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The document explores the 'climate-crime nexus,' detailing how environmental stresses drive rural petty crime, urban violence, drug use, gender-based violence, hate crimes, trafficking, and white-collar crime. It highlights how climate-induced economic collapse and extreme heat increase desperation and aggression, while the green transition creates new opportunities for organized crime and corruption.

The Council on Strategic Risks commends the UK Government's new voluntary Guidance for Gene Synthesis Screening as a proportionate approach to managing the risks of synthetic biology. The guidance establishes baseline expectations for the provision and use of synthetic nucleic acids and benchtop equipment, aligning the UK with US standards by setting a 50-nucleotide screening threshold. While praising the collaborative regulatory environment, the Council recommends quarterly reviews of the guidance, the creation of implementation toolkits, and the establishment of international third-party screening services. It also urges UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) to make screening a condition for publicly funded research to establish safety norms in academia.

The Council on Strategic Risks warns that the risk of nuclear miscalculation is rising due to 'entanglement,' where conventional and nuclear weapons are not sufficiently distinguished. The authors argue that current public policy debates do not match the scale of these risks, particularly as the world enters a period with effectively no nuclear arms control. They recommend that the U.S. government avoid conventional-nuclear entanglement as much as possible, suggesting a return to simple mitigation strategies such as using distinct paint marks to separate assets.

The briefing highlights three priority areas for the 79th UN General Assembly and Climate Week: the High-Level Meeting on Sea-Level Rise, climate finance negotiations, and the Summit of the Future. It emphasizes the security implications of sea-level rise for Pacific Island states, the critical funding gap for developing nations facing debt crises, and the potential for the 'Pact for the Future' to address the climate-security nexus in UN peace operations.

The Council on Strategic Risks and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory propose a series of strategic actions to strengthen the United States' biomanufacturing capabilities for pandemic preparedness. Key recommendations include executing existing national biosecurity strategies, using federal procurement to create sustainable industry demand, leveraging the Defense Production Act and FDA processes, and establishing an Interagency Working Group on Biomanufacturing. The plan also emphasizes the need for improved pathogen early warning data sharing, supply chain resilience for medical countermeasures, and the expansion of technical education to include biomanufacturing skills.

The report advocates for a 'system of systems' approach to biomanufacturing in the US, integrating pathogen early warning, regulatory agility, and public-private partnerships to rapidly produce medical countermeasures (MCMs). It identifies critical gaps in supply chain resilience, workforce development, and business models, specifically noting a dangerous dependency on foreign sources like the People's Republic of China. The authors recommend that the US government de-risk private sector investment through sustained demand signals, establish 'pivot' contracts similar to the Civil Reserve Air Fleet, and create an interagency working group to coordinate biomanufacturing efforts across federal departments.

The report identifies the intersection of food insecurity and climate change as a critical threat to US national security, citing risks such as political instability, the weaponization of food by adversaries, and geopolitical competition over agricultural technology and fish stocks. It highlights gaps in the US policy landscape, including institutional silos and underfunding of agricultural R&D. To address these, the authors propose 'The Feeding Resilience Plan,' which recommends a new Food Security Executive Order, a standing National Security Council process, expanded forecasting via FEWSNET, increased investment in climate-resilient agricultural innovation, and diplomatic engagement to oppose food weaponization and cooperate with partners and competitors like China.

North Africa faces critical ecological security threats from water scarcity and advancing desertification, which are expected to intensify by 2040 due to climate change and population growth. The region is experiencing declining rainfall, extreme heat waves, and sea-level rise, which threaten food security and socio-economic stability. Key vulnerabilities include the overexploitation of groundwater and a high dependence on food imports. The document recommends a transition to sustainable agriculture, including drip irrigation and drought-resistant crops, alongside wastewater recycling and community-based resilience initiatives.

The document examines the risk of 'sleeper species'—non-native species that remain inconspicuous until environmental shifts, often driven by climate change, trigger rapid population growth. Focusing on the Laurentian Great Lakes, it details how vectors like ballast water and recreational boating introduce these species and highlights the economic and ecological damage caused by examples like zebra mussels and spiny water fleas. The brief advocates for a shift toward prevention and early detection through international collaboration, unified regulatory frameworks for shipping, and citizen science engagement to mitigate the rising costs of biological invasions.

The document argues that while current US export controls focus on the physical synthesis of pathogens, the rise of AI-enabled Biological Design Tools (BDTs) and Large Language Models (LLMs) creates a gap in the 'design' phase of pathogen creation. It recommends that the US Department of Commerce amend the Commerce Control List to restrict software capable of designing controlled biological agents and de novo pathogens with equivalent virulence. The author suggests narrowing the 'publicly available' carve-out to prevent the open-sourcing of high-risk BDTs and calls for international harmonization through the Australia Group. The brief also identifies challenges in current Export Administration Regulations (EAR), such as the 'specially designed' terminology and the Fundamental Research Exclusion, which could create loopholes for dual-use AI software developed in academic settings.

The report argues that while military R&D alone cannot solve the climate challenge due to long equipment lifecycles, a comprehensive approach combining innovation, policy changes, and procurement can significantly reduce emissions. It highlights the transition to low-carbon technologies in operations (such as sustainable aviation fuels and hybrid vehicles), the decarbonization of fixed infrastructure through microgrids and small modular reactors, and the need to address Scope 3 emissions within the defense industrial supply chain. The authors emphasize that procurement is the most powerful tool for militaries to catalyze clean energy markets and steer the defense industry toward net-zero goals.

The briefing outlines four critical areas for the 75th NATO Summit to ensure the Alliance's future operating environment is resilient: planning for military responses to climate hazards, implementing the 2021 Action Plan on Climate and Security, operationalizing the nexus between climate and human security, and navigating the energy transition to reduce strategic vulnerabilities.

The paper examines the intersection of climate change, gender, and security within NATO, arguing that the alliance must move beyond rhetoric to operationalize this nexus. It identifies implementation challenges, such as resource constraints and a 'tradeoff perception' where non-traditional security issues are seen as distracting from core defense mandates. To overcome this, the authors propose six recommendations: incorporating climate data into gender analyses, developing use cases from past missions in Afghanistan and Kosovo, prioritizing specific mission sets like humanitarian assistance and disaster response (HADR), optimizing the placement of external climate advisors, fostering collaboration between gender and climate advisors, and advancing the nexus within broader outreach and adaptation efforts.

The report examines how the interaction of climate change and globalization increases the risk of invasive pests and pathogens, threatening the global food supply. It highlights the vulnerability of monocultures and the high economic costs of biological invasions, while linking food insecurity to national security risks and armed conflict. The author advocates for a shift toward pre-invasion biosecurity, the development of low-cost detection systems, and the adoption of a One Health framework for research to build a more resilient global food supply chain.

The briefing examines the challenges and opportunities of developing lithium in Sonora, Mexico. It highlights the tension between the global demand for clean energy minerals and the local risks of ecological damage and cartel co-option. The author criticizes the current state-led energy model, citing the debt of Pemex and the prioritization of carbon-intensive power, and suggests that Mexico should instead focus on moving up the value chain into refinement and battery production through international partnerships and stakeholder consultation.

The document details a roundtable event focused on the 'climate-food-security nexus,' arguing that the US must integrate defense and security actors into food security efforts to maintain stability and military readiness. Key recommendations include improving actionable intelligence through tools like the Climate Security Alert Tool, combating illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing through security cooperation, and increasing public investment in agricultural research and development.

The authors contend that youth are disproportionately affected by climate change and its associated security risks but remain excluded from formal policymaking. They propose three specific actions for U.S. leadership: including youth in the Paris Agreement negotiating team, utilizing youth engagement in public diplomacy and peacebuilding, and leveraging influence in international financial institutions like the World Bank to prioritize youth-led climate projects.

The policy brief identifies critical gaps in how commercial DNA and RNA synthesis providers conduct follow-up screening when orders are flagged for sequences of concern. It highlights a lack of specialized software tools, the absence of verifiable standards for customer legitimacy, and poor information-sharing infrastructure between providers and law enforcement. To mitigate biosecurity risks, the authors propose that the US government support third-party 'Know Your Customer' (KYC) services, develop decision-support software, standardize data formats for flagged orders, mandate secure information sharing, and require a second institutional approver for high-risk orders.

The Council on Strategic Risks warns against the use of terms like "non-strategic" or "low yield" to describe tactical nuclear weapons, arguing that such language creates a false sense of control. The author contends that any use of nuclear weapons, regardless of yield, would represent a drastic shift in risk and could lead to "Armageddon." The document calls for nuclear-armed nations to publicly recommit to policies acknowledging these dangers, avoid a new tactical arms race, and include the elimination of these weapons as a specific agenda item in international talks, such as the UN Summit of the Future.

The report argues that climate change and the energy transition provide new vectors for mis- and disinformation that extend beyond simple climate denialism. It categorizes these threats into physical risks (e.g., misattributing disasters), cascading risks (e.g., xenophobic narratives around climate migration), and response risks (e.g., backlash to green policies). The document highlights the role of geopolitical competition, particularly involving Russia and China, and the amplifying effect of low institutional trust and AI technology. It recommends integrating misinformation risk assessments into climate policy design and strengthening monitoring capabilities.