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The ATT Monitor 2017 report finds that while the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) has seen steady universalization, progress in public reporting is disappointing in both quantity and quality. Analysis of 2015 Annual Reports reveals significant discrepancies between reported exports and imports, with only 6% of analyzed small arms and light weapons (SALW) transactions being exactly mirrored. The report highlights a critical gap between reported implementation measures in Initial Reports and actual practice on the ground. It also introduces the 'Risk Watch' tool, which uses a typology of individual, group, institutional, and conflict violence to identify contexts where arms transfers may fuel human rights abuses.

The report argues that for transitional justice to be effective in South Sudan, the African Union must move beyond the mere establishment of a hybrid court to support a coordinated, victim-centred strategy. This includes the Commission for Truth, Reconciliation and Healing (CTRH) and the Compensation and Reparation Authority (CRA), alongside traditional reconciliation mechanisms. The authors emphasize that security, psychosocial support, and the inclusion of civil society and the diaspora are essential preconditions for success. Drawing on lessons from other African nations, the report highlights the limitations of international trials and the critical importance of tangible reparations and local ownership to ensure the non-recurrence of violence.

The paper analyzes the Foreign Affairs and National Security Policy and Strategy (FANSPS) of Ethiopia, which prioritizes domestic security and development over external concerns. While this approach has supported economic growth and regional mediation roles, the author argues it has led to strategic vulnerabilities, including a failure to secure sea access and an underestimation of threats from Eritrea and Egypt. The document recommends a more proactive, opportunity-based diplomatic approach to enhance regional trade and security.

The research examines 143 African ethnic groups to determine if customary institutions influence communal violence. It finds that groups with more formalized customary institutions—such as courts, legislatures, and chiefs—are significantly less likely to be involved in both inter-communal and intra-communal conflicts. The authors argue these institutions facilitate credible bargaining and mediation. In contrast, the study finds only weak and non-robust evidence that the inclusiveness or 'democratic' nature of these institutions reduces conflict.

The document assesses the financial links between natural resource extraction and violent extremism in Africa, finding that while the LRA relies heavily on ivory and the Janjaweed on gold, al-Shabaab primarily funds itself through charcoal taxation, and Boko Haram derives little to no revenue from resource extraction.

The report analyzes Ethiopia's trajectory toward lower-middle-income status, highlighting significant progress in GDP growth and health indicators alongside persistent challenges in food security, education quality, and political inclusion. It uses scenario modeling to demonstrate that integrated investments in agriculture, human capital, and governance are essential to harness a looming demographic dividend and avoid instability driven by a large youth bulge.

The study finds that while agricultural leasing is a preferred asset financing method in developed markets, it remains nascent in sub-Saharan Africa due to systemic market failures. Key barriers include high down payment requirements (20-40%), a lack of secondary markets for used equipment, and informational asymmetries that lead financial service providers to perceive agriculture as high-risk. Demand is limited by the predominance of smallholder subsistence farmers and low financial literacy. The report identifies Ghana, Kenya, and Zambia as high-potential markets and recommends targeted technical assistance for banks, awareness campaigns for farmers, and the creation of risk-sharing funds to reduce down payment barriers.

The report argues that the Agreement for the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (ARCISS) is failing due to a lack of government political will, leading to increased ethnic violence and insecurity. It critiques the uncoordinated efforts of international and African mediators, which have allowed the South Sudanese government to manipulate external actors. The authors suggest that the AU can improve peace prospects by insisting on a ceasefire as a precondition for the national dialogue, ensuring the dialogue is neutral and inclusive, and coordinating a unified strategic approach between Northern and Southern external partners.

The report examines the distinct challenges of financial market development in fragility-affected states in Africa (FASA), where financial exclusion is significantly higher than in non-fragile sub-Saharan African countries. It advocates for a 'market systems' or 'M4P' approach based on facilitation and adaptive management rather than direct implementation. Key priorities identified include the development of functional identification solutions, risk-based tiered KYC regulations, and the scaling of promising practices such as Islamic finance, refugee/IDP finance, and impact investing. The document emphasizes that systemic change in these volatile contexts requires long-term commitment, a high tolerance for risk, and a deep understanding of local political economy and conflict dynamics.

The document examines the African Union's (AU) efforts to integrate youth into democratic governance, highlighting the African Governance Architecture-Youth Engagement Strategy (AGA-YES) and the African Youth Charter. It argues that despite these frameworks, young people remain largely alienated and marginalised, facing significant barriers such as unemployment and restrictive legislation. The brief details findings from 2016 regional consultations, noting that youth often lack knowledge of the AU human rights system and face systemic hurdles like prohibitive age requirements for political office. It recommends that member states domesticate AU shared values, repeal discriminatory laws, and move beyond tokenistic engagement to harness the potential of Africa's youth demographic.

The paper analyzes the relationship between China and Ethiopia, highlighting how Ethiopia's 'developmental state' model and strategic location in the Horn of Africa make it a key partner for China. It details Chinese investments in infrastructure, energy, and telecommunications, while noting that China's political influence is constrained by Ethiopia's strong national pride and centralized power structures. The document also explores China's increasing role in regional stability through the African Union and IGAD.

The document examines the gap between Africa's formal legal commitments to freedom of movement and the actual practice of migration governance. While the African Union and various Regional Economic Communities have established frameworks to promote labour mobility and economic integration, implementation remains inconsistent. West Africa is highlighted as the most advanced model, whereas Southern Africa is noted for a securitised approach to migration. The brief argues that aligning regional policies and improving communication on the net benefits of migration are essential for unlocking the continent's development potential.

The document analyzes South Africa's transition from a leading 'norm entrepreneur' in Africa during the Mandela and Mbeki eras to a state currently facing a 'crisis of expectations' under President Jacob Zuma. While South Africa historically exported its model of democratic transition through mediation in Burundi and the DRC and the reform of continental institutions like the AU and SADC, it is now criticized for failing to oppose democratic reversals and human rights abuses. The brief highlights contradictions in South Africa's current approach, including its controversial withdrawal from the International Criminal Court and its reluctance to vote on country-specific human rights issues in the UN. It recommends that South Africa leverage its soft power and financial influence within the AU and SADC to regain its status as a champion of peace and governance.

The document analyzes Kenya's foreign policy across four presidencies, noting a historical tendency to 'punch below its weight' despite economic strength. It highlights a significant shift in 2011 with the military incursion into Somalia and the subsequent pan-African focus under Uhuru Kenyatta. The paper examines Kenya's role in regional integration through the EAC and LAPSSET project, its complex relations with South Africa, and the introduction of a new Foreign Policy Framework based on five pillars of diplomacy.

The document argues that while South Africa has been instrumental in the DRC's peace processes and initial state-building, its current approach is failing to ensure long-term institutional stability. The author contends that South Africa's 'quiet diplomacy' and reluctance to demand adherence to democratic values and the rule of law have allowed the DRC's political transition to stall, specifically regarding the postponement of presidential elections.

The document critiques the ESIA for the 250km Lamu-Garissa road, highlighting risks to the critically endangered Hirola antelope and the Tana River ecosystem. It argues that the preferred route (Alternative I-1) lacks species-specific wildlife crossing data and fails to allocate budget for wildlife protection in its management plan. Additionally, the authors identify failures in stormwater management planning, a lack of impact analysis for the extraction of approximately 1.375 million cubic meters of construction materials, and procedural violations of Kenyan law regarding public participation and gazette notices.

The report estimates that ending world hunger by 2030 will require an average of USD 11 billion in additional annual public spending, with USD 4 billion provided by donors and USD 7 billion by poor countries. This investment is projected to trigger an additional USD 5 billion in annual private investment. The analysis focuses on three intervention categories: social safety nets, farm support, and rural development. Using a sample of seven African countries to extrapolate global costs, the report identifies that Africa, particularly Central and South East Africa, will require the highest level of support, with some countries depending on donors for over 90 per cent of their budgets.

The document analyzes the state of democracy in Africa, arguing that while electoral democracy has increased since 1989, it is often constrained by neopatrimonialism and a lack of governance capacity. It explores the 'sequencing debate' regarding whether democracy precedes or follows economic development, noting that while authoritarian models have sometimes delivered rapid growth, long-term human development is robustly linked to high-quality electoral democracy. Using the International Futures (IFs) system, the author forecasts that a 'Fourth Wave' of democracy could significantly increase Africa's GDP and reduce extreme poverty by 2070 compared to an 'Authoritarian Regress' scenario.

The report argues that President Yoweri Museveni uses Uganda's role as a regional security provider to deflect international criticism of his domestic democratic decay. It details the use of patronage and repression to maintain power, the personalized nature of Ugandan foreign policy, and the strategic use of the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) in Somalia, South Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The document analyzes China's transition from a non-interference policy to a more active role in African peace and security, driven by the need to protect its economic interests and a desire to establish itself as a 'responsible great power'. It contrasts Chinese and Western interpretations of human rights and peacebuilding, noting China's preference for socio-economic rights and state-led stability. While China has increased its UN peacekeeping contributions and partnered with the African Union, the report notes a contradiction in its role as a major arms supplier to the continent.