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The Council on Strategic Risks outlines a strategic framework for the next US administration's nuclear posture, emphasizing the completion of current modernization plans, the preservation of international norms against nuclear testing and use, and the avoidance of provocative posture changes. It warns against 'entanglement' between conventional and nuclear systems and recommends maintaining the 'fundamental purpose' declaratory policy. The report specifically advises against rebuilding nuclear sea-launched cruise missiles (SLCM-N) and expanding the Sentinel ICBM program beyond its current 400-missile target.

The document argues that the BRICS bloc is challenging the Western-dominated unipolar world order by promoting multilateralism and 'soft power' to enhance the influence of the Global South. Using the framework of postinternationalism and heterarchy, the author analyzes how BRICS states leverage international institutions to reposition themselves as moral and responsible global actors. A primary example provided is South Africa's case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which the author describes as a strategic use of international law to test the unipolar system and extend South Africa's legitimacy beyond the African continent. However, the paper also notes inconsistencies within the bloc, specifically citing the silence of BRICS members regarding the Russia-Ukraine war as evidence that national interests often override stated principles of international law.

The document identifies a Russian propaganda campaign that exploited the aftermath of hurricanes Milton and Helene to foster domestic discontent in the US. Russian state-affiliated outlets, including RT and Sputnik, amplified narratives claiming the Biden administration diverted disaster relief funds to Ukraine and migrants. The analysis highlights a strategy of amplifying existing divisive US domestic discourse and the use of AI-generated imagery to portray devastation. The report notes that these campaigns spread largely unchecked on social media platforms, particularly X, to erode trust in democratic institutions and reduce support for Ukraine.

The document analyzes how conspiracy groups and extremist actors exploited the aftermath of Hurricane Helene to spread falsehoods about FEMA, target public officials with antisemitic abuse, and incite violence. It highlights the convergence of climate denialism, election conspiracies, and hate speech, while criticizing the failure of X's moderation and Community Notes to curb the spread of harmful content.

The BRICS group is approaching a critical transition point where non-fossil power capacity is expected to eclipse fossil fuels by the end of 2024. While the bloc possesses a vast pipeline of wind and solar projects—enough to potentially triple renewable capacity by 2030—nearly all members continue to develop new coal, oil, or gas plants. China dominates the group's transition, leading in both renewable additions and the construction of new coal capacity. Other members show divergent paths: Brazil and Ethiopia are heavily hydropower-reliant, while the UAE, Iran, and Russia remain deeply dependent on oil and gas, though the UAE is rapidly diversifying via nuclear and solar power.

The briefing examines the expansion of LNG infrastructure in Latin America and the Caribbean, highlighting significant planned investments in Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil. It argues that these projects risk becoming stranded assets and conflict with global climate goals to limit warming to 1.5°C, suggesting that the region should instead prioritize its abundant renewable energy resources.

The document details a conference focused on the marginalization of Africa within the global economic system, specifically regarding the legacy of structural adjustment and the current lack of representative governance in international financial institutions. It identifies critical barriers to African development, including inflated risk premiums that cost the continent over $74 billion annually and the failure of the Global North to deliver over $1 trillion in promised climate financing. The report proposes a tiered reform agenda: short-term priorities include debt cancellation and increased access to Special Drawing Rights; medium-term goals focus on improving credit ratings through better data and combating illicit financial flows; and long-term goals aim for greater representation in the IMF and World Bank. Additionally, it explores the potential for Africa to leverage its natural capital and critical minerals for the energy transition, while cautioning against new dependencies on China as the world shifts toward a multipolar order.

The EU CRMA and UK CMS aim to reduce dependence on China and secure supplies for the green transition, but their domestic focus may hinder African industrialization. While the EU targets 10% domestic mining and 40% processing by 2030, its international partnerships are criticized as extractivist. The brief highlights a misalignment in 'criticality' definitions, where African states prioritize regional industrialization and specific minerals like gold or coal, which may conflict with Western climate goals or sanctions. It concludes that without a shift toward supporting in-country processing and reducing certification costs for local firms, these strategies will fail to create mutually beneficial partnerships.

The document examines the systemic under-supply of funding for global public goods (GPGs), such as climate mitigation and pandemic preparedness, relative to the trillions of dollars required. It analyzes current G20 initiatives and the roles of the IMF and World Bank, while discussing a proposal from the Indian Council for Research in International Economic Relations (ICRIER) to create a consolidated GPG bank. The author provides recommendations for the South African G20 presidency to lead on consolidating funding windows, establishing equitable governance, and exploring global taxes to bridge the financing gap.

The policy brief examines the drivers of food insecurity in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), highlighting a 'ratchet effect' where domestic food prices remain high even as global prices fall. It attributes recent price spikes to agribusiness profiteering and financial speculation rather than supply shortages. To combat this, the author proposes the establishment of public buffer stocks, countercyclical interventions in commodity futures markets, stricter financial regulation of global commodity exchanges, and capital flow management to reduce currency volatility. The document specifically suggests that the South African G20 presidency could lead an expert review with the FAO and UNCTAD to stabilise global food prices.

The report identifies the intersection of food insecurity and climate change as a critical threat to US national security, citing risks such as political instability, the weaponization of food by adversaries, and geopolitical competition over agricultural technology and fish stocks. It highlights gaps in the US policy landscape, including institutional silos and underfunding of agricultural R&D. To address these, the authors propose 'The Feeding Resilience Plan,' which recommends a new Food Security Executive Order, a standing National Security Council process, expanded forecasting via FEWSNET, increased investment in climate-resilient agricultural innovation, and diplomatic engagement to oppose food weaponization and cooperate with partners and competitors like China.

The report examines how fossil fuels correlate with inter-state wars, militarism, and internal violence, while advocating for a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty to manage a just transition to renewable energy. It highlights the 'peacetime-wartime continuum' of violence, noting that fossil fuel revenues often fund conflicts and that extraction sites frequently experience human rights abuses and gender-based violence. The document calls for a treaty based on non-proliferation, a fair phase-out, and a global just transition to prevent the replication of colonial extractivist patterns in the renewable energy sector.

The report identifies several areas for reform in ISDS compensation, including the definition of compensable loss, the treatment of future profits, and the use of valuation techniques. It suggests that states can limit tribunal discretion by specifying protected interests, capping compensation at the amount invested, or excluding speculative income-based valuation methods like discounted cash flow (DCF). Additionally, it proposes incorporating balancing factors—such as the public interest or the respondent state's GDP—and reforming evidentiary processes to reduce bias from party-appointed experts. The report concludes that these reforms can be implemented through national model treaties, bilateral agreements, or multilateral forums like UNCITRAL Working Group III.

The document examines the diplomatic, military, and economic ties between Egypt and Russia over the last decade, highlighting a shared preference for authoritarian stability and a mutual desire to balance Western influence. While cooperation has expanded in arms procurement and nuclear energy, the author contends the relationship remains transactional and flexible, as Egypt employs a strategy of diplomatic hedging to maintain ties with both Moscow and the West.

The Sahel region is experiencing a major geopolitical shift as Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) and severed ties with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). This move reflects deep-seated anti-French and anti-EU sentiment, driven by perceptions of neo-colonialism and a focus on security and migration over socio-economic development. As the EU's influence wanes, Russia has expanded its presence through military cooperation and strategic economic interests, including potential control over Niger's uranium. The author argues that the EU and ECOWAS must move away from punitive sanctions and colonial-era approaches toward equal partnerships and dialogue to maintain stability and influence in the region.

The document examines how the competition between the US, China, and Russia affects African states, noting a shift toward non-alignment and the diversification of international relations to avoid becoming geopolitical pawns. It argues that African agency can be strengthened by empowering the African Union (AU), leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and demanding partnerships based on mutual benefit rather than great-power rivalry. The Lobito Corridor is cited as a model where competing interests can coexist to provide tangible regional benefits.

The report analyzes 450 votes and 5,850 voting decisions by African states at the UN Human Rights Council (HRC) between 2006 and 2022. It finds that the African Group generally opposes or is unwilling to defend civil and political rights, particularly regarding sexual orientation and gender identity (SOGI) and freedom of expression. The group frequently protects African states from international scrutiny through country-specific resolutions while remaining inconsistent or indifferent toward human rights violations in non-African countries. Despite a general decline in the domestic freedom scores of its members, the group's HRC voting patterns show a slight shift toward a more human rights-friendly direction after 2010, though it remains largely obstructive toward intrusive mandates for African nations.

The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is a regulatory tool designed to prevent 'carbon leakage' by applying a carbon price to specific imported goods, matching the price paid by EU producers under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). The mechanism covers cement, iron and steel, aluminium, fertilisers, electricity, and hydrogen. It involves a transitional monitoring period starting in October 2023, followed by a definitive phase-in in 2026. Importers must purchase and surrender non-tradeable certificates based on the embedded emissions of their goods. The document highlights the necessity of phasing out free ETS allowances to ensure the CBAM's effectiveness and discusses the potential for reinvesting CBAM revenues into climate mitigation in developing economies.

Following the 2024 elections, the African National Congress (ANC) lost its majority, leading to the formation of a 'government of national unity' (GNU) comprising 10 parties, including the Democratic Alliance (DA). While the ANC retains key portfolios like the presidency and foreign affairs, the coalition faces significant internal ideological tensions regarding economic policy and international relations, particularly concerning BRICS, Russia, and Israel. The document highlights a critical disconnect between South Africa's economic reliance on the EU and its political leanings toward the West's adversaries, suggesting that foreign policy will be the primary test of the coalition's stability.

The World Association for Christian Communication (WACC) praises players of the French men's national football team, including Kylian Mbappé and Jules Koundé, for speaking out against the Rassemblement National during the July 2024 elections. The statement argues that such actions are essential for protecting democracy and advancing social and climate justice, contrasting this activism with the efforts of governing bodies like FIFA, UEFA, and CONMEBOL to 'depoliticize' the sport.