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The report examines the push for natural gas as a 'transition fuel' in South Africa, contrasting government plans with the environmental and financial risks of stranded assets. It details the activities and financing of Kinetiko Energy's Mpumalanga Gas Project and Renergen's Virginia gas field, highlighting significant concerns regarding groundwater contamination, methane leakage, and a lack of transparency in governance.

The report identifies an investible renewable energy market in South Africa of R161.2 billion across 12.9 GW of capacity by 2030. It highlights two primary investment areas: large-scale solar PV, wind, and battery energy storage systems (BESS) targeting the private wheeling market, and behind-the-meter (BTM) solar PV and BESS for commercial and industrial users. Key drivers include electricity price instability, decarbonisation pressures from international regulations like the EU's CSRD, and energy security needs. However, the market faces significant barriers, most notably severe grid connection constraints in high-resource zones and a lack of standardised municipal wheeling frameworks. The report also notes the transition toward a competitive South African Wholesale Electricity Market (SAWEM) and the introduction of the Independent Transmission Infrastructure Procurement Programme (ITIPP) to attract private capital for grid expansion.

The document analyzes the evolving energy partnership between the US and South Africa, framed by the US's shift toward energy independence via shale gas and its 'Power Africa' initiative. While South Africa is interested in the US model for shale gas and renewables, the briefing argues that South Africa must remain cautious regarding hydraulic fracturing due to severe water constraints and infrastructure gaps. It highlights the US-South Africa Strategic Dialogue as a mechanism for cooperation on clean energy, carbon capture, and hydrocarbon development, while noting that US initiatives in Africa have targeted a limited number of countries.

The document identifies four primary constraints to South Africa's just transition: a significant finance gap, delivery frictions in project cycles, fragmented skills and employment pathways, and a lack of accountability and legitimacy. It argues that success depends on moving from high-level pledges to 'delivery-grade' finance and coordinated, place-based implementation, particularly in coal-affected regions like Mpumalanga.

The document analyzes the energy deficit in Africa, noting that over 600 million people lack electricity. It identifies key barriers to green energy adoption, including a need for $70 billion in annual investment, technical capacity gaps, and fossil fuel subsidies. The author argues that the AfCFTA can fast-track the transition by creating a unified market, reducing investment risks through dispute resolution mechanisms, and facilitating the free movement of skilled labor. Additionally, the briefing suggests that the EU-Africa partnership should shift from bilateral aid to regional support, prioritize institutional knowledge sharing on fossil fuel transitions, and focus on local adaptation of green technologies rather than mere imports.

Africa possesses vast untapped renewable energy resources, including 60% of global solar resources, yet accounts for only 1.6% of global installed renewable capacity. The continent faces significant barriers to energy transition, including a massive financing gap—requiring $557 billion by 2030—and a heavy reliance on imported technologies, with Africa contributing less than 1% of global clean energy patent applications. While the region holds 40% of global critical mineral reserves essential for green technologies, it primarily serves as a raw material supplier. The document advocates for strengthened partnerships with the G20 and Global North to improve climate finance, facilitate technology transfer, and develop local green value chains to move beyond the export of primary commodities.

This research paper by the Public Affairs Research Institute identifies two critical gaps in South Africa's just transition discourse: an over-emphasis on energy generation at the expense of energy distribution, and a reactive focus on future transition-induced inequalities rather than existing systemic drivers of poverty.

WWF South Africa aims to support a just transition to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, targeting a 40% emissions reduction by 2030 through partnerships with government, business, labour, and civil society. The strategy emphasizes shifting from coal-fired power to renewable energy as per the 2019 Integrated Resource Plan and advocates for a 10% reduction in subsidies for major carbon-emitting fossil-fuel sectors.

Africa possesses vast untapped renewable energy resources and critical minerals but faces significant barriers in financing, technology ownership, and value chain integration. While some progress has been made in solar, wind, and hydropower, the continent remains heavily reliant on imports for technology and patents. The document argues for strengthened partnerships, increased climate finance from the Global North, and the development of local manufacturing to ensure a just energy transition.

The report examines South Africa's development prospects to 2043, contrasting a 'Current Path' of modest growth and persistent poverty with a 'Combined scenario' where strategic interventions in manufacturing, trade, infrastructure, and governance lead to a 33% increase in GDP per capita. It highlights critical structural constraints, including a high disease burden, poor education quality, and energy insecurity, while proposing a transition toward an export-led, green economy.

The report assesses the current state of electricity generation, transmission, and consumption across Africa, highlighting a 'double burden' of climate and transition risk. It finds that while renewable energy potential is high, investment is heavily skewed toward generation and concentrated in a few countries, with significant data gaps hindering effective policy. The analysis of Global Production Networks (GPNs) reveals a heavy dependence on imported technology, particularly from China, and identifies specific challenges and opportunities for localising solar and wind value chains. Employment data is noted as inconsistent, though solar PV dominates the current renewable energy job landscape.

The statement contends that Africa's reliance on fossil fuels leaves its communities vulnerable to external shocks, such as the economic ripple effects of the US-Iran war. It advocates for the implementation of existing frameworks like the African Single Electricity System and the African Union Green Minerals Strategy to achieve energy sovereignty and justice, arguing that transitioning to net-zero is more cost-effective than enduring the costs of global energy instability.

Natural Justice argues that South Africa's Gas Master Plan perpetuates fossil fuel dependence and undermines the Just Energy Transition and the Global Methane Pledge. The organization highlights significant gaps in the plan regarding community compensation for land expropriation, the lack of free, prior and informed consent (FPIC), and the failure to address fugitive methane emissions. Furthermore, it criticizes the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy for an inadequate public comment period and the absence of risk mitigation strategies for gas explosions or economic fluctuations.

The document examines South Africa's efforts to shift toward a low-carbon growth trajectory through various policy frameworks like the National Development Plan and the Green Economy Accord. It highlights a fundamental tension: while the government aims for a green transition to create jobs and reduce emissions, the country remains heavily reliant on coal-fired power and extractive industries to address urgent poverty and unemployment. The paper also explores South Africa's potential to lead other African nations in green investment and policy development.

WWF South Africa's Strategy 2030 aims to unlock an economic transition that decouples human development from harmful environmental impacts. The strategy focuses on three entry points—climate and energy, food and fibre, and water—and employs three pathways: influencing policy and governance, reshaping market practices in sectors like retail and forestry, and aligning financial policy with net-zero and nature-related disclosures.

The document evaluates South Africa's energy transition, arguing that while legal frameworks for renewable investment are expanding, they fail to guarantee structural socio-economic transformation. It identifies critical gaps in industrial policy, where localisation remains fragile due to inconsistent enforcement and import reliance, and in labour policy, where renewable energy jobs are often short-term and lack stability. The report concludes that a just transition requires integrating energy reform with industrial strategy, municipal governance, and labour market policies to avoid 'low-carbon poverty'.

The document analyzes the energy partnership between Russia and South Africa, noting that while a $76-billion nuclear deal was declared unlawful and abandoned, both nations maintain a strategic need for cooperation. Russia seeks to diversify its export markets through a 'Pivot to the East' to reduce vulnerability to global commodity shocks, while South Africa seeks to resolve a chronic electricity crisis. Current cooperation has shifted toward smaller-scale projects, such as an agreement between Rosatom and the South African government to build mini hydropower plants in Mpumalanga to power rural areas.

The paper proposes a state-led fiscal strategy for South Africa's energy transition, centered on a climate response fund. It recommends mobilizing domestic resources through carbon taxes, fuel levies, and mineral royalties, alongside the issuance of climate bonds. The goal is to protect vulnerable workers, particularly in coal-dependent regions like Mpumalanga, and provide an estimated R100 billion annually for climate priorities.

The document analyzes South Africa's transition from a pariah state to a regional hegemon and global middle power, examining its macroeconomic shifts, socio-economic challenges, and foreign policy. It details South Africa's engagement with the WTO, the AU, and the EU, while highlighting domestic risks such as HIV/AIDS, unemployment, and political succession. The paper concludes by proposing three future scenarios for South Africa and corresponding strategies for German development cooperation.

The report explores four international business models—municipal ownership in Germany, state-owned enterprise (SOE) transition in Denmark, public-private partnerships (PPPs) in Morocco, and cooperatives in the United Kingdom—to identify pathways for increasing renewable energy deployment in South Africa. It argues that while the current private-sector-led model (REIPPPP) has increased capacity, it is insufficient to meet the 1.5°C Paris Agreement target or offset the decommissioning of 24,100 MW of coal plants. The authors suggest that a combination of centralized and decentralized public ownership models can address political opposition from trade unions and parties while scaling up green energy. Key recommendations include reforming Eskom into a 'green utility,' conducting a policy gap analysis, and investigating the financial feasibility of non-private ownership models.