Managing Climate Extremes and Disasters in Africa: Lessons from the SREX report

This 2012 report synthesizes the IPCC SREX findings for Africa, highlighting that disaster risk is increasing due to higher exposure of vulnerable populations. It details observed and projected increases in temperature and dryness across various sub-regions, warns that current extremes will become the 'new normal' by 2100, and emphasizes the high vulnerability of the agricultural sector and coastal cities. The document advocates for a shift from reactive to proactive, transformational disaster risk management that integrates local knowledge, high-level political leadership, and international financial support.

• Disaster risk in many African countries is expected to increase even without considering climate change, primarily because more vulnerable people and assets are being exposed to weather extremes.
• Climate change has already influenced the frequency and magnitude of some extreme weather events globally since 1950. In Africa, the impact of climate change on extremes is expected to be relatively small over the next two to three decades compared to normal year-to-year variations, but will become increasingly significant as impacts become more dramatic.
• Observed temperature and precipitation trends since the 1950s vary by African sub-region. West Africa has seen a significant increase in the temperature of the warmest and coolest days and an increase in warm nights. Southern Africa has experienced an increase in warm days, warm nights, and warm spell duration, alongside a general increase in dryness. East Africa shows spatially varying trends in dryness and a lack of evidence for some temperature trends due to limited literature.
• Projections for 2071-2100 indicate a likely increase in warm days, warm nights, and the frequency or length of heat waves across West, East, and Southern Africa, as well as the Sahara. Precipitation projections vary: East Africa is likely to see an increase in heavy precipitation and decreasing dryness, while Southern Africa is projected to see an increase in dryness and a consistent increase in the area of drought.
• The hottest day experienced in the last 20 years of the 20th century is projected to occur at least biannually across Africa by 2046-65, and every year everywhere by 2100 under A1B and A2 scenarios, meaning current extremes will become the norm.
• Agriculture is the most vulnerable and exposed economic sector in Africa, contributing roughly 21% of total GDP and 50% of total export value. Climate extremes significantly impact rain-fed agriculture and pastoralism; for instance, a projected 14% reduction in rainfall in Cameroon could result in losses of approximately US$4.65 billion.
• African coastal cities face high risk due to rapid growth, poverty, and exposure to flooding and storm surges. In Alexandria, coastal flooding alone could damage or lose assets worth US$563.28 billion by 2070.
• Effective disaster risk management (DRM) requires a shift from reactive to proactive, prevention-focused approaches. Success factors include integrating DRM into development planning, quantifying risk in national budgets, and establishing high-level political leadership. For example, Kenya's National Platform for climate change is situated under the Office of the President, and the government intended to allocate 2% of the annual public budget to a National Disaster Management Fund.
• International funding for adaptation in Africa is estimated between US$3-10 billion per year by 2030, though this may be an underestimate. International actors can support resilience through technical assistance, financing risk transfer (such as micro-insurance in Malawi or index-based insurance for the Productive Safety Net Programme in Ethiopia), and coordinating initiatives.
• To avoid the worst disaster losses, Africa requires a transition from incremental changes to transformational changes in institutions and processes. This includes building partnerships between local leaders and governments, combining local and scientific knowledge for risk mapping, and addressing the root causes of social vulnerability rather than relying solely on technological solutions.

APA

Cameron, C., Norrington-Davies, G., & Velde, V. T. (2012). Managing Climate Extremes and Disasters in Africa: Lessons from the SREX report. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/SREX-Lessons-for-Africa-revised-final-copy-1.pdf

Chicago

Cameron, Catherine, Gemma Norrington-Davies, and Victoria te Velde. Managing Climate Extremes and Disasters in Africa: Lessons from the SREX report. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2012. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/SREX-Lessons-for-Africa-revised-final-copy-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cameron |first1=Catherine |last2=Norrington-Davies |first2=Gemma |last3=Velde |first3=Victoria te |title=Managing Climate Extremes and Disasters in Africa: Lessons from the SREX report |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=2012 |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/SREX-Lessons-for-Africa-revised-final-copy-1.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cameron2012managing, author = {Cameron, Catherine and Norrington-Davies, Gemma and Velde, Victoria te}, title = {{Managing Climate Extremes and Disasters in Africa: Lessons from the SREX report}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2012}, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/SREX-Lessons-for-Africa-revised-final-copy-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }