Des risques à nos portes

The Canadian Climate Institute warns that current land-use policies could lead to over 540,000 new homes being built in flood-risk zones and 220,000 in high-wildfire-risk areas by 2030. This trajectory could increase annual flood damages by up to $2 billion and wildfire damages by $1.1 billion. The report identifies critical gaps in provincial regulations, a lack of up-to-date risk mapping, and 'moral hazard' created by disaster assistance programs that encourage risky construction. It recommends strengthening land-use regulations, integrating risk data into housing and infrastructure funding, and mandating risk disclosure during real estate transactions.

• If current policies persist, Canada could see more than 540,000 new homes built in flood-risk zones and over 220,000 in municipalities with high wildfire risk by 2030.
• Annual financial losses from floods for new housing could increase by $340 million in an optimistic scenario and up to $2 billion in a pessimistic scenario by 2030.
• New residential construction is projected to increase annual average losses from wildfires by approximately $1.1 billion.
• A small fraction of new developments accounts for the vast majority of potential losses; redirecting just 3% of planned housing (about 150,000 units) away from the most vulnerable flood zones could reduce new flood risk by nearly 80%.
• Wildfire risk is highly concentrated, with 92% of projected new annual average losses occurring in only 20 municipalities, primarily in British Columbia's Thompson-Okanagan, Kootenay, and North-East regions.
• Most provinces and territories do not use their full legal powers to restrict construction in risk zones, often delegating the responsibility to municipalities that lack the financial and technical resources to implement strict regulations.
• Ontario and Saskatchewan are cited as examples of provinces with stricter land-use policies that result in relatively lower risks for their housing stock.
• Federal and provincial housing and infrastructure funding programs often ignore climate risks, potentially incentivizing construction in dangerous areas by focusing on short-term quantity and affordability over long-term safety.
• Government disaster assistance programs create a 'moral hazard' where homeowners and municipalities rely on post-disaster recovery funds rather than proactive risk avoidance.
• Risk mapping for floods and wildfires in Canada is often obsolete, incomplete, or inaccessible, which prevents informed decision-making by developers and buyers.
• Indigenous communities, particularly First Nations on reserves, face disproportionate exposure to climate hazards and unique obstacles in building resilient housing due to colonial land policies and limited funding.

APA

Canadian Climate Institute (2025). Des risques à nos portes. https://institutclimatique.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Risques-a-nos-portes-Institut-climatique-Canada.pdf

Chicago

Canadian Climate Institute. Des risques à nos portes. 2025. https://institutclimatique.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Risques-a-nos-portes-Institut-climatique-Canada.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Canadian Climate Institute |title=Des risques à nos portes |date=February 2025 |url=https://institutclimatique.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Risques-a-nos-portes-Institut-climatique-Canada.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{canadianclimateinstitute2025des, author = {{Canadian Climate Institute}}, title = {{Des risques à nos portes}}, institution = {Canadian Climate Institute}, year = {2025}, month = feb, url = {https://institutclimatique.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Risques-a-nos-portes-Institut-climatique-Canada.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }