FOSSIL FUEL EXPANSION IN THE COMMONWEALTH DOMINATED BY 3 WEALTHY COUNTRIES

The report finds that Australia, Canada, and the UK (the "Big Three") have historically and currently dominated fossil fuel extraction emissions within the Commonwealth. While these wealthy nations have the highest emissions, they are the least economically dependent on fossil fuel rents. In contrast, lower- and middle-income countries like Nigeria and Papua New Guinea are more exposed to financial risks from carbon liabilities. The report concludes that Commonwealth production plans are inconsistent with the 1.5°C goal, with the Big Three's share of the gap between Business as Usual and Net Zero scenarios exceeding 50%.

• Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom (the "Big Three") have historically dominated fossil fuel extraction in the Commonwealth, accounting for over 60% of emissions embedded in extraction since the Rio Summit, despite representing only 6% of the population.
• Current and future extraction plans in the Commonwealth are inconsistent with the 1.5°C temperature goal. Business as Usual (BAU) plans exceed the Net Zero scenario by 84 billion tons up to 2050, with the Big Three accounting for more than half of this excess (45 billion tons under Net Zero and 90 billion under BAU).
• Wealthy Commonwealth nations are the least dependent on fossil fuel rents, with the UK, Australia, and Canada seeing rents represent less than 2% of GDP. Conversely, countries with lower contributions to climate change face higher dependence, such as Trinidad and Tobago (11%), Nigeria (7%), and Malaysia (5%).
• Lower- and middle-income Commonwealth countries are more exposed to carbon liabilities relative to their national wealth. Papua New Guinea and Nigeria experience "extreme" exposure under IMF policy prescriptions, whereas the UK remains at low risk due to its diversified economy and declining reserves.
• Australia maintains a significant expansion of coal and gas; it possesses the world's largest pipeline of coal export projects, comprising 61% of proposed global projects.
• India is increasing its coal production to enhance self-reliance, with the Ministry of Coal targeting 1.5 billion tonnes per year by 2030, more than double its 2021 levels.

APA

West, J. (2024). FOSSIL FUEL EXPANSION IN THE COMMONWEALTH DOMINATED BY 3 WEALTHY COUNTRIES. Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative. https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/s/CHOGM-BRIEFING-Full-Report-FossilFuelTreaty.pdf

Chicago

West, Johnny. FOSSIL FUEL EXPANSION IN THE COMMONWEALTH DOMINATED BY 3 WEALTHY COUNTRIES. Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, 2024. https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/s/CHOGM-BRIEFING-Full-Report-FossilFuelTreaty.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=West |first1=Johnny |title=FOSSIL FUEL EXPANSION IN THE COMMONWEALTH DOMINATED BY 3 WEALTHY COUNTRIES |publisher=Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative |date=October 2024 |url=https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/s/CHOGM-BRIEFING-Full-Report-FossilFuelTreaty.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{west2024fossil, author = {West, Johnny}, title = {{FOSSIL FUEL EXPANSION IN THE COMMONWEALTH DOMINATED BY 3 WEALTHY COUNTRIES}}, institution = {Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative}, year = {2024}, month = oct, url = {https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/s/CHOGM-BRIEFING-Full-Report-FossilFuelTreaty.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }