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In 2021, wind and solar generated over 10% of global electricity for the first time, but record-high electricity demand led to a record rise in coal power and the largest absolute increase in power sector CO2 emissions ever recorded.

In 2021, wind and solar power reached a record 10.3% of global electricity generation, but this growth was insufficient to offset a historic surge in electricity demand. Consequently, global coal generation and power sector CO2 emissions both hit all-time highs, with coal meeting 59% of new demand. While 50 countries now derive over 10% of their power from wind and solar, the report warns that the global energy transition is significantly off track from the IEA's net-zero pathway, which requires wind and solar to grow by 20% annually through 2030.

In 2021, global electricity demand grew by 5.4%, the fastest rate since 2010. While solar and wind generation continued to rise, coal generation reached an all-time high, leading to a 7% increase in power sector CO2 emissions. This resulted in the first increase in global electricity carbon intensity since 2011, moving the sector further away from the IEA's 1.5 degree pathway.

Analysis by Ember, E3G, RAP, and Bellona indicates the EU can end Russian gas imports by 2025, two years ahead of the European Commission's 2027 target. This goal is achievable without building new gas import infrastructure or delaying the phase-out of coal power, provided the EU fully implements the Fit for 55 plan and removes barriers to wind and solar growth.

The document asserts that relying on fossil gas as a transition fuel is an unreliable energy strategy, especially given the risks highlighted by the current gas crisis. It argues that market forces and carbon pricing are insufficient to ensure a timely coal phase-out. To maintain the 1.5C target, the author urges policymakers to legislate the closure of coal power stations by 2030 and implement a policy framework to achieve a clean electricity grid across Europe by 2035.

The 2021 gas crisis caused a paradigm shift in the EU's electricity transition, with skyrocketing prices making fossil gas more expensive than coal and enhancing the competitiveness of renewables. For the first time in Europe, combined wind and solar generation (547 TWh) exceeded gas (524 TWh). While solar growth is surging in countries like Spain and the Netherlands, it remains stagnant in others such as Italy, Czechia, and Romania. Additionally, the structural decline of nuclear power in the EU has slowed decarbonisation, as a significant portion of renewable growth has replaced lost nuclear output rather than fossil fuels.

In 2021, EU-27 electricity demand nearly returned to 2019 levels, with renewables reaching a record 1068 TWh and accounting for 37% of production. A critical shift occurred in the second half of 2021 when soaring gas prices made fossil gas more expensive than coal, leading new renewable output to predominantly replace gas rather than coal. While wind and solar output hit record highs (547 TWh), overall power sector emissions fell by an average of 2.5% per year since 2019, which is less than half the 6% annual decline required to align with a 1.5C pathway. Nuclear power continued a long-term structural decline, accounting for 26% of production in 2021.

The European Electricity Review 2022 identifies a 'paradigm shift' in the EU power sector where soaring gas prices in 2021 led new renewable energy to replace fossil gas instead of coal. While wind and solar reached record generation of 547 TWh in 2021, overall power sector emissions declined at less than half the rate required to meet 1.5°C targets. The report highlights that coal phase-outs are stalling in some regions, such as Poland, and that the structural decline of nuclear power is further slowing decarbonization by forcing renewables to replace lost nuclear capacity rather than fossil fuels.

Turkey's coal generation declined for the third consecutive year in 2021 due to high import costs, but overall carbon intensity of power has not significantly improved in 30 years. While non-hydro renewables doubled since 2017 and wind and solar reached a record 13.6% share of generation in 2021, a drought-induced decline in hydropower was largely offset by an increase in gas generation, which rose from 23% to 33% year-over-year.

In 2021, Turkey's non-hydro renewable generation overtook hydropower for the first time, with wind and solar reaching a record 44.6 TWh. While coal generation declined for three consecutive years between 2018 and 2021 due to high import costs, gas generation increased to compensate for drought-induced hydropower losses, pushing the fossil fuel share to 65% in 2021. Despite the growth in renewables, the increase in production (+58 TWh since 2011) failed to keep pace with the surge in power demand (+95 TWh), resulting in a carbon intensity of power that has not significantly improved in at least 30 years.

The report finds that most of the 21 analysed European power utilities are failing to align their strategies with IEA Net Zero benchmarks. Only 43% have coal phase-out plans aligned with the 2030 EU/OECD target, and 100% are expected to operate fossil gas plants in EU/OECD countries beyond 2035. While total wind and solar capacity is projected to quadruple by 2030, this falls short of the required six-fold growth, and only 10% of companies are on track to achieve that minimum. The report highlights a lack of transparency regarding fossil gas and warns against speculative 'hydrogen-ready' claims used to justify continued fossil fuel use.

The European Electricity Review 2022 methodology outlines how Ember aggregates electricity data for 32 countries. It uses Eurostat for historical data up to 2019 and primarily the ENTSO-E transparency platform for more recent monthly generation data, with specific national sources used to correct known inaccuracies in countries like Italy, Finland, and the Netherlands. Generation capacity is sourced from IRENA for renewables and nuclear, and Global Energy Monitor for coal and gas. Carbon intensity for the EU power sector is calculated using European Environment Agency and Eurostat data for 2000-2019, with 2020 and 2021 estimates based on standard emissions factors for hard coal, lignite, fossil gas, and other fossil fuels.

The document analyzes the EU's trajectory toward a coal phase-out by 2030. While overall planned coal generation in the EU is expected to drop by 83% from 2015 to 2030, a small group of countries—Poland, Czechia, and Bulgaria—will remain the primary polluters, accounting for over 95% of the EU's planned coal electricity generation in 2030. The report highlights the disparity between these 'laggards' and the rest of the EU-27, noting that while most countries are aligning with 1.5C goals, Poland, Czechia, and Bulgaria have set phase-out dates far beyond 2030.

Uttar Pradesh is lagging behind other high-demand Indian states in renewable energy adoption, with only 30% of its 2022 capacity target achieved by October 2021. The state remains heavily dependent on coal, which accounts for approximately 90% of in-state generation, leaving it vulnerable to supply chain disruptions and high costs. IEEFA modelling suggests that if the state meets its 2030 target of 23.5GW of solar, solar power could meet the majority of future electricity demand growth. However, progress is hindered by the financial instability of state-owned distribution companies (Discoms), characterized by high AT&C losses and expensive long-term thermal power purchase agreements. The report recommends retiring old coal plants, expanding distributed solar, and utilizing open market platforms to improve the financial viability of the electricity sector.

The document analyzes the projected decline of coal-fired power in the EU by 2030, noting that while most member states are rapidly transitioning, Poland, Czechia, and Bulgaria will account for over 95% of the EU's planned coal electricity production by that year. It emphasizes that Germany's commitment to exit coal by 2030 isolates these three countries, whose combined coal reduction (42% from 2015 to 2030) lags significantly behind the 99% reduction seen in the other 27 EU nations.

The report finds that while the EU is rapidly reducing coal use, with planned generation falling by 83% between 2015 and 2030, three countries—Poland, the Czech Republic, and Bulgaria—will account for over 95% of the EU's remaining coal electricity by 2030. Germany's decision to exit coal by 2030 has accelerated this trend, leaving these three 'laggards' with significantly slower phase-out rates compared to the rest of the EU.

The EU is rapidly phasing out coal, with planned electricity generation from coal expected to fall by 83% between 2015 and 2030. However, Poland, Czechia, and Bulgaria are transitioning much more slowly, and are projected to be responsible for over 95% of the EU's planned coal-generated electricity in 2030.

The report finds that while the EU is rapidly reducing coal power, with planned production falling by 83% between 2015 and 2030, three countries—Poland, the Czech Republic, and Bulgaria—will account for over 95% of the EU's planned coal electricity generation by 2030. Germany's commitment to exit coal by 2030 has further isolated these three nations, which are phasing out coal significantly slower than the rest of the EU-27.

Ember expresses concern that the mainstream model of BECCS—adding carbon capture to biomass power plants—may not generate negative emissions because burning wood for power is increasingly viewed as a net emitter of CO2. The submission highlights the high risk associated with the Drax power station project, noting it could cost UK energy bill payers over £30bn while potentially failing to deliver negative emissions. Ember recommends that the UK’s Biomass Strategy 2022 prioritize scientific research and independent monitoring of supply chains over the premature promotion of BECCS projects.

A coalition of climate, environmental, and health NGOs calls on the European Commission to revise the draft CEEAG to ensure it supports the Paris Agreement and the European Green Deal. The authors argue for a strict 2030 deadline for coal plant closures, a transparent methodology for assessing plant profitability to avoid fossil fuel subsidies, and the removal of preferential treatment for fossil gas to prevent infrastructure lock-in.