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2,011 documents from South African Institute of International Affairs
CÔTE D’IVOIRE’S COMEBACK: THE REVIVAL OF IVORIAN REGIONAL DIPLOMACY
The document analyzes Côte d’Ivoire's transition from a passive actor during decades of crisis to a re-emerging regional power under President Alassane Ouattara. It examines the institutional framework of Ivorian diplomacy, its bilateral relations with neighbors, and its leadership roles within regional organizations like UEMOA and ECOWAS, while noting the enduring influence of Félix Houphouët-Boigny's legacy.
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Document type: Research paper
Foreign investment Promotion and domestic Protection: a Balancing act
The document examines South Africa's transition from a liberal FDI regime to one focused on 'public interest' and sustainable development. It analyzes the role of the Competition Act and the Protection of Investment Act (PIA) in regulating mergers and acquisitions (M&As), using the Walmart-Massmart merger as a case study to illustrate the tension between investor interests and domestic socio-economic goals. The paper highlights risks associated with the PIA, such as the loss of international arbitration and subjective compensation standards, while suggesting improvements through a 'One-Stop Shop' for investors and support for small, medium and micro-sized enterprises (SMMEs) to integrate into regional value chains.
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Document type: Research paper
Kenya’s Regional Diplomacy: Peripheral or Adaptive Pragmatism?
The document analyzes Kenya's foreign policy across four presidencies, noting a historical tendency to 'punch below its weight' despite economic strength. It highlights a significant shift in 2011 with the military incursion into Somalia and the subsequent pan-African focus under Uhuru Kenyatta. The paper examines Kenya's role in regional integration through the EAC and LAPSSET project, its complex relations with South Africa, and the introduction of a new Foreign Policy Framework based on five pillars of diplomacy.
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Document type: Research paper
SOUTH AFRICA’S STATE-BUILDING ROLE IN THE DRC: KICKING THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD
The document argues that while South Africa has been instrumental in the DRC's peace processes and initial state-building, its current approach is failing to ensure long-term institutional stability. The author contends that South Africa's 'quiet diplomacy' and reluctance to demand adherence to democratic values and the rule of law have allowed the DRC's political transition to stall, specifically regarding the postponement of presidential elections.
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Document type: Policy brief
TURKEY IN SOMALIA: SHIFTING PARADIGMS OF AID
The report examines Turkey's transition to an 'emerging donor' through its activities in Somalia, highlighting a 'multi-actor and multi-track policy' that combines humanitarian aid, development assistance, and strategic political engagement. While praised for its rapid delivery and respect for national ownership, the Turkish approach is noted for lacking structured monitoring and evaluation and being heavily concentrated in Mogadishu.
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Document type: Research paper
Turkey in Somalia: Shifting Paradigms of Aid
This report examines Turkey's multifaceted engagement in Somalia, which intensified following the 2010–2012 famine. It analyzes the trends and challenges of Turkey's approach as an emerging donor in a conflict setting, highlighting its willingness to deploy staff despite security risks and its emphasis on national ownership.
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Document type: Report
Trump presidency: first reflections on the impact for Africa
The paper reflects on the uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump's approach to Africa, noting a lack of specific campaign policy for the region. It suggests that while the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is likely to remain stable, future free trade negotiations with the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) could face stalemates due to Trump's 'tougher trade deals' rhetoric. The author highlights the risk of reduced focus on aid and the importance of shifting the US-Africa relationship from charity to partnership, especially as China and Japan increase their geopolitical engagement in Africa.
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Document type: Research paper
A new era of ambitious global climate action
The Paris Agreement entered into force on 4 November 2016, with 100 countries representing 67% of global greenhouse gas emissions having ratified it. COP22 and the first meeting of the CMA are tasked with developing operational rules for transparency, progress monitoring, and ramping up ambition to limit global temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius. Key points of contention include the verification of national commitments and the insufficiency of pledges to meet the $100 billion climate finance goal for developing countries by 2020. South Africa has ratified the agreement and set an emissions reduction target of 398–614 MtCO2e for 2025–2030, though this is largely conditional on external assistance and complicated by a continued reliance on coal and budgetary restraints.
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Document type: Briefing
Is thE LIVEstOCk sECtOR IN sOuthERN AFRICA PREPAREd FOR CLIMAtE ChANGE?
The document examines the vulnerability of Southern Africa's livestock sector to increasing temperatures and erratic rainfall, highlighting the severe impact of the 2015/2016 drought. It argues that while regional frameworks like the SADC Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan exist, implementation remains sporadic and donor-driven. The author advocates for a shift toward indigenous, drought-tolerant breeds—such as Nguni cattle—and the implementation of dedicated support systems for small-scale farmers to ensure food security and sustainable production.
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Document type: Policy brief
CLIMatE adaPtatION REadINEss FOR aGRICuLtuRE: dROuGht LEssONs FROM thE WEstERN CaPE, sOuth aFRICa
The document examines the gap between South Africa's comprehensive climate and disaster risk management policies and their practical implementation. It highlights that while the 2015/2016 El Niño-linked drought caused severe agricultural losses, the adoption of conservation agriculture by grain farmers in the Western Cape demonstrated improved resilience. The brief argues for a shift from disaster relief to proactive risk reduction, calling for better intergovernmental cooperation, streamlined water resource planning, and targeted financial mechanisms for vulnerable farmers.
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Document type: Policy brief
A PLACE FOR SuBNAtIONAL GOVERNMENtS At thE INtERNAtIONAL CLIMAtE NEGOtIAtING tABLE
The policy brief examines the mismatch between the 'top-down' institutional architecture of the UNFCCC and the critical role subnational governments play in implementing climate mitigation and adaptation. It highlights how rapid global urbanisation increases the importance of cities, yet these entities often lack the legal mandate, finance, and direct access to international negotiating tables. The author discusses the role of transnational actors like ICLEI and C40 in bridging this gap and recommends moving toward a 'co-production' model of governance between national and subnational levels.
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Document type: Policy brief
MAPPING CURRENT TRENDS IN INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCING IN LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES IN AFRICA WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF THE AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT FUND
The document analyzes the challenges African low-income countries (LICs) face in financing infrastructure, specifically focusing on the African Development Fund (ADF). It highlights a critical gap in concessional funding, which pushes LICs toward high-interest non-concessional loans and unsustainable debt. The paper evaluates the ADF's ability to mobilize private sector finance through blending, guarantees, and public-private partnerships (PPPs), while using Lesotho and Senegal as case studies to illustrate issues such as inadequate project preparation, limited institutional capacity, and the risks of poorly managed PPPs. It concludes with recommendations for the ADF to enhance its project preparation facilities, improve debt advisory services, and ensure more inclusive stakeholder consultations.
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Document type: Research paper
E-commerce in Africa
The document argues that while e-commerce offers significant opportunities for economic growth, SME empowerment, and gender equality in Africa, the continent faces substantial infrastructure and regulatory gaps. It highlights a critical risk: as developed nations establish high-standard regulatory benchmarks through agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), African countries may face marginalization from global value chains if they do not proactively develop compatible enabling environments.
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Document type: Research paper
Partnering with the New Development Bank
The document examines why traditional multilateral development banks struggle to meet the needs of middle-income countries, citing bureaucratic loan processes, rigid procurement rules, and stringent safeguards. Using the African Development Bank (AfDB) as a case study and analyzing experiences in Nigeria and Botswana, it argues that MICs are increasingly turning to private finance, bilateral donors like China, and domestic markets. It recommends that the NDB adopt a leaner operational model, utilize 'use of country systems' (UCS) for procurement, focus on 'green' sustainable infrastructure, and improve gender representation in governance to avoid the pitfalls of established MDBs.
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Document type: Research paper
Nigeria’s Foreign Policy Before Buhari: Global Expectations Amid Domestic and Regional Challenges
The document analyzes Nigeria's struggle to maintain its status as a 'regional hegemon' since the return to democracy in 1999. It argues that while Nigeria has a history of assertive 'Africa-centred' foreign policy, this has been eroded by domestic instability, corruption, the Boko Haram insurgency, and a lack of strategic leadership. The author highlights a shift in continental pre-eminence from Nigeria to South Africa and notes that Nigeria's regional influence in West Africa is contested and often dependent on external actors like France. The paper concludes that only a fundamental restructuring of domestic governance and the economy can restore Nigeria's international standing.
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Document type: Research paper
SOUTH AFRICA’S DROUGHT PREPAREDNESS IN THE WATER SECTOR: TOO LITTLE TOO LATE?
The document examines South Africa's response to the 2015/2016 drought, the worst in 35 years, noting a systemic tendency toward remedial rather than preventative action. It highlights critical gaps in meteorological data gathering due to theft and vandalism of monitoring stations, and the failure of many municipalities to adopt water conservation strategies. The authors propose the adoption of a national drought policy, the updating of computer-generated operating rules for water supply, and the use of citizen-science data repositories to enhance forecasting capabilities.
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Document type: Policy brief
Eyes on the prize: South African business in the DRC
The document examines South African business activities in the DRC across sectors such as mining, telecommunications, and agriculture, highlighting both the positive developmental impacts and the significant operational challenges posed by corruption and bureaucracy.
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Document type: Policy brief
BRICS: The Dream Deferred (for now)
The document examines the push for BRICS institutionalisation under Indian leadership, arguing that while creating formal mechanisms like the New Development Bank (NDB) can strengthen cooperation, the group faces significant hurdles. These include China's perceived preference for the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) over the NDB, a lack of consensus on security and domestic politics, and severe domestic economic and political instability across member states.
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Document type: Research paper
IllIcIt FInancIal Flows
The research focuses on commercial tax evasion within IFFs, clarifying the distinctions between abusive transfer pricing, trade mispricing, and TBML. Using the IMF DOTS methodology and a developed TBML model, the authors estimate flows for Nigeria, South Africa, Morocco, Egypt, and Zambia. The findings indicate that while some countries show declining trade mispricing, the TBML model suggests increasing financial outflows for all five. The paper highlights significant data anomalies in UNCOMTRADE and IMF datasets, particularly regarding South Africa's extractive exports, and advocates for the implementation of the Unique Consignment Reference (UCR) and improved inter-agency cooperation to curb these flows and support socio-economic development.
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Document type: Research paper
MozaMbique: options for Multi-sector approaches to fDi
The document examines Mozambique's reliance on FDI and overseas development assistance (ODA) for post-war reconstruction. While megaprojects in extractives and infrastructure have driven GDP growth, the paper highlights a disconnect between this growth and human development indicators. It analyzes the legal frameworks governing mining and hydrocarbons, the impact of coal and natural gas projects, and the challenges of agricultural development through initiatives like ProSAVANA. The author argues for leveraging the technology and infrastructure of the extractive sector to support agriculture and local community prosperity.
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Document type: Research paper