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Fresh carnations or all thorn, no rose? Non-violent campaigns and transitions in autocracies
The authors argue that non-violent direct action is more effective at undermining autocracies and significantly more likely to lead to democratic transitions than violent conflict. Using a multinomial logit model for the period 1900-2004, the study finds that non-violent campaigns substantially increase the probability of democratization, particularly when the state has a high proportion of democratic neighbors. Conversely, violent direct action is less effective at destabilizing regimes overall and makes transitions to new autocracies relatively more likely. The research suggests that non-violence promotes power dispersion and elite defection, whereas violence tends to centralize power and justify further repression.
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Document type: Research paper
Middle East Report
The document examines the complex geopolitical landscape of the Middle East through a series of expert perspectives. Key themes include the failure of Western 'exceptionalism' in diplomacy, the systemic human rights abuses in countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and the critical role of water scarcity as a driver of intra-state conflict. It provides detailed analysis of the 'bottom-up' stabilization efforts in Iraq via local ceasefires, the strategic threat of Iranian nuclear proliferation, and the use of public diplomacy by non-state actors like Hizbollah. Additionally, it addresses the stalled peace process between Israel and Palestine and the specific challenges of the Cyprus division.
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Document type: Report
Security Force Assistance to Fragile States: A Framework of Analysis
The authors examine the rise of Security Force Assistance (SFA)—the training and equipping of foreign armed forces—as a preferred alternative to large-scale combat deployments and expensive security sector reform. They argue that in fragile states, SFA often fails because providers misread local political dynamics, where ruling elites may manipulate security fragmentation for their own survival. The paper critiques the standard principal-agent theory of SFA, suggesting it lacks the nuance to account for the heterogeneity of programs and the lack of cohesiveness among multiple providers and recipients. Through various case studies, the authors highlight unintended consequences, such as the creation of elite units that serve as instruments for regime protection rather than national security.
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Document type: Research paper
Microsoft Word - Austria country report.doc
The report details Austria's limited historical and economic ties with Africa, noting that while North Africa maintains stronger diplomatic relations, trade and development assistance are focused on specific priority countries in East and Southern Africa. It highlights South Africa as Austria's primary African trading partner and discusses Austria's commitments to EU-Africa strategies during its 2006 EU Council presidency.
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Document type: Report
Microsoft Word - Italy country report.doc
The document outlines Italy's strategic focus on the Horn of Africa, driven by colonial history and security concerns, and its role in regional peace processes. It details Italy's development aid trends, noting a decline in real terms despite government commitments, and examines Italy's trade and investment ties across Africa, particularly with Tunisia, Libya, and South Africa.
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Document type: Report
policy-briefing-148-90af24c361bd9710.pdf
This policy brief by the South African Institute of International Affairs examines the gap between the African Union's (AU) normative commitments to democracy and human rights and the actual foreign policies of its member states. The author argues that strong sovereignty norms and a state-centric approach have hindered the domestication of human rights, leading to a state of 'stasis' or reversal in several countries. The brief recommends that the AU embrace global partnerships with civil society and that pivotal states like South Africa rejuvenate human rights as a core pillar of their external engagements to ensure continental stability.
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Document type: Policy brief
Releasing the Pressure
The report examines the relationship between water productivity, water flows, and ecosystem services, emphasizing that narrow agricultural efficiency often creates trade-offs with broader landscape health. It advocates for an integrated approach to water resource management that values regulating and supporting services alongside provisioning ones.
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Document type: Report
Transformational Climate Finance: An Exploration of Low-Carbon Energy
The paper identifies key factors and recommendations for achieving 'transformational' change in low-carbon energy, defined by large magnitude impact, non-linear growth, and long-term sustainability. Through the analysis of 20 case studies, the authors categorize experiences into transformational, potentially transformational, and missed opportunities, highlighting the roles of regulatory frameworks, financial incentives, and national ownership.
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Document type: Research paper
Mobilizing Climate Investment
The report argues that limiting global temperature rise to 2°C requires an estimated $531 billion per year of additional investment in energy supply and demand technologies in developing countries by 2050. To achieve this, the authors propose 'readiness' activities—small-scale, long-term public investments in enabling environments—to leverage private sector capital. Key findings emphasize that international support is most effective when it is demand-driven, integrated into national institutions, and targeted at specific investment barriers. The report provides a framework for these activities and offers recommendations for the Green Climate Fund to support a paradigm shift toward low-emission development.
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Document type: Report
Toward Paris Alignment: How the Multilateral Development Banks Can Better Support the Paris Agreement
The document advocates for a shift in how Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) approach climate action, moving beyond simply maximizing climate finance volumes to ensuring their entire investment portfolios align with the Paris Agreement. It emphasizes the need for MDBs to stop supporting CO2-emitting energy sources, mainstream climate risks for a world 3-4°C warmer, and support the strengthening of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
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Document type: Report
A Community Action Toolkit: A Roadmap for Using Environmental Rights to Fight Pollution
The toolkit is designed to empower marginalized communities, particularly in middle- and low-income countries, to fight pollution by leveraging environmental rights. It provides eight modules containing research indicators, worksheets, and templates to help users conduct policy research, collect pollution data, and build advocacy campaigns. Developed through the STRIPE project, the toolkit's methodology is based on five years of experience in Indonesia, Thailand, Mongolia, Jamaica, Morocco, and Tunisia. The document argues that strengthening these rights is essential for pollution accountability and the realization of the right to a healthy environment.
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Document type: Guide
TOP 10 ENERGY SAVING CHALLENGE CHAMPIONS
The document identifies bottling partners across the Coca-Cola system that have implemented ten energy-efficiency measures. These measures are designed to help the company achieve up to 70 percent of its carbon reduction target while providing financial returns and environmental benefits. The text provides a chronological list of plants that completed the challenge between August 2012 and May 2018.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Umlibo
The document presents the 'Umlibo' tapestry, a 6m x 2m artwork created by 43 artists in Hamburg, Eastern Cape, South Africa. Through personal narratives, it details how climate change manifests as unseasonal rainfall, soil erosion, and declining marine stocks, while highlighting the role of sustainable livelihoods—such as food gardens and art—in building community resilience.
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Document type: Report