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The document introduces a collective volume analyzing the shifting security and geopolitical landscape of the Eastern Mediterranean. It identifies four primary drivers of change: hydrocarbon discoveries, geopolitical antagonisms (particularly involving Turkey), new human security imperatives resulting from Middle Eastern instability, and increased interest from external powers like the US, Russia, and China. The text focuses on the formation of trilateral partnerships (Cyprus-Greece-Israel and Cyprus-Egypt-Greece) as a balancing act against Turkey's regional power projection and explores how these alliances intersect with energy security and the broader refugee crisis affecting Southern Europe.

The document examines the discovery of natural gas in the Eastern Mediterranean and the subsequent formation of political alliances between Greece, Cyprus, Israel, and Egypt. It evaluates three primary monetisation strategies: the East Med pipeline to Europe, a pipeline to Turkey, and a triangular strategy using Egypt as a gas hub. The author argues that while these projects are politically desirable for regional security and EU diversification, they face severe technical, financial, and geopolitical obstacles—including high construction costs, seismic risks, and volatile global gas prices—that may render them commercially unviable.

The paper analyzes the dual perception of the Mediterranean as both a 'threatening' and 'bridging' sea. It details the transition of Turkey from the Ottoman Empire to a secular republic based on a constructed Hittite identity, and compares this to Israel's own nation-building. The author argues that Israel, Greece, and Cyprus share common interests as small non-Muslim states facing external coercion and the decline of Middle Eastern Christianity, leading to increased military and intelligence cooperation.

The document argues that a combination of systemic shifts—including a regional power vacuum, the discovery of hydrocarbons, and a more hostile Turkish foreign policy—and the pro-Western orientation of the Nikos Anastasiades government enabled Cyprus to move from a reactive to a proactive foreign policy. This shift is manifested in 'trilateral partnerships' with Greece, Israel, and Egypt, which serve as a balancing strategy against Turkey. While these efforts have enhanced Cyprus's regional role and security, the author suggests they may have led the government to overlook the domestic and intercommunal complexities of the Cyprus Problem.

The document analyzes Greece's strategic shift in the Eastern Mediterranean, emphasizing the role of personal beliefs of policymakers like Nikos Kotzias in shaping a 'diverse active policy'. It details Greece's efforts to establish trilateral partnerships with Israel, Egypt, and Cyprus to counter Turkish influence and leverage hydrocarbon discoveries. Central to this strategy is the ambition to become a regional energy hub through projects like the EastMed pipeline and electrical interconnectors, while positioning Greece as an 'exporter of stability' within a 'triangle of instability' comprising Ukraine, Libya, and Syria.

The document examines the geopolitical motivations driving the partnership between Egypt, Greece, and Cyprus, particularly following the election of Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi in 2014. It analyzes the role of massive natural gas discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean and the shared desire to counter Turkish influence. The author distinguishes between a rigid military alliance and a flexible 'entente,' concluding that the trilateral relationship is the latter, as it lacks binding commitments for military intervention during conflict.

The document analyzes Turkey's ambition to become a regional energy hub and how this goal conflicts with its assertive geostrategic vision and the emerging energy partnerships of other Eastern Mediterranean states. It details Turkey's use of 'gunboat diplomacy' and naval presence to protect the sovereign rights of Turkey and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) against the Republic of Cyprus (RoC) and its allies. The authors argue that the current security architecture, characterized by trilateral partnerships and maritime boundary disputes, creates a challenge for Turkish policymakers attempting to reconcile energy ambitions with national security and sovereignty claims.

The report examines the shift in Eastern Mediterranean geopolitics driven by hydrocarbon discoveries and the formation of trilateral partnerships (Greece-Cyprus-Israel and Greece-Cyprus-Egypt). It analyzes these alliances as a balancing act against Turkey's regional power projection and assertive foreign policy. While energy is a primary driver, the report notes that technical, economic, and political obstacles—such as the viability of the EastMed pipeline and maritime boundary disputes—hinder full monetization of gas reserves. The text also explores the domestic drivers of foreign policy in Cyprus and Greece, the historical perceptions of the region from an Israeli perspective, and Turkey's strategic ambition to become a regional energy hub.

The document examines the 'EU migration crisis' and the resulting 'containment compact,' where the EU provides aid and arms to African states to restrict migration. It argues that this approach ignores primary drivers: Africa's youth bulge and income inequality. While the EU faces labour shortages and Africa has a surplus, the current policy focuses on border fortification rather than pragmatic labour mobility agreements. The author contends that without a 'migration safety valve,' both regions face potential political and economic backlash.

The document analyzes the engagement of China, Japan, and India in East Africa, particularly Kenya and Tanzania, highlighting the strategic importance of maritime ports and transport corridors. It details significant infrastructure projects, such as the LAPSSET Corridor and the Mombasa port upgrades, while noting a persistent trade imbalance where East African nations export raw materials and import high-value finished goods. The author argues that while these investments offer growth opportunities, they require improved governance to ensure sustainable and inclusive development.

The report analyzes how Turkey's domestic transformation and regional foreign policy influence the security perceptions of Greek-Cypriots. It distinguishes between official perceptions, which prioritize military and state security, and non-official perceptions, which place greater emphasis on political and economic stability. The author argues that while Turkey is viewed as a primary existential threat, addressing broader human security concerns could provide a path for inter-communal collaboration in Cyprus.

The document analyzes the difficulties in establishing the Global Compact for Migration (GCM) compared to the Global Compact on Refugees, citing domestic political pressures, populism, and a lack of UN leadership. It highlights the unequal nature of migration negotiations between the African Union and the European Union, where the EU prioritizes border control while African nations focus on development. The author critiques the GCM's zero draft as a non-binding 'wish list' that lacks accountability mechanisms, though it notes the potential of its proposed capacity-building mechanism to support African regional migration goals.

The document posits that climate change adaptation involves systemic changes that influence geopolitics. While adaptation is typically framed as ecosystem preservation or conflict reduction—with developing countries viewed as the most vulnerable—this text specifically examines how shifts in water supply, demand, management, and cooperation in India impact geopolitical relations.

The document examines the Eastern Mediterranean's transition from a strategic space used by great powers to a distinct geopolitical region. It analyzes the shift toward multipolarity and the emergence of 'proto-regionalism' through trilateral partnerships involving Greece, Cyprus, Israel, and Egypt. While identifying potential for an Eastern Mediterranean Cooperation Council (EMCC) based on the Gulf Cooperation Council model, the author highlights significant obstacles, including the role of Turkey, the Cyprus conflict, and energy disputes.

The paper investigates the dynamics between South Africa, as a regional hegemon, and several 'secondary powers' in sub-Saharan Africa. It concludes that while these states possess significant material power, their ability to contest South African leadership is limited by poor governance and a lack of overlapping strategic interests. Most contestation is found to be unintended, with the exception of Angola, which employs a strategy of soft balancing through economic protectionism and strategic investments.

The document examines the multifaceted nature of security in Europe, contrasting the 'politics of fear' used by national populists with a progressive vision of security. It analyzes threats ranging from terrorism and digital vulnerabilities to energy insecurity and climate change, while emphasizing that social investment and the protection of civil liberties are more effective tools for stability than mass surveillance or militarisation. The text specifically critiques the 'securitisation' of migration and the role of the state in managing perceived risks.

The document analyzes France's strategic use of its territories, military presence, and diplomatic ties to maintain influence in the Indian Ocean Region. It highlights the tension between established powers like France and emerging economies such as China, India, and South Africa, particularly regarding the 'Blue Economy' and maritime security.

The document examines China's use of large-scale infrastructure projects in Africa as a tool of economic statecraft to challenge Western-led global norms and promote a 'democratised' global order. It analyzes the role of the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) and compares African initiatives with similar Chinese regional forums in the Arab world, Central Asia, and Latin America. Despite a slowing domestic economy and falling commodity prices affecting resource-rich African states, the author contends that China's strategic geopolitical goals ensure the continued resilience of its African investments.

The document analyzes the transition of the Japan-Africa partnership through the lens of the Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD). It highlights a strategic shift from post-Cold War aid policies toward a stronger focus on trade, investment, and economic strategy, exemplified by the establishment of the Conference on African Economic Strategy under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The text compares Japan's economic footprint in Africa—noting a US$20 billion trade volume in 2015—against China's significantly larger US$180 billion. It further examines Japan's geopolitical motivations, including UN Security Council reform and maritime disputes in the East China Sea, while noting that African nations are leveraging competition between global powers to secure better investment and infrastructure terms.

The document examines the Antarctic Treaty (1959) and its ancillary agreements, such as the Madrid Protocol, which prohibit mineral exploitation until at least 2048. It analyzes how emerging powers like China, India, and Brazil are increasing their scientific presence to gain political influence. The paper details South Africa's historical role as a founding member and its current focus on science, while arguing that South Africa should integrate its Antarctic activities more deeply into its broader foreign policy and the 'Africa Agenda' to promote a more inclusive global governance regime.