIO: Risks and opportunities in the global low-carbon transition

Ontario is well-positioned for the low-carbon transition due to its financial center and manufacturing expertise, but faces significant risks in its automotive and primary metals sectors. While the province leads Canada in the number of transition-opportunity companies, particularly in low-carbon electricity and batteries, progress is hindered by policy inconsistency and a lack of long-term sector-specific strategies. Workforce vulnerability is high in traditional manufacturing hubs, and high public debt may constrain the investment needed for a smooth transition.

• Ontario possesses a strong foundation for the low-carbon transition, holding the highest number of transition-opportunity companies in Canada, with particular strength in low-carbon electricity (32%), agricultural technology and alternative proteins (16%), and bioenergy and bioproducts (13%).
• The province faces significant workforce risks, with 5% of workers in transition-vulnerable sectors. This vulnerability is most acute in traditional auto manufacturing communities such as Tillsonburg (14%), Ingersoll (13%), and Woodstock (12%).
• Ontario's export economy is highly exposed to the transition, as nearly half of its goods exports come from transition-vulnerable sectors, specifically transport equipment (31%) and primary metals manufacturing (13%).
• Major industrial players in Ontario are investing in decarbonization, including ArcelorMittal Dofasco and Algoma Steel, which aim to reduce annual greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 6 Mt by 2028 through electrification.
• The automotive sector is shifting toward electric vehicles, with automakers including General Motors, Fiat, Ford, and Honda planning collective investments over $5B, supplemented by more than $2B in government financing.
• Policy instability has created market uncertainty and weakened the business case for transformative investments. Key examples include the 2018 cancellation of the Feed-In Tariff (FIT) policy and the cap-and-trade system.
• Ontario's fiscal position and energy choices may hinder its transition; the province had a debt-to-GDP ratio of 44% in 2020–21, and an increasing reliance on unabated natural-gas-fired electricity contradicts national net zero goals.
• The province lacks a net zero emissions strategy for its electricity grid and lags behind other provinces, such as British Columbia and Quebec, in adopting zero-emission-vehicle mandates and stringent building codes.

APA

Canadian Climate Institute (n.d.). ONTARIO: Risks and opportunities in the global low-carbon transition. https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Ontario-profile.pdf

Chicago

Canadian Climate Institute. ONTARIO: Risks and opportunities in the global low-carbon transition. n.d. https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Ontario-profile.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Canadian Climate Institute |title=ONTARIO: Risks and opportunities in the global low-carbon transition |url=https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Ontario-profile.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{canadianclimateinstitutendontario, author = {{Canadian Climate Institute}}, title = {{ONTARIO: Risks and opportunities in the global low-carbon transition}}, institution = {Canadian Climate Institute}, url = {https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Ontario-profile.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }