Search Climate Insights Directory
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Data Center Power Play
The document details the use of a modified Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model to project US electricity demand from data centers and the resulting effects on the energy transition. It outlines five demand scenarios, including 'high data center demand growth', and evaluates them against various policy frameworks such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). The analysis incorporates specific state-level emissions caps for Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and adjusts technology costs for nuclear and carbon capture and storage (CCS) to reflect conservative estimates. It also details the calculation of health damages from criteria pollutants and the social cost of greenhouse gas emissions.
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Document type: Report
Coal Transition Impacts and the Approach to Inclusive Just Transition Policies in Indonesia
The report analyzes the potential economic shocks of phasing out coal in Indonesia, identifying East Kalimantan as the most vulnerable province. Using a mixed-methods approach, it demonstrates that while mine closures cause significant losses in output and employment, targeted stimulus in the food and beverage and green sectors can drive recovery. The study emphasizes the disproportionate impact on informal workers and women, recommending a transition roadmap that integrates gender equality, disability, and social inclusion (GEDSI) principles and expands social safety nets.
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Document type: Report
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DECISIVE DECADE
The report compares a pathway aligned with U.S. climate commitments against the energy and climate provisions of Project 2025. It finds that Continued Climate Leadership would lead to significant emissions reductions, job growth, and public health improvements, while Project 2025 would increase emissions, reduce GDP, and cause additional premature deaths.
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Document type: Research paper
Environmental and economic impacts of EU ETS and CORSIA policy scenarios for European aviation
The report evaluates the impact of expanding the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) to cover more European aviation flights compared to the European Commission's (EC) proposal, which retains the EU ETS for intra-EEA flights and uses CORSIA for flights between the EEA and other participating states. Using the AERO-MS model, the study finds that expanding the EU ETS to include all outgoing flights (Scenario 1) or all outgoing and incoming flights (Scenario 2) would significantly increase emission reductions and auctioning revenues, though at a higher cost to airlines. Specifically, Scenario 2 would result in a 113% higher emission reduction than the EC proposal. The report also highlights uncertainties in CORSIA's effectiveness, noting that changes in the baseline or non-participation of major aviation countries could reduce its emission reductions by up to 77%.
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Document type: Report
Oregon Clean Trucks Program
The report evaluates three policy scenarios for Oregon's medium- and heavy-duty (M/HD) truck fleet: the adoption of California's Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) rule, the addition of the NOx Omnibus Rule, and a more aggressive '100 x 40 ZEV + Clean Grid' scenario. The most ambitious scenario projects cumulative net societal benefits of $35.6 billion by 2050, including 186 avoided premature deaths and $1.9 billion in annual fleet cost savings. While ZEVs currently have higher purchase costs, the analysis suggests they will reach lifetime cost parity with combustion vehicles by 2030. The transition is expected to have positive macroeconomic effects on national jobs and GDP, and could reduce residential electricity rates in Oregon by up to 3.7% by 2050 due to increased utility net revenue.
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Document type: Report
Washington Clean Trucks Program An Analysis of the Impacts of Zero-Emission Medium- and Heavy-Duty Trucks on the Environment, Public Health, Industry, and the Economy
The report analyzes the transition of Washington's medium- and heavy-duty (M/HD) vehicle fleet to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) under three scenarios: the ACT Rule, the ACT + NOx Omnibus Rule, and a highly ambitious '100 x 40 ZEV + Clean Grid' scenario. The most aggressive scenario is projected to generate cumulative net societal benefits of over $42.8 billion by 2050, including significant reductions in premature deaths and greenhouse gas emissions. While ZEVs currently have higher purchase costs, the analysis predicts lifetime cost parity with combustion vehicles by 2030. The transition is expected to benefit electric utilities through increased revenue and potentially lower electricity rates for residential and commercial customers, while creating national job gains in electrical component manufacturing and infrastructure construction.
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Document type: Report
Accelerating toward a Clean Energy Economy
The document outlines the use of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) to model the impact of the Clean Power Plan and federal tax credits. It specifies adjustments made to standard EIA cost and performance assumptions for various energy technologies, including wind, solar, coal, and nuclear, and defines three primary analysis scenarios: a Reference Case, a Clean Energy Transition Case, and a Clean Power Plan Only Case.
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Document type: Report
CORN ETHANOL GHG EMISSIONS UNDER VARIOUS RFS IMPLEMENTATION SCENARIOS
The Clean Air Task Force (CATF) argues that US corn ethanol's lifecycle GHG emissions are significantly higher than EPA estimates. By shifting the analysis period to 2010-2044, CATF finds that corn ethanol emissions are approximately 28% higher than gasoline. The paper further examines scenarios where the shortfall in cellulosic biofuel production is filled by other fuels, finding that allowing sugarcane ethanol imports or additional corn ethanol would substantially increase total CO2 emissions.
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Document type: Research paper
Green Investment Horizons
The document analyzes the potential market value of three key energy efficiency technologies for commercial and residential buildings: insulation, lighting, and building controls. It projects growth from 2010 to 2030 across the European Union, the United States, and global markets, comparing an 'incremental' scenario based on current policies and an 'aggressive' scenario based on more ambitious legislation. The findings generally indicate robust short-term growth (2010-2020) across all technologies, with varying long-term trajectories depending on the level of government intervention and regulatory stringency.
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Document type: Research paper