The Natural Gas Gamble

The report examines the transition of the U.S. power sector from coal to natural gas, highlighting that while this shift provides immediate reductions in some pollutants, it creates long-term risks including price volatility, methane leakage, and stranded assets. Through modeling three scenarios—Business as Usual, a Carbon Standard, and a Carbon Standard plus Renewables and Efficiency Policies—the authors find that a diversified energy mix is the most economically and environmentally sound approach. The 'Carbon Standard plus Renewables and Efficiency Policies' scenario is projected to reduce power plant carbon emissions by 70% below 2005 levels by 2040 and generate net societal benefits of nearly $170 billion by that year. The report recommends strengthening the EPA's Clean Power Plan, implementing federal renewable electricity and energy efficiency standards, and increasing regulations on fugitive methane emissions.

• A 'Business as Usual' trajectory for the U.S. electricity sector is projected to result in increased natural gas use, rising carbon emissions, and higher energy prices. Specifically, total natural gas use is expected to increase by nearly 18% between 2013 and 2040, with the power sector accounting for 49% of that increase. By 2040, power sector natural gas prices are projected to be 2.3 times higher than in 2013, and average consumer natural gas prices are expected to nearly double.
• The 'Carbon Standard plus Renewables and Efficiency Policies' scenario can significantly reduce carbon emissions and lower long-term costs. This pathway is projected to reduce power plant carbon emissions to 70% below 2005 levels by 2040. By 2040, the net societal benefits—calculated as monetized damages avoided from reducing CO2, SO2, and NOx emissions minus compliance costs—are projected to reach nearly $170 billion.
• Prioritizing renewable energy and energy efficiency reduces the economic risk associated with fossil fuel price volatility. A portfolio based on these resources is 14% less sensitive to long-term fluctuations in fossil fuel prices compared to a gas- and coal-heavy mix. Under baseline and high gas price forecasts, this scenario results in the lowest consumer electricity bills by 2040.
• Overreliance on natural gas poses significant climate risks due to fugitive methane emissions. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, 34 times stronger than carbon dioxide at trapping heat over a 100-year period. The natural gas industry is the largest industrial source of these emissions, and leakage during extraction, processing, and distribution diminishes the climate advantages of natural gas over coal.
• The rapid expansion of natural gas infrastructure creates the risk of 'stranded assets.' Because pipelines and processing facilities have long physical and financial lifespans (often 40 to 100 years), they may be abandoned before the end of their useful life as political and public pressure to reduce carbon emissions increases.
• Hydraulic fracturing (fracking) presents substantial risks to public health and the environment. These include the potential contamination of drinking water aquifers with toxic chemicals like benzene, lead, and methanol, as well as air pollution from the emission of ozone, silica, and hazardous air pollutants that increase the risk of respiratory and cardiovascular disorders for nearby residents.
• The EPA's proposed Clean Power Plan is viewed as an important step but is criticized for underestimating the potential role of renewables. The report suggests that by adopting a 'Demonstrated Growth Approach,' the EPA could increase the share of renewables in national electricity sales to 23% by 2030, potentially reducing emissions to 58% below 2005 levels by that date.

APA

Deyette, J., Clemmer, S., Cleetus, R., Sattler, S., Bailie, A., & Rising, M. (2015). The Natural Gas Gamble. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/03/natural-gas-gamble-full-report.pdf

Chicago

Deyette, Jeff, Steven Clemmer, Rachel Cleetus, Sandra Sattler, Alison Bailie, and Megan Rising. The Natural Gas Gamble. Union of Concerned Scientists, 2015. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/03/natural-gas-gamble-full-report.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Deyette |first1=Jeff |last2=Clemmer |first2=Steven |last3=Cleetus |first3=Rachel |last4=Sattler |first4=Sandra |last5=Bailie |first5=Alison |last6=Rising |first6=Megan |title=The Natural Gas Gamble |publisher=Union of Concerned Scientists |date=March 2015 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/03/natural-gas-gamble-full-report.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{deyette2015natural, author = {Deyette, Jeff and Clemmer, Steven and Cleetus, Rachel and Sattler, Sandra and Bailie, Alison and Rising, Megan}, title = {{The Natural Gas Gamble}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2015}, month = mar, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/03/natural-gas-gamble-full-report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }