THE SECOND HALF OF THE DECISIVE DECADE

This research paper by Energy Innovation evaluates the potential impacts of two divergent U.S. policy pathways on greenhouse gas emissions, the economy, and public health through 2050. It compares a 'Continued Climate Leadership' scenario, aimed at meeting the U.S. Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), against a 'Project 2025' scenario, which involves repealing major climate laws and expanding fossil fuel production. The analysis finds that the Continued Climate Leadership pathway would significantly reduce emissions, create millions of jobs, and lower household energy costs, while the Project 2025 pathway would increase emissions, lead to substantial job losses, and raise energy costs for households.

• Current federal actions, including the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL), and CHIPS and Science Act (CHIPS), have shifted the U.S. emissions trajectory. Before these policies, the U.S. was projected to emit 4,880 million metric tons (MMT) of greenhouse gases (GHG) in 2030 (26% below 2005 levels); under current policy, this is expected to drop to 4,140 MMT (37% below 2005 levels).
• The 'Continued Climate Leadership' scenario, which targets the U.S. NDC of 50-52% reduction below 2005 levels by 2030 and net zero by 2050, would result in 3,160 MMT of emissions in 2030. This pathway is projected to add 2.2 million jobs in 2030 and 2.1 million in 2050, while increasing GDP by $450 billion per year by 2030 and $730 billion per year by 2050.
• The 'Project 2025' scenario, which involves repealing most IRA and BIL provisions and expanding oil and gas leasing, would increase emissions to 4,920 MMT in 2030 and 4,710 MMT in 2050. This scenario is projected to cause a loss of 1.7 million jobs in 2030 and 260,000 jobs in 2050, and decrease GDP by $320 billion per year in 2030 and $150 billion per year in 2050.
• The two policy pathways create a stark contrast in household energy costs. The Continued Climate Leadership scenario would save households $7.7 billion in 2030 and $110 billion in 2050. Conversely, the Project 2025 scenario would increase costs by $32 billion in 2030 and $24 billion in 2050 due to higher electricity prices and increased petroleum reliance.
• Public health outcomes differ significantly between the scenarios. Continued Climate Leadership would prevent 3,900 early deaths from air pollution by 2030 and 20,600 by 2050. In contrast, the Project 2025 scenario would cause an additional 2,100 premature deaths by 2030 and 4,800 by 2050.
• The Project 2025 scenario's expansion of oil and gas leasing would significantly increase emissions. Returning to Trump-era leasing levels (Scenario 2) would result in a 73% increase in business-as-usual oil production and a 13% increase in gas production by 2050, contributing to a cumulative increase of 1,480 Mt CO2e through 2050 when fuel-price changes are included.

APA

Mahajan, M., Orvis, R., Gopal, A., Brien, D. O., & Goldstein, R. (2024). THE SECOND HALF OF THE DECISIVE DECADE. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/The-Second-Half-of-The-Decisive-Decade-Potential-U.S.-Pathways-on-Climate-Jobs-and-Health.pdf

Chicago

Mahajan, Megan, Robbie Orvis, Anand Gopal, Dan O’ Brien, and Rachel Goldstein. THE SECOND HALF OF THE DECISIVE DECADE. Energy Innovation, 2024. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/The-Second-Half-of-The-Decisive-Decade-Potential-U.S.-Pathways-on-Climate-Jobs-and-Health.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Mahajan |first1=Megan |last2=Orvis |first2=Robbie |last3=Gopal |first3=Anand |last4=Brien |first4=Dan O’ |last5=Goldstein |first5=Rachel |title=THE SECOND HALF OF THE DECISIVE DECADE |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=14 August 2024 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/The-Second-Half-of-The-Decisive-Decade-Potential-U.S.-Pathways-on-Climate-Jobs-and-Health.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mahajan2024second, author = {Mahajan, Megan and Orvis, Robbie and Gopal, Anand and Brien, Dan O’ and Goldstein, Rachel}, title = {{THE SECOND HALF OF THE DECISIVE DECADE}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2024}, month = aug, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/The-Second-Half-of-The-Decisive-Decade-Potential-U.S.-Pathways-on-Climate-Jobs-and-Health.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }