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The briefing highlights the socio-economic risks and opportunities for Africa amidst global decarbonisation, noting that while fossil fuel exports (40% of total) are threatened, the continent's mineral wealth can drive a just transition. It advocates for an 'African Green deal' to shift Africa from being a mere source of raw materials to an industrialised hub, mitigating climate-induced economic losses which reached US$38 billion in 2020.

Nigeria is highly vulnerable to climate change, facing risks from drought, flooding, and sea level rise that threaten food security and economic stability. While the government has established frameworks like the National Adaptation Plan, implementation at the local level is limited by poor funding, lack of skilled personnel, and a reliance on international finance. The paper advocates for Locally Led Adaptation (LLA) to ensure climate actions are inclusive and aligned with community needs.

The paper examines Ghana's climate vulnerabilities, noting that the northern savannah zones and rural agricultural populations are most at risk. While the government has established several policy frameworks, the author finds a significant imbalance in climate finance, with mitigation receiving 87.4% of funds compared to 3.4% for adaptation between 2011 and 2019. The document highlights that adaptation planning remains top-down, often ignoring local knowledge and failing to reach vulnerable groups, including women. It concludes that for adaptation to be sustainable, authority and finance must be delegated to local communities to address specific regional needs.

The paper examines Senegal's vulnerability to climate change, its existing national adaptation frameworks, and the systemic gaps that hinder effective local implementation. It highlights the disconnect between high-level policy design and the actual needs of local actors, advocating for a bottom-up approach to climate resilience.

The document examines how the war in Ukraine disrupted global supply chains, leading to a sharp increase in fertilizer prices across Africa. It notes that these price hikes, combined with high input costs for natural gas and coal, threaten crop yields and increase food prices. While short-term input subsidies are common, the brief advocates for industrialization and the utilization of Africa's natural gas, coal, and phosphate rock reserves to build domestic fertilizer production capacity.

The 2022 Angolan elections are characterized as a tight race between the ruling MPLA and UNITA, occurring against a backdrop of economic stagnation and public dissatisfaction. While the MPLA promises policy continuity, UNITA advocates for structural reforms and a transition of power. The analysis highlights significant concerns regarding the transparency of the electoral process, including partisan control of electoral institutions and flawed voter registration. Despite these challenges, the MPLA is expected to win due to its control of state resources, though the results may trigger protests. Internationally, Angola's role as an OPEC member and oil producer makes it a strategic energy alternative for Western markets amid the crisis caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The author argues that Africa-EU relations are characterized by a historical imbalance and a lack of mutual respect, which is exacerbated by the EU's shift toward a 'geopolitical commission' and the diversion of security resources to Ukraine. The document highlights how the replacement of the African Peace Facility (APF) with the European Peace Facility (EPF) allows the EU to bypass the African Union (AU) in security decisions, prompting African states to seek transactional 'Plan B' partnerships with other global powers like China and Russia. The author contends that African positions on the war in Ukraine are driven by pragmatism rather than Russian influence, and warns that failing to acknowledge this nuance risks further deteriorating the partnership.

The author argues that EU-Africa relations are characterized by a historical imbalance and a lack of mutual respect, which has been exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war. The document highlights how the EU's shift toward geopolitics and the creation of the European Peace Facility (EPF) may undermine the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) by bypassing the AU. It notes that African nations are adopting a pragmatic approach to geopolitical tensions, seeking diverse security partnerships with countries like China, Russia, and the USA to fill funding gaps and reduce dependence on the EU.

The document examines how the war in Ukraine is facilitating a geopolitical realignment in Africa, where countries are increasingly wary of Western 'coercive diplomacy' and 'paternalism'. It posits that China is capitalizing on this by aligning its diplomatic rhetoric with African desires for non-alignment and multipolarity. The author suggests that China's control over supply chains and its 'Global Security Initiative' provide tangible alternatives to Western partnerships, potentially eroding Western influence on the continent.

The document analyzes the varied diplomatic positions of African nations regarding the Ukraine war, noting a split between those condemning Russia and those maintaining neutrality to preserve bilateral ties. It argues that African states should move from being passive bystanders to proactive actors by mediating peace, filling resource gaps created by sanctions, diversifying commodity imports, and strengthening pan-African unity.

Russia has increased its presence in Africa through defense and security partnerships, positioning itself as an alternative to Western paternalism. However, the document argues that Russia lacks the financial capacity to compete with the U.S., EU, and China, as evidenced by its modest trade volume and the contrast with China's massive infrastructure investments. The war in Ukraine has further complicated this strategy by draining resources and increasing international sanctions.

The document examines Africa's position as a 'techno-geopolitical theatre' where major powers—including China, the US, and the EU—are competing to establish technological spheres of influence through infrastructure investments and policy frameworks. It warns that while these investments can drive digital transformation, they risk reducing Africa to a pawn in geopolitical struggles. The author highlights the danger of relying on non-neutral service providers and cautions African governments against using digital regulations for citizen surveillance and repression, urging instead a focus on securing digital interests and fostering innovation for a young population.

The document examines the role of Africa in the global AI supply chain and the risks posed by the dominance of foreign AI firms, particularly from China and the Global North. It highlights specific harms including predatory financial offers via digital IDs in South Africa, human rights violations through facial recognition in Uganda and South Africa, and exploitative 'click work' in Kenyan refugee camps. The brief reviews emerging national AI strategies in Mauritius, Egypt, and Rwanda, and the SMARTAfrica 'Blueprint on Artificial Intelligence for Africa'. It argues that while EU frameworks like the AI Act and GDPR provide some guidance on human rights, they often fail to address African socio-economic realities, such as the gender digital divide and infrastructure deficits. The author recommends that African governments focus on building sustainable local AI ecosystems, enhancing regional data cooperation via the AfCFTA, and ensuring the economic participation of local communities.

The document examines the impact of AI in Africa, highlighting risks such as predatory data use in South Africa, surveillance in Uganda, and the exploitation of 'click work' in Kenyan refugee camps. It reviews national AI strategies in Egypt, Mauritius, and Rwanda, and the SMARTAfrica Blueprint, while cautioning against the uncritical transfer of EU regulatory models like the GDPR. The author recommends that African governments focus on building sustainable local AI ecosystems, enhancing digital skills for women, and establishing regional cooperation to regulate multinational tech monopolies.

The document analyzes the intersection of the AfCFTA and climate action, arguing that while the agreement has minimal environmental references, it can be adjusted to eliminate barriers to environmental goods and services. It emphasizes the need for a phased decarbonization approach for fossil-fuel-dependent nations and suggests that instead of adding a new Environmental Protocol, existing continental climate strategies should be reinforced. The text calls for increased climate financing, technology transfer from partners like the EU and US, and the promotion of a circular economy to ensure that increased intra-African trade does not lead to higher greenhouse gas emissions.

The paper examines the rise of Eurobond issuance in Africa as governments seek alternatives to aid, noting that sovereign credit ratings from Moody’s, Fitch, and S&P are essential for market access. It finds that most African countries' ratings have deteriorated since their first assessment, leading to higher borrowing costs and prioritizing debt repayment over human rights and health during the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors criticize the 'big three' for their oligopolistic nature, unreliable methodologies, and limited physical presence in Africa, recommending increased regulation, accountability, and transparency in how Eurobond funds are utilized.

The document examines the rise of Eurobonds as a development financing tool in Africa and the corresponding increase in sovereign credit ratings assigned by Moody's, Fitch, and S&P. It finds that most African countries' ratings have deteriorated since their first assessment, increasing borrowing costs and sometimes forcing governments to prioritize debt repayment over public health and human rights during crises like COVID-19. The authors criticize the 'big three' for their oligopolistic nature, lack of local presence, and use of unsolicited ratings, recommending stricter regulation, better local knowledge, and transparent project-linked borrowing.

The document examines the rising debt accumulation in Africa since 2010, noting a shift from traditional creditors to emerging economies like China and private bondholders. It analyzes how the 2008 financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated vulnerabilities, and argues that existing relief initiatives like the DSSI and Common Framework are insufficient because they often exclude private creditors and lack binding legal frameworks. The authors advocate for a statutory Sovereign Debt Restructuring mechanism and the adoption of UN-led principles to ensure transparency and fairness.

The document examines the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Africa, highlighting a tension between the continent's role as a provider of raw materials and labour and its dependence on foreign AI technologies from the Global North and China. It identifies significant risks associated with AI adoption, including the misuse of biometric digital IDs in Namibia and South Africa, the deployment of facial recognition for surveillance in Uganda and South Africa, and the exploitation of vulnerable populations through 'click work' in Kenyan refugee camps. The author analyses emerging national AI strategies in Egypt, Mauritius, and Rwanda, as well as the SMARTAfrica Blueprint, noting that while these frameworks address infrastructure and talent, they often overlook the labour rights of gig workers and the specific impact of automation on women. The brief evaluates the potential for policy transfer from the EU, specifically the AI Act and GDPR, warning that such frameworks may not account for African socio-economic rights or the technical constraints of local start-ups. It concludes by recommending that African policymakers focus on building inclusive digital infrastructure, fostering regional cooperation for data sharing, and implementing beneficiation frameworks to ensure local communities profit from the data used to train AI systems.

The AfCFTA has the potential to generate USD 3.4 trillion in GDP and lift over 100 million people out of poverty by 2040, with primary gains expected in manufacturing and services. However, significant disparities in factor markets—including labour skills, technology adoption, and financial capacity—exist across the continent, with Eastern and Southern Africa generally possessing higher capacities than Central and Western Africa. The document highlights risks associated with heavy reliance on non-African financing, such as the EU-funded Africa Trade Observatory, and urges member states to leverage domestic capital markets and sovereign wealth funds. It further emphasizes that political stability and the empowerment of regional bodies are essential to protect private sector investment in cross-border infrastructure, which the World Bank estimates requires USD 47.6 billion annually.