Search Climate Insights Directory

The report finds that Indonesia's current tax system does not incentivize sustainable land use in the palm oil industry, characterized by low tax-to-GDP ratios and minimal revenue redistribution to local governments. It proposes six fiscal reforms, including increasing land taxes and tying revenue sharing to sustainability indicators, to reduce deforestation and improve land productivity.

The Union of Concerned Scientists analyzes how a hypothetical Pennsylvania green bank, with an initial $135 million capitalization, could leverage $4.2 billion in total investment by 2030. This initiative would support 780 MW of wind and solar capacity, save $375 million annually on electricity bills, and reduce CO2 emissions by 4.8 million tons per year, contributing 11% of the state's required reductions under the Clean Power Plan.

The Union of Concerned Scientists analyzes how a hypothetical Virginia green bank with $90 million in initial capitalization could leverage $2.8 billion in total investment by 2030, significantly reducing carbon emissions and supporting the deployment of 575 MW of wind and solar capacity.

Energy Innovation presents a set of 15 targeted policies across economy-wide, industrial, transportation, power, building, and land-use sectors. These policies, modeled via the Energy Policy Simulator, aim to reduce emissions and save the U.S. approximately $840 billion between 2016 and 2030 while positioning the country as a leader in clean energy technology.

The document analyzes six models to determine how Mexico can meet its GHG emission reduction targets of 30% by 2020 (vs business-as-usual) and 50% by 2050 (vs 2000). While current energy and emission trends contradict these goals, the models suggest that targets are achievable through electricity decarbonization and transport sector improvements, though costs could reach 15% of GDP by 2050.

The United States can meet its target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 26–28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025 through a combination of existing federal laws and state actions. The report proposes a 10-point action plan focusing on the power sector, energy efficiency, HFCs, and methane reduction. For deeper reductions beyond 2025, the authors argue that new legislation, such as a carbon price, could reduce emissions by 40–42 percent by 2030 and 50–53 percent by 2040 without sacrificing robust economic growth.

The analysis finds that grid-connected solar-plus-battery systems will become the lowest-cost option for many customers within 10-15 years, potentially causing massive revenue losses for utilities. In the Northeast U.S. alone, potential residential and commercial kWh sales erosion by 2030 could reach 58 million MWh and 83 million MWh respectively. The report argues that eliminating net metering or adding fixed charges only delays this outcome. To avoid a future of stranded assets and high costs for non-adopters, the authors advocate for an 'integrated grid' featuring locational and temporal pricing, performance-based regulation, and the monetization of distributed energy resource (DER) values.

The analysis finds that grid-connected solar-plus-battery systems will rapidly become cost-effective, potentially leading to significant load defection that could undermine utility revenues and create stranded assets. The report argues that the electricity system is at a 'fork in the road,' where current regulatory and pricing models will either lead to fragmented grid defection or an integrated grid where distributed energy resources (DERs) provide value back to the system.

The document argues that the EU's 2030 target of reducing non-ETS emissions by 30% relative to 2005 levels will create a significant gap between the demand for and supply of Annual Emissions Allocations (AEAs). It suggests that the existing 2020 flexibility mechanism is insufficient and proposes the creation of an AEA Clearinghouse to facilitate project-based trading, increase market transparency, and catalyze low-carbon investment in lower-income Member States.

The report examines the transition of the U.S. power sector from coal to natural gas, noting that while this shift provides immediate benefits, it introduces risks such as price volatility, methane leakage, and potential 'stranded assets'. Using the National Energy Modeling System, the analysis compares a 'Business as Usual' scenario with a 'Carbon Standard plus Renewables and Efficiency Policies' scenario. The findings suggest that the latter would reduce power plant carbon emissions by 70 percent below 2005 levels by 2040, lower consumer energy bills, and provide significant net societal benefits, reaching nearly $170 billion by 2040.

The report examines the transition of the U.S. power sector from coal to natural gas, highlighting that while this shift provides immediate reductions in some pollutants, it creates long-term risks including price volatility, methane leakage, and stranded assets. Through modeling three scenarios—Business as Usual, a Carbon Standard, and a Carbon Standard plus Renewables and Efficiency Policies—the authors find that a diversified energy mix is the most economically and environmentally sound approach. The 'Carbon Standard plus Renewables and Efficiency Policies' scenario is projected to reduce power plant carbon emissions by 70% below 2005 levels by 2040 and generate net societal benefits of nearly $170 billion by that year. The report recommends strengthening the EPA's Clean Power Plan, implementing federal renewable electricity and energy efficiency standards, and increasing regulations on fugitive methane emissions.

The document details the methodology for 'The Natural Gas Gamble' report, utilizing a modified National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) to compare three primary policy scenarios: Business as Usual, a Carbon Standard, and a Carbon Standard combined with renewable energy and energy efficiency policies. It outlines specific adjustments made to U.S. Department of Energy assumptions regarding capital costs and capacity factors for various energy technologies, including wind, solar, nuclear, and carbon capture and storage. Additionally, it describes sensitivity analyses based on high and low natural gas price projections and explains the calculations used to determine the social costs of carbon and the health benefits of reducing sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides.

The research evaluates the gap between the potential economic benefit of price risk hedging and the actual value delivered by Brazil's Minimum Price Guarantee Policy (PGPM). Using a neoclassical growth model for soybean, sugarcane, corn, and coffee, the authors find that farmers would value full price insurance at BRL 49.6 billion (25.9% of total production value), while the current policy provides only BRL 3.982 billion in value, representing just 8.0% of the potential market. The study argues that the PGPM is an inefficient, anachronistic tool that focuses on preventing extreme poverty rather than managing the price volatility that affects both small and large-scale commercial agribusiness. It recommends shifting toward market-oriented instruments, such as direct payments or revenue insurance, similar to transitions made in the United States and European Union.

The Union of Concerned Scientists argues that increasing Minnesota's renewable energy standard to 40 percent by 2030 would drive over $6 billion in new capital investments and reduce reliance on imported electricity without significantly impacting retail rates. The analysis indicates that such a policy would increase wind capacity to nearly 6,000 MW and utility-scale solar to over 600 MW by 2030. While a strengthened RES helps position the state to comply with the EPA's Clean Power Plan, the report notes that coal would still provide 38 percent of electricity in 2030 without additional policy actions. The authors recommend combining the strengthened RES with an increased energy efficiency standard of 2 percent annually by 2020.

The report estimates that a transition to a low-carbon economy could put nearly $25 trillion of fossil fuel asset value at risk, with approximately 80% of this risk borne by governments rather than private investors. The analysis highlights that oil represents the majority of value at risk (close to 75%), while coal offers the highest emissions reduction potential with relatively low stranding risk (12%). The document argues that the net economic impact depends heavily on policy: a purely tax-based approach to reducing oil demand could cost the global economy $3 trillion, whereas an innovation-led transition could yield a net benefit of $7 trillion. It recommends prioritizing the phase-out of coal and utilizing financial mechanisms to lower the cost of renewable energy in emerging markets.

The report analyzes the relationship between global wood product demand and tropical forest health, projecting consumption trends to 2060. It contrasts a 'business as usual' scenario of forest degradation with a sustainable future based on best-management practices in plantations. The authors advocate for a shift away from logging natural forests toward the use of fast-wood and multispecies plantations, supported by improved timber-tracking technologies and consumer pressure for certified sustainable products.

The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) proposes a 'Demonstrated Growth Approach' to replace the EPA's conservative renewable energy targets in the Clean Power Plan. The UCS argues that the EPA underestimates the cost-effectiveness and deployment rates of wind and solar power. By adopting the UCS methodology, the EPA could increase the 2030 share of renewable energy in U.S. electric sales from 12 percent to 23 percent, potentially increasing total power sector emissions reductions from 30 percent to approximately 40 percent below 2005 levels. The brief asserts that these higher targets are affordable, with minimal impact on consumer electricity prices and a potential 9 percent reduction in the national average price of natural gas for the electricity sector by 2030.

The authors defend their use of a simple, transparent global oil model to estimate that the Keystone XL pipeline could increase global emissions by 0 to 110 million tonnes CO2e annually. They argue that the U.S. State Department's Environmental Impact Statement ignores the dynamic relationships between oil production, prices, and demand. While acknowledging uncertainties in supply elasticity and market behavior, they maintain that their approach allows for a range of possible supply responses and encourages open debate over 'black box' models.

The report analyzes government subsidies for the Yamal LNG and Prirazlomnoe projects in the Russian Arctic. It finds that Yamal LNG would be uneconomic without state-funded infrastructure and tax breaks, while Prirazlomnoe received substantial tax breaks after most capital expenditures were already sunk, effectively acting as a rent transfer to Gazprom. Both projects are associated with significant environmental risks, including salinity changes in the Bay of Ob and potential oil spills in the Pechora Sea.

The report analyzes fossil-fuel subsidies in the GCC, noting that low energy pricing serves a political social contract but leads to domestic over-consumption and fiscal pressure. Using IEA, IMF, and GSI data, it estimates total subsidies in 2011 at over US$105 billion, with Saudi Arabia as a primary driver. The document argues that underpricing fossil fuels creates a significant barrier to renewable energy by making conventional thermal power appear cheaper and distorting the market for investors.