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The 2024 independent evaluation finds that Canada's carbon pricing systems are effective, contributing between one-third and one-half of all projected emission reductions from climate policies by 2030. While systems are more harmonized than in 2020, the report warns that the rigor of some industrial exchange systems (SEGE) could erode by 2030 due to an oversupply of credits caused by overlapping policies. Coverage is broad, encompassing 77% of national emissions, though gaps remain in heating oil and agricultural fuels. Competitiveness risks for large emitters are generally mitigated through design features and subsidies, while small-to-medium enterprises (SMEs) face varying pressures, partially offset by new federal revenue recycling mechanisms.

A letter from CAPE Nova Scotia physicians warning the provincial government that repealing bans on fracking and uranium mining would cause severe health harms, including increased cancer and birth defect rates, and contradict the province's climate goals.

The report finds that continuing current housing development patterns in Canada could lead to hundreds of thousands of new homes being built in high-hazard flood and wildfire zones by 2030. This trajectory could increase annual flood losses by up to $2 billion and wildfire losses by $1.1 billion. The analysis highlights significant gaps in provincial and territorial land use policies, which often delegate risk management to under-resourced municipalities. It also identifies moral hazards in disaster assistance programs and a critical lack of up-to-date hazard mapping and real estate disclosure. The report recommends that governments implement nationally consistent risk standards, reform disaster aid to deter risky development, and mandate hazard disclosure in real estate transactions to ensure housing affordability is not undermined by climate-driven destruction.

The Canadian Climate Institute warns that current land-use policies could lead to over 540,000 new homes being built in flood-risk zones and 220,000 in high-wildfire-risk areas by 2030. This trajectory could increase annual flood damages by up to $2 billion and wildfire damages by $1.1 billion. The report identifies critical gaps in provincial regulations, a lack of up-to-date risk mapping, and 'moral hazard' created by disaster assistance programs that encourage risky construction. It recommends strengthening land-use regulations, integrating risk data into housing and infrastructure funding, and mandating risk disclosure during real estate transactions.

The document describes Canada's dual-track carbon pricing approach, distinguishing between consumer carbon taxes and industrial systems for large emitters. It details two primary industrial models—emissions-intensity based systems and cap-and-trade systems—and compares their application across different Canadian jurisdictions, highlighting the specific frameworks used in Alberta, Quebec, and the federal backstop system.

Canada employs a dual carbon pricing approach consisting of a consumer carbon price and an industrial carbon price for large emitters. To prevent carbon leakage and protect trade-exposed industries, Canada utilizes large-emitter trading systems (LETS), which primarily take the form of intensity-based systems or cap-and-trade. There are nine LETS across the country, including the federal output-based pricing system (OBPS) and Alberta's Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction (TIER) Regulation, the latter being the largest due to Alberta's share of industrial emissions. Quebec operates the only cap-and-trade system in Canada, which is integrated with the Western Climate Initiative. The Northwest Territories uses a unique fuel levy with rebates rather than a trading system.

The document outlines the benefits of a net-zero electricity transition in Canada, noting that the power sector has already reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 60% since 2005. It argues that a clean grid will lower household energy costs, create distributed employment, and improve public health by eliminating pollutants from coal and gas plants. The brief emphasizes that achieving net-zero by 2050 will require doubling or tripling electricity generation to support electrification across all sectors, necessitating coordination between federal, provincial, and territorial governments.

The report finds that climate change is significantly increasing the number of 'lost winter days' (days above freezing) across Canada, with some regions seeing an additional week of such days annually. The analysis highlights specific impacts in provinces like Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia, and major cities including Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal, noting consequences for snow accumulation, ice coverage, and winter industries.

Canada has reduced power sector greenhouse gas emissions by 60% since 2005, primarily through phasing out coal. To reach net-zero, the country must mitigate another 47 Mt of CO2e while potentially doubling or tripling electricity generation by 2050. The transition relies on scaling wind, solar, and hydroelectric power, which are now often cheaper than fossil fuel alternatives. A net-zero grid is projected to reduce average household energy spending by 12% by 2050 and save households CAD 15 billion annually. Beyond economics, the shift reduces local pollutants like sulphur dioxide and mercury, which are linked to premature deaths and cognitive impairment. Key recommendations include implementing federal clean electricity regulations, facilitating interprovincial grid connections (interties), and streamlining provincial permitting processes.

The document examines how fossil fuel price volatility contributes to overall inflation in Canada, noting that energy prices accounted for 33% of Canada's overall inflation from February 2021 to June 2022. It argues that transitioning to a net-zero electricity grid by 2050 could save Canadian households an average of CAD 1,500 annually and reduce total energy costs by CAD 15 billion per year. The brief highlights the 'spillover effect' where energy price hikes increase costs for non-energy items, such as food, and can lead to central bank interest rate hikes that further squeeze affordability. It recommends policies that encourage fuel switching to electric vehicles and heat pumps, as well as investments in renewable energy infrastructure to ensure long-term price stability.

The document outlines the gTech-IESD modeling framework used to assess Canadian carbon pricing. It details ten policy scenarios ranging from 'No policy' to 'Announced policies with binding LETS systems', alongside sensitivity analyses for oil prices and technology costs. The report specifies macroeconomic inputs from the PBO and CER, and provides a comprehensive inventory of legislated and announced federal and provincial climate policies, including fuel charges, Large Emitter Trading Systems (LETS), and various investment tax credits.

The report argues that achieving cost-optimal carbon neutrality in Canada's building sector requires a massive shift toward electrification, primarily through heat pumps, and a significant reduction in gas network reliance. It warns that current regulatory inertia and the continued expansion of gas infrastructure create risks of 'stranded assets' and higher costs for taxpayers. The authors recommend that provincial governments provide clear long-term strategic guidance, mandate net-zero targets, and empower regulators to prioritize electrification over gas expansion to protect long-term affordability and reliability.

The report finds that a cost-optimal path to net zero in Canada requires a massive shift toward electrification of building heat, with electricity powering 78% to 91% of annual space heating demand by 2050. It argues that continued expansion of gas networks is inconsistent with these goals and risks creating stranded assets. The analysis highlights a critical gap in provincial policy leadership, noting that current utility regulation—which incentivizes infrastructure growth—is ill-suited for the energy transition. To mitigate risks, the report recommends that provincial governments legislate net zero targets, mandate electrification for new buildings, and equip regulators to manage the gradual contraction of gas networks while investing in electricity capacity and peak demand management.

The report outlines the technical process of combining Fathom's Global Flood Map (v3.1) with Public Safety Canada's residential building data and probabilistic vulnerability functions. It describes the use of 'big data' from US FEMA insurance claims to model damage distributions across 10 residential building types. The methodology accounts for flood defenses based on urbanization levels and applies the trapezium rule across eight return periods to estimate economic losses. Results show that Canada's defended AAL is projected to increase from 1,423 million CAD in 2020 to 1,681 million CAD by 2050, while undefended AAL is significantly higher, reaching 5,050 million CAD by 2050.

Analysis by Climate Central indicates that human-caused climate change made the record-breaking warmth in Canada during December 2023 significantly more likely. While El Niño contributed to milder conditions, the report argues it was insufficient on its own to produce the observed records. The warmth led to delayed ice road openings in the North and disrupted winter sports and skating in provinces like Ontario and British Columbia.

The report identifies systemic barriers to climate-resilient Indigenous housing in Canada, rooted in colonial policies and exacerbated by funding gaps and capacity constraints. It highlights the disproportionate risk First Nations face from flooding, wildfire, and permafrost thaw, while recommending a shift toward prevention-focused funding, modernized building codes, and the integration of Indigenous Knowledge.

The paper examines how strategic assessments can be used to streamline the approval of clean growth projects in Canada, particularly in light of the 2023 Supreme Court ruling on the Impact Assessment Act. It suggests that by shifting the regulatory burden from individual project assessments to broader strategic analyses of policies and systemic issues, Canada can accelerate its energy transition. The author recommends implementing clear triggers, a tiered approach to assessment, and robust outcome tracking, drawing on international examples from the EU and US.

The analysis finds that while exempting heating oil has a negligible effect on emissions, adding a natural gas exemption would increase 2030 emissions by 4.5 megatonnes. Furthermore, such exemptions would reduce the carbon rebate payments available to most households, negatively impacting affordability, particularly for lower-income groups.

The document argues that climate change is a health emergency in Canada, citing record-breaking heat and wildfires in 2023. It calls on the Minister of Health to lead decarbonization of the healthcare system, address fossil fuel pollution as a root cause of health harms, and implement the National Adaptation Strategy to protect vulnerable populations.

The report finds that heat pumps are the lowest-cost heating and cooling option for most Canadian households over the system's lifetime, though adoption is hindered by high upfront costs, information gaps, and structural barriers for renters. It recommends streamlining rebates, establishing one-stop shop services, and updating building codes to include cooling requirements.