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The document examines how the Syrian conflict destabilizes the 'resistance front' (Syria, Iran, Hizballah, and Hamas) and alters regional power balances. In Lebanon, the crisis exacerbates sectarian tensions and threatens Hizballah's strategic supply lines. In the Occupied Palestinian Territories, it has forced Hamas to shift its political alignment from Damascus to Qatar and Egypt, potentially strengthening Hamas relative to Fatah but not necessarily advancing the Palestinian national cause. The authors argue that the 'new Arab cold war' framework is becoming less relevant as the Syrian regime collapses and regional actors like Egypt seek new diplomatic paths.

The study examines the relationship between social cohesion, trust, and violence in Haiti, focusing on the Southern region. It argues that intense urbanization and rural migration have led to the formation of slums where traditional social bonds are dissolved and trust in institutions is low, creating an environment where social conflicts are more likely to escalate into violence. While low trust is a general trait across rural and urban communities, the specific lack of 'vertical' social bonds in slums increases the risk of violent mobilization. The author recommends strengthening social cohesion through production-based cooperatives and reforming the relationship between political elites and urban masses.

The report examines the relationship between social cohesion, trust, and violence in southern Haiti, focusing on the impact of rural migration and the formation of urban slums. It argues that the breakdown of traditional social bonds and a lack of trust in both interpersonal relations and institutions like the state, NGOs, and MINUSTAH create an environment where social unrest is more likely to turn violent. The study highlights that 'vertical' social bonds—those linking different social backgrounds—are particularly weak in slums, making these areas breeding grounds for political mobilization through violence. It recommends fostering social cohesion through productive cooperatives and renewing the relationship between political leadership and the urban masses.

The policy brief examines the 'letting others lead' approach of European states toward the regulation of commercial military services. It contends that the perceived restrictiveness of European frameworks is an illusion, as core military tasks are routinely outsourced and regulations are often interpreted permissively or bypassed. This lack of internal rigor leads European states to relegate regulatory initiative to allies (such as the US and UK), multi-stakeholder codes of conduct, and industry self-regulation, which further fragments the global regulatory landscape and reduces accountability.

The policy brief examines the growing but under-reported reliance on private companies for military services across Europe. It contends that unlike the US and UK, European states maintain 'hybrid' arrangements where the state remains closely linked to market actors, which masks the extent of commercialization and prevents public democratic debate. The author identifies four drivers of this trend—technological, economic, strategic, and public management processes—and argues that the resulting lack of clear accountability benefits security professionals who prefer to avoid public scrutiny.

The document argues that Myanmar's 2008 constitution fails to meet the aspirations of ethnic minorities due to the military's institutionalized dominance and the rejection of federalism. It highlights that the military's 25% control of parliament allows it to block the three-fourths majority required for amendments. While the creation of regional and state assemblies offers a potential path for internal self-governance, these bodies currently lack real power and funding. The authors suggest that a long-term strategy of gradual amendments, starting with increasing the financial and administrative powers of local assemblies, is more realistic than immediate tripartite negotiations or formal parliamentary processes.

The report analyzes the geopolitical tensions arising from natural gas discoveries in the Cyprus Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), particularly the conflict between the Republic of Cyprus (RoC) and Turkey. It explores how these resources could either catalyze a political settlement or exacerbate regional instability. Additionally, it provides a comparative analysis of wealth management, contrasting the 'resource curse' seen in Sudan with the successful 'Norwegian model' to offer guidance for Cyprus on avoiding economic pitfalls like 'Dutch disease'.

The author contends that official archives and contemporary reports often serve as political legitimization rather than factual records. Using examples such as secret Swedish-US military cooperation, the 1980s submarine incursions in Sweden, and Cold War-era terrorism in Europe, the paper demonstrates how 'formative events' are frequently misinterpreted due to classification. The author advocates for a 'triangulation' method—combining archive material, technical evidence, and oral history—to uncover truths that states intentionally keep off the record.

The paper explores how cybersecurity is being shifted into the domain of warfare, a process the author argues contributes to greater military control over civilian networks. It analyzes three dominant legal models: the view that cyberwar is nearly impossible to regulate, the call for new international treaties, and the prevailing consensus that existing laws of armed conflict (LOAC) are sufficient. The author proposes a 'comprehensive legal approach' that coordinates multiple legal fields to address the full spectrum of cybersecurity threats beyond just the 'war' framing. The text also details the technical and legal difficulties of applying the UN Charter's use-of-force rules and the principles of distinction and proportionality to computer network attacks (CNA).

The document analyzes the intersection of international law and cyberwar, highlighting the tension between those who view cyber attacks as acts of war and those who see them as computer security problems. It critiques the 'cyber-doom' discourse used by 'cyberhawks' to justify increased military spending and the institutionalization of cyberwar units, such as the United States Cyber Command. The author argues that the Law of Armed Conflict (LOAC) only addresses a small portion of the challenge and suggests that policy makers should instead prioritize critical information infrastructure protection (CIIP) and a 'cyber peace' agenda to prevent the infringement of civil liberties and international instability.

The document examines the tension between international humanitarian law (IHL) and international human rights law (IHRL), identifying four primary legal logics—co-applicationist, separatist, sceptic, and operational—that shape how these frameworks interact during armed conflict. It highlights that while convergence is often viewed as a positive development in Norwegian policy, it creates significant practical and legal dilemmas regarding extraterritoriality, the principle of proportionality, and the operational clarity required by military forces.

The report examines the transition of Turkish foreign policy under the AKP from a non-interventionist stance to a pro-active 'zero problems with neighbours' approach. It argues that the Arab Spring, particularly the civil war in Syria, has forced a return to more pragmatic and security-oriented policies. A central theme is the 'existential fear of Kurdish separatism,' as autonomy in northern Iraq and Syria threatens Turkey's internal stability and reignites conflict with the PKK. While Turkey has achieved economic growth and a 'middle power' status, its soft power is undermined by domestic democratic deficiencies and the imprisonment of journalists and political opponents.

The text examines the evolution of Turkish foreign policy since the AKP came to power in 2002. It describes a transition from a cautious, secular, and Western-focused approach to a strategy that emphasizes Turkey's Muslim identity and seeks to increase its regional influence in the Middle East through 'soft power' and a 'zero-problems' discourse. The author notes that while the government maintains a 'value-based' foreign policy, it must balance this with national interests and the economic growth driven by these regional engagements.

The report argues that gender equality and women's rights have been historically excluded from the Cyprus peace negotiations, which have focused almost exclusively on ethnic divides. To remedy this, the Gender Advisory Team (GAT) provides a framework of recommendations based on UNSCR 1325 to ensure that a future federal state incorporates non-discrimination, gender-balanced power-sharing, and protected economic and property rights for women. The document details specific legal and institutional changes needed in the constitution and legislation to prevent the perpetuation of patriarchal structures in a post-conflict society.

The document analyzes the Colombian peace process as a case study for the 'peace versus inclusion' dilemma. While the agreement is noted for its historic inclusivity regarding women and LGBTQ rights, these progressive elements contributed to its initial rejection in a 2016 referendum. The author explores how the pursuit of 'positive peace' (structural change) can clash with the need for public legitimacy and how referenda can paradoxically polarize populations and undermine long-term implementation.

The report analyzes the challenges of the Afghan conflict, emphasizing the need for a proactive, inclusive peace process. It suggests that successful negotiations require third-party facilitation, a structured negotiating framework, and transitional arrangements to manage security and governance. The authors argue against narrow power-sharing between elites, proposing instead a multidimensional approach involving power-sharing, power-dividing, power-creating, and power-diffusing mechanisms across political, military, territorial, and economic dimensions to ensure long-term stability and legitimacy.

The study examines how insurgent violence influenced electoral manipulation during Afghanistan's 2009 presidential election. Using a forensic 'last-digit' test validated by a physical recount, the authors find an inverted-U shaped relationship: moderate violence increases fraud by limiting the presence of election observers, but extreme violence decreases fraud by disrupting the loyalty networks required to manipulate results. The analysis further distinguishes between the incumbent and the challenger, finding that the challenger's fraud exhibits 'spatial displacement'—shifting to neighboring districts when local violence is too high—whereas the incumbent's fraud, tied to official state apparatus, does not.

The report outlines four primary challenges in studying wartime sexual violence: definitional inconsistency, difficulties in measuring magnitude, the need for variables beyond scale (such as perpetrator and victim identity), and inherent biases in data sources. To address these, the authors recommend adopting the International Criminal Court's definition of sexual violence, using severity categories instead of numerical estimates, and employing data triangulation. A pilot study covering 20 African countries demonstrated that global data collection is attainable, though it highlighted the need for time-variant and location-specific data to develop early-warning systems.

The report analyzes how the Somali diaspora, estimated at 1-1.5 million people, supports its country of origin through private remittances, collective fundraising, and private investment. It highlights the critical role of the 'hawala' money transfer system and the significant impact of diaspora-funded social services in education and health. The document argues that while the diaspora is a vital lifeline, its effectiveness is hindered by security concerns, counter-terrorism regulations in host countries, and a lack of coordination. It recommends that the UN act as a facilitator by providing matching funds, improving the regulatory environment for transfers, and expanding professional return programs like QUESTS/MIDA.

The paper analyzes German foreign policy in Afghanistan post-9/11, rejecting the idea that it was solely driven by a 'culture of restraint' or operational adaptation. Instead, it proposes a 'two-level game' framework where Berlin navigated demands from NATO allies (particularly the US) and domestic public opposition. The author identifies four phases: an initial 'high risk' response to 9/11, a 'risk-minimization' defensive phase (2002-2006), an 'offensive risk-minimization' phase (2007-2011) characterized by symbolic COIN operations and increased aid, and a final 'zero risk' decision to withdraw by 2014 following US policy shifts.