Search Climate Insights Directory

The 2025 Impact Report details the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative's progress in securing diplomatic support, engaging subnational governments, and conducting research to create a 1.5ºC-aligned mechanism for phasing out fossil fuels. Key achievements include the announcement of the First International Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels for April 2026, the addition of Cambodia and Saint Kitts and Nevis to the participating nations, and a resolution in support of the treaty passed by the IUCN. The initiative has grown to include 18 participating countries from the Global South, over 140 cities, and 4,200 civil society organizations.

The report highlights that G20 fossil fuel reserves contain over a trillion tons of CO2 equivalent, which would exceed the 2ºC carbon budget if fully extracted. It notes that emissions from G20 fossil fuel extraction nearly doubled between the 1992 Rio Summit and 2020. Despite this, the document argues that G20 economies have become less dependent on fossil fuel rents over the last three decades, making them better equipped to transition. It specifically identifies the USA, Canada, Australia, the UK, Germany, and Italy as being best placed to transition first and fastest.

The report argues that a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty can catalyze the financing necessary for a global just transition by establishing new funding regimes, creating state obligations, and supporting parallel financial reforms. It categorizes potential solutions into three clusters: debt management, new forms of finance and investment, and the replacement of fossil fuel revenues. The authors emphasize that wealthy nations must assume historical responsibility by ending extraction first and providing financial support to low and middle-income countries (LMICs) to diversify their economies.

The declaration from the III Assembly “Amazon free of fossil fuels and all forms of extractivism” asserts that the Amazon must not be a "sacrifice zone for external interests." The signatories demand respect for indigenous self-determination and the right to consent, rejecting the "false promise of development" associated with oil and gold extraction. They highlight the destructive impact of oil spills and the criminalization of environmental defenders, while arguing that fossil fuel exploitation deepens the global climate crisis. The group rejects carbon credits as "false solutions" and calls for a "just and popular energy transition" and the remediation of ecological damages, specifically citing victories in Yasuní, Ecuador, and among the Achuar and Zio'bain peoples.

The report finds that Australia, Canada, and the UK (the "Big Three") have historically and currently dominated fossil fuel extraction emissions within the Commonwealth. While these wealthy nations have the highest emissions, they are the least economically dependent on fossil fuel rents. In contrast, lower- and middle-income countries like Nigeria and Papua New Guinea are more exposed to financial risks from carbon liabilities. The report concludes that Commonwealth production plans are inconsistent with the 1.5°C goal, with the Big Three's share of the gap between Business as Usual and Net Zero scenarios exceeding 50%.

The report examines how fossil fuels correlate with inter-state wars, militarism, and internal violence, while advocating for a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty to manage a just transition to renewable energy. It highlights the 'peacetime-wartime continuum' of violence, noting that fossil fuel revenues often fund conflicts and that extraction sites frequently experience human rights abuses and gender-based violence. The document calls for a treaty based on non-proliferation, a fair phase-out, and a global just transition to prevent the replication of colonial extractivist patterns in the renewable energy sector.

The author asserts that the 'Yes to Yasuní' victory in Ecuador demonstrates the power of civil society to pressure governments to end fossil fuel extraction. The document links this local success to the broader goals of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, emphasizing the need for an international legal framework that replaces the 'extractivist economic matrix' with global cooperation and financial compensation from the Global North to support a just energy transition.

The document argues that a just transition requires wealthy, high-emitting nations to phase out fossil fuels first and fastest while providing financial and technological support to less wealthy countries. It outlines a broad menu of policy tools across resource management, financial markets, fiscal and monetary policy, economic diversification, and global governance to manage the decline of fossil fuel production and consumption equitably.

The Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty initiative proposes a framework for a global treaty to end the expansion of oil, gas, and coal. Based on 20 global consultations, the document argues that the treaty must be built on three core values—justice, rights, and public goods—to avoid replicating colonial and corporate domination. It emphasizes a 'bottom up' approach to ensure the participation of marginalized groups and Indigenous Peoples from the outset. The proposed framework rests on three pillars: a just transition for workers and communities, the non-proliferation of new fossil fuel exploration, and a fair phase-out of existing production aligned with the 1.5C goal.

Ministers from 13 nations met on 26 May 2024 in Antigua and Barbuda to reaffirm their commitment to a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty. The group expressed concern that planned fossil fuel production by 2030 exceeds Paris Agreement limits and highlighted how debt burdens hinder the transition for small island nations. They agreed to establish an expert working group on financing a just transition and to seek legal advice on the most effective pathway to develop the treaty over the next 12 months.

The document outlines the necessity of a Global Just Transition to phase out fossil fuels by 2050, emphasizing the disproportionate economic burden on developing nations. It proposes a framework for financing this transition through new multilateral funds, the redirection of USD 5.9 trillion in annual fossil fuel subsidies, and systemic reforms to debt, taxation, and international financial institutions.

The report outlines a framework for a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty based on three foundational values: justice, rights, and the public good. It details a vision for a post-fossil fuel future characterised by self-determination and thriving ecosystems, while identifying risks such as 'false solutions' and 'treaty fatigue'. The document proposes operationalising the treaty through national laws, regional energy sovereignty, and global targets based on historic responsibility and the 'polluter pays' principle.

The document positions cities as central actors in the global movement to end fossil fuel dependence, noting that while they are major emitters, they can lead through 'city diplomacy' and local policy. It outlines 21 key recommendations divided into two main categories: enhancing city diplomacy and removing the 'social licence' of the fossil fuel industry, and implementing sectoral decarbonisation in transportation, energy, the built environment, and waste management. The brief emphasizes that urban action must be coupled with national-level pressure to ensure a just transition for workers and marginalized communities.

The fact sheet asserts that fossil fuels exacerbate and sustain global conflicts, with an estimated 25-50% of interstate wars since 1973 linked to oil. It argues that the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty can serve as a 'climate tool for peace' by managing a fast, funded, and fair transition away from fossil fuels, complementing the Paris Agreement by focusing on the supply side rather than just emissions. The document outlines the systemic impacts of extractivism—including gendered violence, human rights violations, and the militarization of extraction sites—and calls for governments to join a growing bloc of champion countries, including Vanuatu and Tuvalu, to negotiate the treaty.

In a speech at COP28, Colombian President Gustavo Petro calls for a global Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty to end the exploitation of oil, coal, and gas. He argues that current fossil fuel deposits are sufficient to lead the planet to a 3°C temperature increase and subsequent collapse. Petro frames the climate crisis as a struggle between 'fossil capital' and human life, highlighting the imminent threat of 'ethnocide' for island nations like Tuvalu and the necessity of a rational transition for oil-dependent economies, including Colombia.

The briefing analyzes the communique from the 52nd Pacific Island Forum Leaders’ Meeting, noting the historic mention of a "Fossil Fuel Free Pacific" while criticizing qualifiers that weaken the commitment. It highlights the use of terms like "aspire" and "in our energy systems" as loopholes that allow countries, particularly Australia and New Zealand, to avoid committing to a phase-out of fossil fuel production. The document also criticizes Australia for using climate resilience funding and resettlement offers for Tuvalu to mask its continued support for fossil fuel companies and its pursuit of carbon dioxide dumping legislation.

The briefing contends that fossil fuel extraction in Africa has failed to provide energy access, with 600 million people remaining without power while resources are exported. It highlights that Africa possesses 39% of the global renewable energy potential but lacks the investment and technology to harness it. The document proposes a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty based on non-proliferation, fair phase-out, and a just transition to provide the international framework needed to shift financing from fossil fuels to renewables and ensure a just energy transition for the continent.

The briefing contends that fossil fuel extraction in Africa has failed to provide universal electricity access, with 600 million people still lacking power, while most production is exported. It highlights that Africa possesses 39% of the world's renewable energy potential but receives only 2% of global renewable investments. The document proposes a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty based on three pillars: non-proliferation of new infrastructure, a just phase-out of existing production, and financial/technical support for a global transition to renewables.

The report examines the pathways for a just energy transition in the Pacific, highlighting that while 14 Pacific Island Countries (PICs) contribute only 0.23% of global emissions, they are disproportionately affected by climate change. It estimates the upfront cost of replacing fossil fuel electricity generation in eight profiled PICs between $691 million and $1 billion USD. The document argues that a just transition must go beyond technology swaps to include economic diversification, poverty eradication, and the protection of workers, particularly in Papua New Guinea's fossil fuel sector. It also warns of a 'double exposure' where the region faces both climate impacts and potential environmental damage from increased mining of Energy Transition Metals (ETMs).

The document contends that qualifiers such as "unabated" and "inefficient" in climate policies allow the fossil fuel industry to maintain production and profits despite the 1.5C goal. It asserts that there is no globally agreed definition for "unabated" fossil fuels and that carbon capture and storage (CCS) remains unproven at scale. Similarly, the term "inefficient" regarding subsidies is viewed as vague, contributing to a surge in fossil fuel subsidies to over 7 trillion USD in 2022. The briefing calls for unambiguous language focusing on the absolute decline of both production and emissions to align with the Paris Agreement.