Search Climate Insights Directory

The document explores the multifaceted meaning of 'bankability' in climate finance, arguing that it extends beyond traditional financial returns to include socioeconomic and environmental impacts. It provides lessons from CDKN's work in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, highlighting how bankability requirements differ between public and private funders and between mitigation and adaptation projects. The paper concludes with a guiding checklist for project developers to improve the success rate of proposals submitted to multilateral funds like the Green Climate Fund (GCF).

The report argues that the UN Security Council has historically prioritised reactive conflict management and peacekeeping over prevention. It identifies significant hurdles to operationalising prevention, including a lack of unified definitions, budgetary discrepancies, and organisational fragmentation. The authors recommend establishing concrete implementation strategies, improving coordination between UN organs and the African Union, and shifting toward structural prevention that addresses the root causes of conflict.

The document analyzes the Mombasa-Nairobi Standard Gauge Railway (SGR), a US$3.8 billion project financed largely by China. It argues that most controversies surrounding the project—including corruption, land disputes, and labor tensions—stem from Kenya's neo-patrimonial political culture and governance failures rather than Chinese predatory behavior. While the SGR has provided local employment and skills training, the authors highlight concerns over its economic viability, the lack of transparent bidding, and the environmental impact on wildlife corridors in Tsavo National Park.

The paper examines Tanzania's strategic potential as a maritime hub, focusing on the Dar es Salaam Port and the Central and Dar es Salaam corridors. It highlights significant infrastructure deficits, particularly in the rail sector, and evaluates the role of public-private partnerships (PPPs) and foreign direct investment (FDI) in bridging the finance gap. The author argues that while port upgrades are progressing, the dilapidated state of railways undermines regional competitiveness. The document concludes with recommendations to prioritise the repair of existing narrow-gauge railways, improve PPP management, and implement targeted strategies to ensure that infrastructure investments translate into local skills transfer and employment.

The document examines the DRC's energy crisis, characterized by an 11% electricity access rate and a heavy reliance on traditional biomass. It analyzes the complexities of the Grand Inga hydropower project, including financial hurdles, governance failures within the state utility SNEL, and socio-environmental concerns. The author argues for a 'two-track strategy' that combines large-scale hydro with diversified, small-scale renewable energy sources (RES) such as solar, wind, and geothermal, supported by the 2014 electricity law to attract private investment. Regionally, the paper highlights the role of the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) and the potential for the DRC to act as a strategic energy hub for Southern, Central, and Eastern Africa.

The GCF Secretariat reports progress across several operational areas, including the approval of USD 1.5 billion in funding and the signing of 19 accreditation master agreements. Key activities include the development of a gender and climate change training manual with UN Women, the processing of Project Preparation Facility (PPF) requests, and efforts to secure privileges and immunities (P&Is) through bilateral and multilateral agreements. The report also notes the recruitment of risk and monitoring specialists and ongoing engagement with UNFCCC thematic bodies.

The report analyzes Ethiopia's trajectory toward lower-middle-income status, highlighting significant progress in GDP growth and health indicators alongside persistent challenges in food security, education quality, and political inclusion. It uses scenario modeling to demonstrate that integrated investments in agriculture, human capital, and governance are essential to harness a looming demographic dividend and avoid instability driven by a large youth bulge.

The study finds that while agricultural leasing is a preferred asset financing method in developed markets, it remains nascent in sub-Saharan Africa due to systemic market failures. Key barriers include high down payment requirements (20-40%), a lack of secondary markets for used equipment, and informational asymmetries that lead financial service providers to perceive agriculture as high-risk. Demand is limited by the predominance of smallholder subsistence farmers and low financial literacy. The report identifies Ghana, Kenya, and Zambia as high-potential markets and recommends targeted technical assistance for banks, awareness campaigns for farmers, and the creation of risk-sharing funds to reduce down payment barriers.

The report argues that insurance promotes growth through two primary channels: risk mitigation (protecting assets and facilitating credit) and intermediation (mobilizing long-term capital for investment). It identifies a four-stage evolution path for insurance markets, noting that most sub-Saharan African countries are currently in the first two stages, where asset insurance dominates and the intermediation-for-growth role is not yet active. The transition to the third stage—retail expansion—is hindered by low income levels, high economic informalisation, and a shortage of actuarial skills. The authors recommend stage-appropriate interventions, such as developing contractual savings solutions for the informal sector and improving domestic professional capacity, to unlock the sector's potential to support capital markets and inclusive growth.

The document assesses Africa's infrastructure gaps in electricity, water, sanitation, and transport, noting that while funding from public, private, and donor sources has increased, systemic governance failures hinder progress. It highlights that inefficiencies in project preparation, a lack of maintenance, and corruption result in significant value loss. The author argues for a shift in focus toward governance interventions, including better regulatory environments, enhanced domestic resource mobilisation, and the adoption of innovative, localised technologies to ensure sustainable development and regional integration.

The document analyzes Rwanda's unique position as a global leader in female parliamentary representation, attributing this to post-genocide demographic shifts and the 2003 constitutional quota system. While noting significant progress in education and gender-responsive legislation, the authors argue that the impact of female MPs is limited by an increasingly authoritarian executive branch and persistent cultural barriers. The paper highlights a disconnect between Rwanda's top ranking in gender promotion and its low rankings in general human rights and political participation within Africa.

The document discusses the transition of the African Union Commission (AUC) leadership to Moussa Faki Mahamat. It emphasizes that the AU cannot return to 'business as usual' due to a volatile global political landscape and the urgent need for financial autonomy. A key focus is the implementation of a 0.2% levy on African imports to reduce reliance on international donors, aiming to provide $1.2 billion in overall revenue in 2017 and ensure peace operations are 25% self-funded. The text also highlights the necessity of institutional reforms proposed by President Paul Kagame and the need for the AU to address root causes of conflict and migration in countries such as Libya, Somalia, and Sudan.

Ethiopia is positioned as a climate leader, being the first Least Developed Country to submit an Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC). The government aims to reduce annual greenhouse gas emissions from 150 Mt CO2eq in 2010 to 145 Mt CO2eq by 2030. To support these goals, CDKN has assisted the Ministry of Finance and Economic Cooperation (MoFEC) in achieving accreditation as a National Implementing Entity for the Green Climate Fund and the Adaptation Fund in March 2016. Infrastructure investments include a 34-km light rail transit in Addis Ababa and a 750-km railway to Djibouti. Additionally, CDKN is supporting the development of geothermal risk insurance and research into greening the industrial sector, specifically leather, garments, and cement.

The document explores the potential for the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) to monitor Agenda 2063 and the SDGs, noting strong normative and thematic alignment. However, it identifies critical barriers, including administrative weaknesses, lack of funding, and slow review cycles, which currently render the APRM incapable of the extensive monitoring required. The authors suggest that for the APRM to succeed, it must undergo substantial reform, improve the frequency of its reviews, and enhance its data-gathering capabilities through ICT and partnerships.

The Lake Turkana Wind Power Project (LTWP) is a 310 MW wind farm in Kenya's Marsabit West County designed to increase national electricity supply by 15–20% and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 740,000 tCO2eq annually. Costing €623 million, it represents Kenya's largest single private investment and aims to stabilize energy prices by providing power at approximately one-third the cost of fossil fuel generation. The project has created over 2,000 local jobs and includes corporate social responsibility programs through the Winds of Change foundation to improve local education, health, and water access. Despite these benefits, the project has faced challenges including funding withdrawals by the World Bank and local tensions regarding land rights and equitable job distribution.

The report finds that East Africa is the largest regional crowdfunding market in Africa, though it is dominated by non-financial return models (donation and reward) and lacks bespoke regulation. While loan and equity-based models dominate globally, they are in embryonic stages in East Africa. The authors recommend against immediate bespoke regulation to avoid stifling growth, instead proposing a phased approach involving sector mapping, the creation of a regulatory sandbox ('RegLab'), and government-backed co-investment and currency hedge funds.

The document analyzes electoral trends in Africa between 2015 and early 2016, identifying four negative trends: constitutional alterations to extend term limits, manipulation of electoral calendars, harassment of opposition candidates, and low voter turnout. It highlights a gap between the existence of continental democratic frameworks, such as the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (ACDEG), and the political will of governing elites to implement them. The authors recommend structural reforms, respect for electoral calendars, and the adoption of social media codes of conduct to protect freedom of expression.

The document argues that climate action must be integrated into macroeconomic planning and sectoral policies to achieve 'triple wins' for mitigation, adaptation, and poverty eradication. It highlights the necessity of political leadership, cross-government coordination, and the use of 'knowledge brokers' to translate scientific data into actionable policy. The report emphasizes that while international finance is a catalyst, domestic resource mobilisation and the removal of fossil fuel subsidies are critical for long-term sustainability. Case studies from Asia, Africa, and Latin America illustrate the importance of gender-sensitive approaches, participatory planning, and the role of non-state actors in scaling up local innovations to national levels.

The research finds that economic growth is the strongest driver of reduced international migration, while there is no discernible direct relationship between hunger levels or agricultural productivity alone and migration flows. The authors argue that to reduce migration, investments must move beyond farm-level productivity to create broader economic opportunities and off-farm activities in rural areas.

The document examines the gap between Africa's formal legal commitments to freedom of movement and the actual practice of migration governance. While the African Union and various Regional Economic Communities have established frameworks to promote labour mobility and economic integration, implementation remains inconsistent. West Africa is highlighted as the most advanced model, whereas Southern Africa is noted for a securitised approach to migration. The brief argues that aligning regional policies and improving communication on the net benefits of migration are essential for unlocking the continent's development potential.