THE SECOND HALF OF THE DECISIVE DECADE

The report compares a pathway aligned with U.S. climate commitments against the energy and climate provisions of Project 2025. It finds that Continued Climate Leadership would lead to significant emissions reductions, job growth, and public health improvements, while Project 2025 would increase emissions, reduce GDP, and cause additional premature deaths.

• Current U.S. policies, including the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL), and CHIPS and Science Act, have lowered the 2030 emissions trajectory from 4,880 million metric tons (MMT) to 4,140 MMT, which is 37 percent below 2005 levels.
• The 'Continued Climate Leadership' scenario would reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions to 3,160 MMT by 2030 (52 percent below 2005 levels) and achieve net zero by 2050, while adding 2.2 million jobs in 2030 and 2.1 million in 2050.
• The 'Project 2025' scenario would increase emissions to 4,920 MMT in 2030 and 4,710 MMT in 2050, resulting in a loss of 1.7 million jobs in 2030 and 260,000 jobs in 2050.
• Project 2025 would increase household energy costs by $32 billion across all households in 2030 and $24 billion in 2050, whereas Continued Climate Leadership would save households $7.7 billion in 2030 and $110 billion in 2050.
• Economic impacts differ sharply: Continued Climate Leadership is projected to grow GDP by $450 billion per year by 2030 and $730 billion by 2050, while Project 2025 would decrease GDP by $320 billion per year in 2030 and $150 billion in 2050.
• Public health outcomes vary significantly, with Continued Climate Leadership preventing 3,900 early deaths by 2030 and 20,600 by 2050, while Project 2025 would cause an additional 2,100 premature deaths by 2030 and 4,800 by 2050.
• The Project 2025 scenario's approach to oil and gas leasing would result in a cumulative increase of 880 Mt CO2e through 2050 from production, and a further cumulative increase of 1,480 Mt CO2e due to fuel-price changes.

APA

Mahajan, M., Orvis, R., Gopal, A., Brien, D. O., & Goldstein, R. (2024). THE SECOND HALF OF THE DECISIVE DECADE. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/The-Second-Half-of-The-Decisive-Decade-Potential-U.S.-Pathways-on-Climate-Jobs-and-Health.pdf

Chicago

Mahajan, Megan, Robbie Orvis, Anand Gopal, Dan O’ Brien, and Rachel Goldstein. THE SECOND HALF OF THE DECISIVE DECADE. Energy Innovation, 2024. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/The-Second-Half-of-The-Decisive-Decade-Potential-U.S.-Pathways-on-Climate-Jobs-and-Health.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Mahajan |first1=Megan |last2=Orvis |first2=Robbie |last3=Gopal |first3=Anand |last4=Brien |first4=Dan O’ |last5=Goldstein |first5=Rachel |title=THE SECOND HALF OF THE DECISIVE DECADE |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=14 August 2024 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/The-Second-Half-of-The-Decisive-Decade-Potential-U.S.-Pathways-on-Climate-Jobs-and-Health.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mahajan2024second, author = {Mahajan, Megan and Orvis, Robbie and Gopal, Anand and Brien, Dan O’ and Goldstein, Rachel}, title = {{THE SECOND HALF OF THE DECISIVE DECADE}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2024}, month = aug, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/The-Second-Half-of-The-Decisive-Decade-Potential-U.S.-Pathways-on-Climate-Jobs-and-Health.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }