Comment les politiques d’aujourd’hui stimuleront ou retarderont la transition des bâtiments vers un chauffage propre et fiable

The report argues that achieving cost-optimal carbon neutrality in Canada's building sector requires a massive shift toward electrification, primarily through heat pumps, and a significant reduction in gas network reliance. It warns that current regulatory inertia and the continued expansion of gas infrastructure create risks of 'stranded assets' and higher costs for taxpayers. The authors recommend that provincial governments provide clear long-term strategic guidance, mandate net-zero targets, and empower regulators to prioritize electrification over gas expansion to protect long-term affordability and reliability.

• To achieve carbon neutrality in a cost-optimal way, electricity must become the dominant energy source for heating buildings across all Canadian provinces. Nationally, the share of electricity in space heating demand is projected to rise from 21% today to between 55% and 60% by 2040, and between 78% and 91% by 2050.
• Continued expansion of the gas network is incompatible with a cost-effective transition to carbon neutrality. Provinces that continue to grow their gas distribution networks risk increasing the cost of meeting climate goals or jeopardizing those goals entirely, as these assets may become stranded before they are fully paid off (typically over 40 to 50 years).
• Low-carbon gases, such as hydrogen and biomethane, are too scarce and expensive to serve as primary replacements for heating buildings at scale. They are more optimally used in hard-to-abate sectors like heavy industry. Even in low-cost scenarios, they would only replace a small fraction of current gas demand in buildings by 2050.
• Hybrid heating systems (combining electric heat pumps with gas backup) may serve as a transition tool or a long-term solution in specific cold-climate contexts to manage winter peak electricity demand, but they do not justify further gas network expansion. In a cost-optimal path, residential gas consumption in Alberta—the province with the highest hybrid adoption—would still drop by 83% by 2050.
• The Canadian electricity grid requires significant investment to support widespread electrification. National electricity capacity development is projected to be 2.6 to 2.9 times higher than current levels to reach carbon neutrality. Managing winter peak demand is identified as the central challenge for electricity utilities to maintain affordability and reliability.
• Current public utility regulation in Canada is ill-suited for the energy transition because it is based on decades-old assumptions of slow, steady demand growth. Gas utilities have a direct economic incentive to expand infrastructure because they earn returns on capital investments rather than on the volume of fuel sold.
• Building sector emissions in Canada increased by 8.8% between 2005 and 2022, making it one of only two sectors where emissions are rising. Existing climate policies, such as carbon pricing and building codes, are insufficient to put the sector on a path to meet 2030 and 2050 targets.
• There is a significant risk of inequity in the transition: low-income households and renters are less likely to afford the initial costs of heat pumps and energy retrofits. If the transition is not managed proactively, these groups may be left as the final customers of a shrinking gas network, bearing disproportionately high fixed costs for network maintenance.
• Provincial and territorial leadership is the 'missing piece' for a successful transition. No province has yet provided long-term guidance on the future of gas for building heating or required gas and electricity systems to transform in a cost-optimal way toward carbon neutrality.

APA

Harland, K., Gibson, S., Dion, J., Gajudhur, N., & Mifflin, K. (2024). Comment les politiques d’aujourd’hui stimuleront ou retarderont la transition des bâtiments vers un chauffage propre et fiable. Canadian Climate Institute. https://institutclimatique.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Echange-de-Chaleur-Rapport-Institut-climatique-Canada.pdf

Chicago

Harland, Kate, Sachi Gibson, Jason Dion, Nikhitha Gajudhur, and Kathleen Mifflin. Comment les politiques d’aujourd’hui stimuleront ou retarderont la transition des bâtiments vers un chauffage propre et fiable. Canadian Climate Institute, 2024. https://institutclimatique.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Echange-de-Chaleur-Rapport-Institut-climatique-Canada.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Harland |first1=Kate |last2=Gibson |first2=Sachi |last3=Dion |first3=Jason |last4=Gajudhur |first4=Nikhitha |last5=Mifflin |first5=Kathleen |title=Comment les politiques d’aujourd’hui stimuleront ou retarderont la transition des bâtiments vers un chauffage propre et fiable |publisher=Canadian Climate Institute |date=June 2024 |url=https://institutclimatique.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Echange-de-Chaleur-Rapport-Institut-climatique-Canada.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{harland2024comment, author = {Harland, Kate and Gibson, Sachi and Dion, Jason and Gajudhur, Nikhitha and Mifflin, Kathleen}, title = {{Comment les politiques d’aujourd’hui stimuleront ou retarderont la transition des bâtiments vers un chauffage propre et fiable}}, institution = {Canadian Climate Institute}, year = {2024}, month = jun, url = {https://institutclimatique.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Echange-de-Chaleur-Rapport-Institut-climatique-Canada.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }