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218 documents from Africa Policy Research Institute
The BRICS Currency Conundrum: Weighing the Pros and Cons of a Unified Monetary System
The paper examines the potential for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa to implement a single monetary unit to reduce reliance on the US dollar and enhance trade. Using the Optimal Currency Areas (OCA) framework, it identifies significant barriers, including non-synchronous economic cycles, lack of fiscal integration, and diverse political systems. While the move could shift global financial power away from the US and EU, the author warns that China's economic dominance and the varying needs of members like India and Russia create complex challenges. The paper recommends a phased approach to integration, focusing on institutional strengthening and risk mitigation.
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Document type: Research paper
BRICS und der globale Süden: Eine neue geopolitische Ära?
The paper examines the potential for a unified BRICS currency to enhance economic stability and challenge the dominance of the US dollar and euro, while highlighting significant risks stemming from economic divergence and political mistrust. Using the Optimal Currency Areas (OCA) framework, it argues that the lack of fiscal integration and synchronised business cycles among member states poses a major barrier to implementation. The author recommends a phased approach to integration and the strengthening of institutional frameworks to mitigate these risks.
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Document type: Research paper
BRICS configurations: representation of the majority world
The document examines the evolution of BRICS from a financial acronym to an intergovernmental group, focusing on its annual declarations. It finds that while BRICS successfully used the G20 to push for reforms in the IMF and World Bank following the 2007-8 financial crisis, there remains a significant gap between its high-level declarative statements and actual collective policy implementation.
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Document type: Research paper
International Law in the New World Order: A BRICS Paradigm Shift Towards Post-Internationalism and Heterarchy
The document argues that the BRICS bloc is challenging the Western-dominated unipolar world order by promoting multilateralism and 'soft power' to enhance the influence of the Global South. Using the framework of postinternationalism and heterarchy, the author analyzes how BRICS states leverage international institutions to reposition themselves as moral and responsible global actors. A primary example provided is South Africa's case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which the author describes as a strategic use of international law to test the unipolar system and extend South Africa's legitimacy beyond the African continent. However, the paper also notes inconsistencies within the bloc, specifically citing the silence of BRICS members regarding the Russia-Ukraine war as evidence that national interests often override stated principles of international law.
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Document type: Research paper
Die Repräsentation der Mehrheitswelt durch die BRICS-Konfiguration
The paper examines the evolution of BRICS from a financial acronym to an intergovernmental configuration, focusing on its first ten annual declarations. It argues that while BRICS successfully projects a vision of representing the 'majority world' and achieved early wins in reforming global financial institutions via the G20, there remains a significant lack of clarity regarding collective policy coordination and the actual implementation of its broader declarative statements.
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Document type: Research paper
A Battery Industry in the Central African Copperbelt: Regional and Geopolitical Dimensions
The DRC and Zambia are attempting to transition from extractive economies to value-added battery producers to support the global green transition. While they possess critical reserves of cobalt and copper, their efforts are complicated by a history of privatization, problematic governance, and a geopolitical tug-of-war between the USA and China. To succeed, both nations must expand local processing capacity and improve infrastructure, such as the Lobito Corridor, while managing the social and environmental impacts of mining.
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Document type: Research paper
Industrialisation in Africa: Leading Countries and Reasons for Their Success
The document examines industrialisation trends in Africa, identifying South Africa, Morocco, and Egypt as leaders while highlighting the challenges of commodity dependence and premature deindustrialisation. It analyzes specific success stories in Ethiopia's textiles, Rwanda's ICT, and Ghana's automotive sectors, and argues for structuralist policies and increased EU support for green industries and climate finance to accelerate the transition.
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Document type: Research paper
Navigating Climate Action: Assessing the Economic Impacts and Trade-offs of a Shipping Carbon Tax for African States
The report uses a GTAP-E model to find that a USD 100/t carbon levy would generally reduce GDP and household incomes across Africa, increase global food prices, and reduce the supply of maritime services. It highlights that African importers already face disproportionately high freight rates, which a carbon tax would exacerbate. The authors recommend that the IMO implement a redistribution mechanism based on climate vulnerability and historical emissions, providing direct grants for out-of-sector projects like green hydrogen and resilient agriculture.
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Document type: Report
Solar photovoltaic manufacturing in Africa: opportunity or mirage
The document examines Africa's potential to enter the solar PV manufacturing value chain, highlighting its abundance of critical minerals like copper and tin and high solar irradiance. It identifies significant barriers, including China's dominance of over 80% of the global value chain, high capital requirements for polysilicon production, and a lack of domestic technological capacity. The authors argue that individual African countries lack the resources to compete and instead recommend a regionalized strategy to pool resources and achieve economies of scale.
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Document type: Research paper
Navigating Partnerships: Analysing EU-Africa Industrial Policy Relations
The paper examines the evolution of EU-Africa relations from the 1975 Lome Convention to the 2020 Comprehensive Strategy with Africa, highlighting a persistent gap between the African Union's goals for industrialisation and the EU's focus on trade and aid. It argues that the EU's preference for market-led growth and its interest in securing raw materials have led to the marginalisation of industrial policy, technology transfer, and skills development in their partnerships. Despite new initiatives like the Africa-Europe Alliance for Sustainable Investment and Jobs, the author notes that foreign direct investment remains concentrated in extractive sectors rather than manufacturing.
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Document type: Research paper
Lithium Mining and National Economic Development in Zimbabwe
The document examines Zimbabwe's position as Africa's largest holder of lithium reserves amidst a global surge in demand for critical raw materials for electric vehicle batteries. It argues that while lithium mining offers a path to upper-middle-income status by 2030, the country faces significant risks from corruption, resource leakage, and a lack of industrial capacity for local beneficiation. The paper highlights the dominance of Chinese investment and the challenges of artisanal mining conflicts. It recommends strengthening tax regimes, mandating technology transfer, and pursuing regional collaboration to move beyond the export of unprocessed ores.
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Document type: Policy brief
Prospects for development and integration of African battery value chains
The document analyzes the potential for African nations to move beyond the "pit to port" model of mineral extraction by building integrated battery mineral value chains. It highlights Africa's significant reserves of cobalt, manganese, graphite, and vanadium, and examines the macroeconomic shift from fossil fuel revenues to transition mineral revenues. The paper identifies Morocco as a leader in integrating automotive assembly with battery material production and discusses the potential for South Africa to act as a regional integrator. It concludes that while a continent-wide strategy is unlikely, sub-regional strategies and national policy instruments—such as strategic non-alignment and targeted industrial policies for e-mobility—can help African countries capture more value from their mineral endowments.
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Document type: Research paper
How can African states benefit from the EU Critical Raw Material Act and the UK Critical Minerals Strategy
The EU CRMA and UK CMS aim to reduce dependence on China and secure supplies for the green transition, but their domestic focus may hinder African industrialization. While the EU targets 10% domestic mining and 40% processing by 2030, its international partnerships are criticized as extractivist. The brief highlights a misalignment in 'criticality' definitions, where African states prioritize regional industrialization and specific minerals like gold or coal, which may conflict with Western climate goals or sanctions. It concludes that without a shift toward supporting in-country processing and reducing certification costs for local firms, these strategies will fail to create mutually beneficial partnerships.
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Document type: Policy brief
German-African industrial relations: insights and next steps
The research paper argues that German-African industrial relations are underperforming due to a skewed German perception of Africa as a crisis-ridden region rather than a diverse set of economic opportunities. It highlights the growth of several African economies and the potential of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), while noting that German business engagement remains low and government strategies are often uncoordinated and paternalistic. The authors recommend that Germany replace aid with trade and investment, particularly in green hydrogen, and that African governments increase transparency and infrastructure to attract foreign direct investment.
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Document type: Research paper
Chinas role in Africas critical minerals landscape: challenges and key opportunities
The document analyzes China's dominance in Africa's critical minerals landscape, highlighting its role as a primary investor and buyer. It argues that while Africa's reserves are vital for the global energy transition, the current model of exporting raw materials without local processing limits socioeconomic benefits and risks environmental degradation. The brief recommends that African governments pursue strategic partnerships, invest in research and development, and build energy infrastructure to move up the value chain, while urging international partners to support technology transfer and local capacity building.
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Document type: Policy brief
Geoeconomics of Decarbonization: Climate-Resilient Developmental Regionalism and the AfCFTA
The document analyzes the global race to secure critical minerals, detailing the subsidy-driven strategies of the US, EU, UK, and Canada, and the dominant market position of China in battery production. It argues that African nations can leverage their mineral wealth to drive sustainable structural transformation by adopting a 'climate-resilient developmental regionalism' framework under the AfCFTA, which integrates climate adaptation and mitigation with regional industrialization.
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Document type: Policy brief
A Sustainable Path for Methane Mitigation in Nigeria’s Oil and Gas Sector
The report highlights the critical role of methane mitigation in Nigeria's oil and gas sector, noting that methane has over 80 times the global warming potential of carbon dioxide over 20 years. It details Nigeria's commitment to the Global Methane Pledge and its specific target to reduce oil and gas methane emissions by 61% in its updated NDC. The document identifies key tools like the Nigerian Gas Flare Tracker and the prototype Satellite-based Methane Emission Tracker as essential for measurement and verification. However, it warns that inadequate curbing of gas flaring and new EU regulations on fossil fuel imports by 2030 pose significant risks to Nigeria's LNG exports and economic stability. The authors advocate for enhanced leak detection and repair (LDAR) technologies, robust regulatory enforcement, and international collaboration to meet the national goal of ending gas flaring by 2030.
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Document type: Report
Methane Mitigation and Reduction in Nigeria's Oil and Gas Sector
The document serves as a summary of the methane reduction landscape in Nigeria's oil and gas industry, drawing on a broader landscape mapping report to highlight policy and regulation frameworks aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Strategic Industrial Policy for Sustainable Development in Africa: The Case of Cement Manufacturing
The research paper examines the role of vertical industrial policies in Africa, contrasting them with horizontal policies and global value chain (GVC) theories. It highlights how Nigeria and Morocco successfully developed their cement sectors through targeted government interventions, while noting that replicating these specific tools in other sectors, such as sugar and tomato paste in Nigeria, has failed due to different raw material coordination needs.
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Document type: Research paper
Methane Mitigation and Reduction Mapping Report in Nigeria’s Oil and Gas Sector
The report analyzes methane emissions in Nigeria's oil and gas sector, noting that 73% of the estimated 439.8 kilotons of methane emissions come from gas production, processing, and distribution. While existing policies like the NUPRC Guide 0024 - 2022 align with the Global Methane Pledge, the report identifies gaps in regulatory enforcement, stakeholder coordination, and academic research. It estimates a funding requirement of US$1.5 billion between 2023 and 2030 to reduce emissions, with oil and gas majors expected to contribute US$300 million. The document advocates for a data-driven approach using satellite technology, such as the Satellite-based Methane Emission Tracking (SMET) platform, and calls for innovative financing through green bonds and public-private partnerships.
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Document type: Report