Search Climate Insights Directory

The analysis finds that while FDI in the SADC region is heavily driven by natural resource endowments and GDP, secondary activities (manufacturing and construction) are the primary drivers of job creation and inclusive growth. The paper highlights a mismatch between export potential and FDI in sectors like aquaculture and meat, while identifying strong growth opportunities in agro-processing and a potential revival in textiles driven by sustainable sourcing. It concludes that while services are growing, they provide significantly fewer jobs than industrial activities, validating the SISR's focus on industrialisation.

The document examines how COVID-19 exposes weaknesses in global institutions and threatens Africa through economic shocks, reduced development aid, and a retreat from multilateralism. It highlights the risk of increased trade protectionism and the potential for climate goals to be sidelined. The author advocates for the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the creation of a continental climate finance fund, and a proactive African role in reforming global governance to mitigate these risks.

The author contends that nationalistic responses to Covid-19 are insufficient and that the G20, chaired by Saudi Arabia, should convene to coordinate fiscal, monetary, and scientific efforts. The text emphasizes the vulnerability of Africa's public health systems and calls for the establishment of a global medical stockpiles reserve to address long-term health inequality and supply chain failures.

The South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) has closed its offices in Cape Town and on the Wits campus and cancelled all public events to slow the spread of the COVID-19 virus. The institute will continue its policy engagements and analysis through remote work and digital communication platforms.

The report details a sensitisation project in Botswana led by the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) and the Botswana Council of Non-Governmental Organisations (BOCONGO). Key activities included a workshop for 20 civil society organisations (CSOs) on 10 March 2020, where participants discussed the APRM's potential to depoliticise socio-economic criticism and the risks of an 'implementation deficit' regarding National Programmes of Action (NPoA). The project identified a need for additional funding to ensure representation of CSOs outside the capital, Gaborone, to avoid the lack of national coverage experienced in a similar Namibian project. Meetings were held with the Botswana government, including the Director of Governance in the Office of the President, who admitted the country is "still far behind" in APRM implementation. Consultations with international partners like the European Union, the British High Commission, and Friedrich Ebert Stiftung focused on securing funding and aligning the project with donor objectives. The report also notes meetings with the University of Botswana and the Directorate on Corruption and Economic Crime (DCEC) to foster collaboration between academia, government, and civil society.

The document analyzes how trade facilitation efforts in East Africa affect women informal cross-border traders, who constitute up to 70% of such trade in Africa. Using the Busia One-Stop Border Post (OSBP) as a case study, it evaluates the effectiveness of 'hard' infrastructure (like border facilities) and 'soft' infrastructure (like Simplified Trade Regimes and capacity building). While the Busia OSBP has reduced customs processing times by 80% and improved relations between traders and officials, significant gaps remain, including inadequate sanitation on the Ugandan side, limited access to formal finance, and the persistence of predatory middlemen. The paper recommends gender-sensitive infrastructure, simplified cross-border banking, and the use of the African Continental Free Trade Area to create continent-wide framework STRs.

The document argues that healthy ecosystems, such as mangroves and wetlands, act as critical buffers that reduce the physical exposure of African coastal cities to natural hazards. It promotes the adoption of Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) and Ecosystem-based Disaster Risk Reduction (Eco-DRR) as cost-effective, nature-based solutions. While international frameworks like the Sendai Framework and the Paris Agreement provide support, the author notes that regional policies in Africa linking biodiversity conservation to disaster risk reduction are virtually non-existent. The brief identifies significant barriers to implementation, including weak governance, fragmented sectoral approaches, and a lack of funding for capacity development, recommending a holistic, multi-sectoral integration of nature-based solutions into national development strategies.

The document examines sub-national pooled financing mechanisms (SPFMs) as a tool for South African municipalities to access cost-effective private capital for infrastructure. While SPFMs have successfully mobilized billions in developed and emerging economies, they have not yet been implemented in Africa. In South Africa, the author identifies a mature bond market and appetite for municipal finance, but notes significant barriers including deteriorating municipal financial health, a lack of technical capacity, and limiting regulations from the National Treasury. The brief argues that the Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA) holds a near-monopoly on municipal lending and should lead de-risking efforts to catalyze a vibrant local government debt market.

The document examines South Africa's strategic positioning in global nuclear security amidst domestic economic decline and budget cuts to its foreign affairs and defence sectors. It highlights the risks posed by nuclear tensions in Iran and the Korean Peninsula, and suggests that South Africa can maintain its global relevance through 'niche diplomacy' and strategic partnerships. The author recommends using the 2020 NPT Review Conference and AU chairmanship to build a unified African position on nuclear disarmament and exploring informal 'Friends of the Chair' diplomatic models to bypass political impasses.

South Africa introduced a carbon tax in 2019 to meet greenhouse gas emission reduction targets of 34% by 2020 and 42% by 2025. The policy primarily targets the energy sector, which is responsible for approximately 80% of the country's emissions due to a heavy reliance on coal. While the tax aims to incentivize a shift toward renewable energy, it faces challenges including potential conflicts with WTO non-discrimination principles, the risk of carbon leakage due to a lack of border price adjustments, and negative socio-economic impacts such as increased consumer prices and potential job losses in energy-intensive industries like mining and steel. The document argues for a balanced approach that includes worker re-skilling, targeted incentives for renewables, and regional coordination through agreements like the AfCFTA to prevent protectionism and ensure a just transition.

The document examines the role of public-private partnerships (PPPs) in developing infrastructure in the SADC region, distinguishing them from privatisation and highlighting their potential to overcome budget constraints and technical inefficiencies. It identifies key barriers to PPP uptake in SADC, including political interference, lack of administrative maturity, and the risks of hidden debt through government guarantees. The briefing recommends the establishment of independent PPP units, improved public engagement protocols, and rigorous due diligence on partners to ensure sustainable project delivery.

The AfCFTA is projected to generate $16.1 billion in welfare gains and a 33% increase in intra-African trade, though full tariff-free trade (97%) will take 15 years to realize. Key challenges for investors include non-tariff barriers, stringent rules of origin to ensure domestic value-addition, and the lengthy process of services liberalisation.

The paper outlines three primary areas where South Africa can exert leadership as AU chair: 'Silencing the Guns' by mediating conflicts in Libya and South Sudan; ensuring the timely implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) by July 1, 2020; and revitalizing the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) to improve continental governance.

The research paper examines Turkey's efforts to re-assert regional influence through military and economic engagement in North and East Africa. It highlights Turkey's support for the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Libya, its strategic energy interests in the Mediterranean, and its long-term development and diplomatic presence in the Horn of Africa, particularly Somalia. The text notes the complex interplay between Turkey, Russia, and the EU in managing the Libyan crisis, as well as Turkey's rivalry with a bloc including Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

The report analyzes the services sector's role in African development and the implications of the AfCFTA. It identifies Egypt, Morocco, South Africa, Ghana, and Nigeria as the continent's largest services exporters. The study highlights a significant gap in comprehensive services trade data, particularly for Mode 3 (commercial presence), and recommends implementing the 2010 Manual on Statistics of International Trade in Services. For South Africa, the report finds that services value added in gross exports is more than double the share of services exports, emphasizing the sector's role as an input for manufacturing. It argues for a developmental trade strategy that integrates services with industrial policy and warns against premature deindustrialization.

The document examines Rwanda's engagement with the G20 Compact with Africa (CwA), arguing that Rwanda's 'reform culture capital' makes it an ideal candidate for the initiative. It details Rwanda's transition from a post-genocide foundation stage (1994-2004) to a development stage (2005-2018), leading up to Vision 2050. The brief highlights the CwA's role in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) through public-private partnerships (PPPs) to address infrastructure deficits, such as the $1.3 billion Isaka–Kigali rail project. While noting early successes in tax-to-GDP ratios and FDI, the author warns that the CwA still reflects the interests of developed nations and that Rwanda's small economy limits its ability to drive CwA adoption across East Africa.

The document examines Ghana's engagement with the G20 Compact with Africa (CwA), noting that while the country has a strong appetite for reform, many commitments were already part of IMF programmes. It finds that while FDI generally increased between 2015 and 2018, there is little evidence that this was caused by the CwA, and the level of investment has not been commensurate with the reforms required. The author argues for a more inclusive, all-government approach and stronger engagement with the domestic private sector to unlock meaningful investment.

The G20 Compact with Africa (CwA) offers a framework for macroeconomic, business, and financial reforms to attract foreign direct investment (FDI), but Zimbabwe has failed to engage with it. Despite the alignment between CwA goals and Zimbabwe's Transitional Stabilisation Programme (TSP), the country is hindered by a lack of genuine reform culture, significant multilateral debt arrears, and a preference for bilateral infrastructure funding from China. Furthermore, there is a profound lack of awareness of the CwA among Zimbabwean policymakers and private sector stakeholders.

The document examines the role of public-private partnerships (PPPs) in addressing infrastructure deficits in the SADC region, contrasting them with privatisation and traditional procurement. It identifies key barriers to PPP success in Africa, including political interference, lack of dedicated PPP units, and the risks of hidden debt through government guarantees. The author recommends establishing independent PPP units, formalising public consultation processes, and conducting rigorous due diligence on partners to ensure transparency and value for money in sectors such as energy, transport, and water.

The document examines the AU's struggle to implement the 2014 Convention on Cyber Security and Personal Data Protection, noting that only seven of 55 member states had ratified it by October 2019. It compares the AU's approach to the EU's role as a 'norm entrepreneur' through regulations like the GDPR and the Cybersecurity Act. The author highlights Mauritius as a continental best practice for holistic national cyber strategy and recommends that the AU adopt 'Agile Governance Principles', engage more with civil society, and establish a continental body similar to the European Network and Information Security Agency (ENISA).