Search Climate Insights Directory

The research compared seven machine learning and deep learning models using three data arrangement methods to predict soil moisture and the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) in Sweden. The study found that the temporal ARIMA model was most effective for local-scale soil moisture prediction, while the multi-features Random Forest (RF) model performed best for national-scale predictions. Overall, soil moisture was easier to predict than PDSI, with previous-year average monthly soil moisture identified as the most critical feature for prediction and mapping.

The authors provide a classification of land-based mitigation technologies and practices (LMTs), identifying afforestation, reforestation, and forest management as having high potential worldwide. While bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and biochar are more viable in higher-income countries due to funding and technology, the broader deployment of LMTs is hindered by insufficient financing and limited implementation knowledge. The text emphasizes that large-scale deployment must account for gender and the rights of Indigenous Peoples and marginalised groups to avoid increasing inequalities.

The research examines barriers to sustainability in forest-risk commodity supply chains, finding that while civil society pressure and certification drive action, systemic collaboration and practical, usable metrics for impact assessment remain significant gaps.

The document analyzes social resistance and negotiations surrounding a proposed lithium mine in the Barroso region of northern Portugal, framed within the European Commission's goal to expand domestic lithium sourcing for electric vehicle batteries. Using a political ecology approach based on 27 interviews and ethnographic research from August 2021, the study explores how local communities respond to the concept of "green mining" and the European Commission's pledge for a just transition.

The document outlines the interconnectedness of the climate crisis, biodiversity loss, pollution, and social injustice. It argues that current economic and social systems based on fossil fuels and overconsumption are unsustainable, leading to severe impacts such as rising sea levels, water scarcity, and air pollution. The guide advocates for a fundamental shift toward circular economies, sustainable agriculture, and a 'just transition' that prioritizes the rights of the poor, women, and indigenous populations to ensure the planet's regeneration.

The document argues that the current climate and ecological crisis is driven by economic and social systems reliant on fossil fuels and overconsumption. It calls for a fundamental shift toward renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, and circular economic practices to protect biodiversity and ensure social justice. The guide emphasizes that the poorest populations suffer most from environmental degradation despite being the least responsible, advocating for a 'just transition' and the protection of human rights to clean air and water. It urges governments and individuals to move from a relationship of exploitation to one of care for the planet.

The research identifies 'understanding', 'awareness', and 'economic/finance' as the primary capacity gaps for land-based mitigation technologies and practices (LMTs) across five global regions. The authors suggest that addressing knowledge and understanding gaps is a critical first step to increase stakeholder attraction to LMTs. To support scaling, the paper recommends that policymakers develop dedicated support policies and regulatory frameworks, build markets, utilize carbon markets, and collaborate with local and Indigenous Peoples using bottom-up implementation plans and traditional knowledge.

The document summarizes insights from the first Science Day, arguing that centering scientific evidence, local knowledge, and transdisciplinary research is essential to overcome stalled progress on the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. It recommends that governments move beyond goal-setting to focus on ground-level outcomes, address policy incoherence and trade-offs, and utilize systemic framing to navigate simultaneous global crises.

The study analyzes IPCC Sixth Assessment Report mitigation scenarios to determine the speed and trajectory of fossil fuel reductions necessary to limit warming to 2 °C or below. It finds that pathways allowing for higher gas emissions rely heavily on carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR), which may be unrealistic due to poor model representation of storage capacity and technology diffusion. Consequently, the authors argue for the establishment of clear production and use benchmarks for coal, oil, and gas.

The document outlines insights from the FRACTAL and FRACTAL-Plus projects, arguing that climate services should transition from a product-driven focus to a process-driven approach centered on decision-making needs, learning, and relationship-building.

The roadmap, developed during a July 2023 dialogue in Nairobi, serves as an indicative guide for the African Union Commission (AUC) to enhance coordination between Member States and Regional Economic Communities (RECs) in addressing transboundary climate risks. It advocates for the creation of a formal implementation plan to align with the African Union Climate Change and Resilient Development Strategy and Action Plan (2022-2032) and suggests using the 2023 Africa Climate Summit and COP28 as platforms to signal African leadership and secure necessary financial and technical resources.

The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region, spanning from Afghanistan to Myanmar, faces severe threats from cascading climate risks that propagate across national borders. The brief asserts that local and national adaptation efforts are insufficient and proposes a regional cooperation mechanism involving state and non-state actors. This mechanism would aim to reduce the costs of climate action, overcome resource constraints, and enhance climate diplomacy through four priority areas: research and knowledge exchange, governance and policy support, diplomacy and coalition building, and implementation and finance.

The executive summary evaluates climate adaptation policies in the Nordic region, highlighting a gap between the ability to identify risks and the lack of comprehensive monitoring systems. It notes that while adaptation is mainstreamed across public bodies, it suffers from low political priority, insufficient funding compared to mitigation, and a lack of economic incentives for the private sector. The document recommends reframing adaptation as transformation, improving knowledge generation for transboundary risks, and strengthening political mandates through Nordic collaboration.

The document details the real estate portfolios of MAVERIC consortium partners, who manage assets with a total market value of approximately SEK 590 billion (excluding Swedbank's mortgage exposure). It outlines the classification of real estate assets into residential, commercial, and industrial sectors, and explains the accounting standards (IAS, IFRS, and US GAAP) used for valuation. The portfolios are heavily concentrated in offices and retail space, with primary geographic focus in Stockholm, Gothenburg, and Malmö.

The document outlines a synthesis of key scientific reports published between 2022 and 2023 to provide actionable guidance for the 2030 Agenda. It argues that current progress on the SDGs is languishing, with only about 10% of goals seeing significant progress, and calls for a course correction based on systemic, integrated, and science-based decision-making. The brief organizes its recommendations into ten thematic areas, emphasizing the need to move beyond GDP as a measure of prosperity, realign global financial systems to support low- and middle-income countries, and strengthen multilateral accountability.

The report examines how the perception of risk increases the cost of capital, thereby hindering renewable energy deployment in developing countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. It details the project development process from a developer's viewpoint, categorizes various investment risks, and analyzes RMT instruments—divided into policy and financial de-risking—designed to make projects financially viable by reducing the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) and increasing Net Present Value (NPV).

This briefing outlines the landscape of climate risk reporting, distinguishing between physical, transition, and systemic risks. It details various international standards (such as TCFD, ISSB, and SASB) and EU-specific regulations (including SFDR, CSRD, and the EU Taxonomy) that mandate or encourage sustainability disclosures. The text highlights a shift toward 'double materiality' in EU law and identifies a growing need for standardized data and a value-chain perspective in real estate risk assessment.

The paper presents AMES, an open-source, multi-sector macroeconomic model developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute. AMES is designed to integrate with the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) to create a hybrid energy-economy model. Unlike neoclassical models, AMES is based on structuralist theory, allowing it to simulate structural change and hysteresis, where energy investments can lead to persistent positive impacts on GDP and employment. It is specifically tailored for the economic conditions of low- and middle-income countries, focusing on demand-led growth and capacity utilization rather than assuming full employment and competitive market equilibrium.

The document examines how hydropower in Sweden is shifting from a baseload power source to a flexibility provider to balance intermittent renewables like wind and solar. This transition, coupled with industrial expansion in northern Sweden, increases the risk of ecological damage through hydropeaking and river regulation. The authors argue for a comprehensive, evidence-based planning approach that balances energy demands with biodiversity and community needs.

The Stockholm Environment Institute commemorates Dr. Lisa Segnestam, a Research Fellow from 2000 to 2023, noting her influence on the organization's approach to gender and social equity. Her work emphasized norm-critical and intersectional perspectives on power, vulnerability, and gendered constructions within the contexts of poverty alleviation, disaster risk reduction, and water governance.