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Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Leapfrogging Potential in Africa
This research paper examines the potential for artificial intelligence (AI) to enable technological leapfrogging in Africa. It highlights the economic opportunities, specific sector applications—particularly in tax administration and agriculture—and the critical infrastructure and policy requirements needed to realize these gains, including the AI 10 Billion Initiative.
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Document type: Research paper
Infrastructure Spending in Africa
This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes infrastructure spending and financing in Africa, highlighting a significant gap between current investment levels and the needs driven by rapid population growth. It details the dominance of public and development funding, the constraints imposed by rising sovereign debt, the modest role of private investment, and the declining trend in development finance disbursements.
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Document type: Report
Impact of the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging Scenario
This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the economic and social impacts of a 'Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging' scenario for Africa through 2050, comparing it against a 'Current Path' baseline.
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Document type: Research paper
The origins of Africa’s infrastructure deficit
This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines the historical drivers of Africa's infrastructure deficit, tracing it from colonial-era extractive designs through post-independence policy failures, macroeconomic crises, and recent trends in urban and railway investment.
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Document type: Research paper
Technological Leapfrogging and the Formalisation of Africa’s Informal Sector
This research paper examines how technological leapfrogging, specifically through digital ID systems and mobile payment platforms, can facilitate the incremental formalisation of Africa's large informal economy to increase productivity and domestic revenue mobilisation.
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Document type: Research paper
The Politics of Coherence
This executive summary from the Stockholm Environment Institute examines policy coherence between the Paris Agreement and Agenda 2030, drawing on research from nine countries. It argues that incoherence is driven by power asymmetries, vested interests, and the prioritization of economic growth over social and environmental goals, rather than simple coordination failures.
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Document type: Executive summary
The cost of delay: Africa’s energy transition is being decided elsewhere
A statement by Natural Justice arguing that African nations must accelerate their transition to sovereign renewable energy systems to avoid the economic instability and foreign control caused by global conflicts and fossil fuel dependency.
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Document type: Statement
Defining the concept of work
The document defines employment according to ILO standards and examines the 'working poor'—employed individuals living in extreme poverty. It highlights that in 2024, 6.9% of the global employed population lived on less than US$2.15 per day, with Africa experiencing higher rates. Specifically, 29.3% of Africa's employed population were working poor, with rates exceeding 70% in Madagascar and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
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Document type: Research paper
AFRICA EMPLOYMENT FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES
This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the role of social grants and large-scale employment schemes in Africa as tools to mitigate poverty and inequality in the face of limited economic absorption of the working-age population.
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Document type: Report
Why capital market development matters and where the focus should be
This report by FSD Africa argues that domestic capital market development is essential for African economies to mobilize long-term finance for climate adaptation, infrastructure, and demographic shifts, especially as bilateral aid and foreign direct investment decline. It suggests that while public equity markets are often prioritized, they are frequently impractical for smaller or frontier markets due to high costs and information asymmetries. Instead, the report advocates for a focus on strengthening the savings base through pension reforms and macro-financial stability, developing corporate bond markets, and utilizing hybrid public-private structures, guarantees, and pooled investment vehicles to channel institutional capital into infrastructure, housing, and MSMEs.
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Document type: Report
India and Africa: bridging the gap between words and deeds
This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the relationship between India and Africa, arguing that while India possesses significant comparative advantages based on historical ties and shared developmental goals, there is a persistent gap between its strategic rhetoric and material outcomes. The author identifies structural constraints—including limited fiscal headroom, bureaucratic inefficiencies, and reputational risks—that have caused India to lag behind other global powers like China. The report recommends a coherent Africa strategy focused on low-cost, high-impact initiatives in health, education, and digital finance, utilizing 'anchor states' such as South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, and Egypt to scale interventions.
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Document type: Report
Security, Sovereignty and the Collapse of Multilateralism in the Sahel
This briefing by the South African Institute of International Affairs examines the collapse of multilateralism in the Sahel, focusing on how military coups in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have led to the formation of the Alliance des États du Sahel (AES) and a strategic pivot away from Western-led institutions toward partners like Russia and China.
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Document type: Briefing
Ember Research Spotlight: satellite observations reveal coal super-emitters, but monitoring gaps persist
This report by Ember examines the effectiveness of satellite monitoring in detecting methane emissions from global hard coal mines, noting a significant gap between theoretical detectability and actual observations.
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Document type: Report
Global CMM emissions remain steady despite rising coal production
An Ember report finds that global coal mine methane (CMM) emissions remained broadly steady between 2021 and 2023, despite an 8% increase in global coal production. The report highlights significant discrepancies between official UNFCCC-reported data and independent estimates, noting that six of the nine largest emitters failed to submit official 2023 CMM data.
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Document type: Report
Global Coal Mine Methane Review 2026
The Global Coal Mine Methane Review 2026 reports that coal mine methane (CMM) emissions have remained steady at approximately 35 million tonnes despite rising coal production since the 2021 Global Methane Pledge. The report highlights a critical lack of transparency, estimating that 89% of emissions were unreported to the UNFCCC in 2023, and that 87% of global coal production relies on generic emission factors rather than direct measurements. While satellite monitoring is increasing, it currently captures emissions from only 10% of global hard coal production. The report concludes that existing technologies could reduce CMM emissions by 54-63% by 2030, with some measures available at no net cost, and that such reductions are affordable relative to industry profits.
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Document type: Report
Electricity demand and supply trends
This report by Ember analyzes global electricity demand and supply trends in 2025 and over the preceding two decades. It details the growth of low-carbon sources, specifically solar and wind, and the relative decline of fossil fuels, while noting the impact of weather and policy on national energy mixes.
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Document type: Report
Agriculture
This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the historical structural challenges of African agriculture and models an 'Agriculture scenario' to demonstrate how a transition toward high-productivity, technology-driven farming could reduce food insecurity and poverty by 2043.
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Document type: Report
Conclusion: Aiming at food security and sustainable economic growth
This research paper conclusion argues that African nations must prioritize domestic food security, smallholder farming, and sustainable practices over international exports to drive economic growth and reduce poverty. It emphasizes the role of AgTech, irrigation, and political leadership in overcoming systemic barriers such as credit scarcity and climate change risks.
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Document type: Research paper
Discrimination in the Family
This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines gender discrimination within the family sphere in Africa, focusing on child marriage, the unequal distribution of unpaid care and domestic work, and disparities in divorce and inheritance rights.
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Document type: Report
Africa’s educational funnel in context
This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the 'educational funnel' in Africa, detailing the significant attrition rates from primary through tertiary education. It highlights a severe educational crisis in sub-Saharan Africa compared to North Africa and other global regions, noting that the region is forecast to miss several Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 4 targets by 2030.
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Document type: Research paper