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Evolutions & Revolutions
The report examines the evolution of military institutions in Southern Africa, focusing on the transition from colonial forces to national armies. It details the impact of liberation struggles, civil wars, and regional destabilization on the structure, policy, and professionalism of militaries in countries including Angola, South Africa, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe. Key themes include the integration of former combatants, the shift toward democratic civilian control, and the role of regional bodies like SADC in peacekeeping and security cooperation.
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Document type: Report
The TDCA: Impacts, Lessons and Perspectives for EU–South and Southern African Relations
The report examines the 1999 TDCA as a benchmark for Southern African states negotiating Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) with the EU. It highlights the 'spaghetti bowl' of overlapping regional memberships in Southern Africa—including SADC, COMESA, and SACU—which complicates the establishment of customs unions and the implementation of reciprocal trade deals. The text details South Africa's negotiating lessons, such as the need to understand internal EU dynamics and the importance of proactive leadership. It also analyzes the legal tensions between the SACU customs union and individual member states' potential EPAs, suggesting that expanding SACU could be a viable solution to regional fragmentation.
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Document type: Report
Reflections on Approaching an FTA Negotiation with Mercosur: A Review of Key Issues
The report argues that a free trade agreement (FTA) between the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) and Mercosur would offer limited static economic gains, as current trade flows would likely reinforce South Africa's existing comparative advantage in capital-intensive primary products. However, it highlights significant dynamic opportunities for industrial development through intra-industry specialisation, institutional collaboration on technology and small business policy, and the potential to discipline dominant upstream firms through increased competition. The author warns of risks in sensitive sectors, particularly motor vehicles and agriculture, where South Africa could become a 'periphery location' to Brazil's larger economy.
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Document type: Report
Understanding Indian Trade Policy
The report argues that a trade agreement between India and SACU is likely to be 'commercially shallow' and politically motivated rather than economically driven. It traces India's shift from a protectionist 'license-permit-quota raj' (1947–1991) to a strategy of 'incremental unilateralism' post-1991, where liberalisation is driven internally rather than by external trade deals. The author notes that India and South Africa are not natural trading partners, with trade heavily skewed by gold imports, and suggests that India's desire to preserve 'policy space' will lead to a limited agreement with significant 'negative lists' and minimal concessions in sensitive areas like agriculture and investment.
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Document type: Report
US Trade Strategy after Cancun: Prospects and Implications for the SACU–US FTA
The report analyzes the shift in US trade policy toward 'aggressive unilateralism' and bilateral FTAs as a means to open foreign markets and pressure the multilateral WTO process. It specifically examines the motivations and challenges surrounding the proposed US-SACU FTA, noting that while it offers an opportunity to lock in market access and build on the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), it faces hurdles regarding agricultural subsidies, intellectual property rights, and the disparate economic sizes of the partners. The authors warn that the FTA may not be a panacea for development if not coupled with broader structural policies.
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Document type: Report
Hawks, Doves or Penguins? A Critical Review of the SADC Military Intervention in the DRC
The document analyzes the roles of SADC member states in the DRC conflict, categorizing them as 'hawks' (military interveners), 'doves' (diplomatic proponents), or 'penguins' (avoidant/complex positions). It argues that while the intervention by Angola, Namibia, and Zimbabwe caused economic strain and international criticism, it was grounded in SADC principles of sovereignty and solidarity. The paper contends that perceived rifts between these 'allies' and South Africa were largely mythical, as evidenced by subsequent regional security protocols and the SADC Mutual Defence Pact.
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Document type: Research paper
Sustainable Development: The Case of Energy in South Africa
The document assesses South Africa's energy sector, primarily its electricity supply industry (ESI), through the lens of sustainable development. It analyzes the transition of Eskom from a vertically integrated monopoly to a corporatized entity and the government's efforts to liberalize the market while maintaining social equity. Key findings highlight the environmental burden of coal-dependency, the success of national electrification programs in expanding access to the poor, and the necessity of restructuring the ESI to optimize future investment and integrate renewable energy sources.
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Document type: Report
Hawks, Doves or Penguins?
The document analyzes the roles of SADC member states in the DRC conflict, categorizing them as 'hawks' (interveners), 'doves' (peace-seekers), or 'penguins' (avoidant). It argues that while the military intervention by Angola, Namibia, and Zimbabwe created perceived rifts with states like South Africa, these divisions were largely mythical. The paper concludes that SADC has demonstrated maturity and cohesion through the development of a Mutual Defence Pact and a shared commitment to regional security, positioning the organization as a critical partner for the United Nations in stabilizing the DRC.
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Document type: Research paper
The Emboldened Triangle
The research paper examines the IBSA Dialogue Forum, a partnership between India, Brazil, and South Africa aimed at balancing global power and promoting a more equitable globalisation. While the bloc has seen success in trade negotiations—specifically regarding pharmaceutical patents and challenging US-EU proposals at the WTO—it faces criticism for its exclusionary nature and the competitive economic interests of its members. The document highlights the transition from high-level diplomatic declarations to the need for tangible cooperation in sectors like health, defence, and science and technology.
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Document type: Research paper
Understanding and Regulating Arms Brokering in Southern Africa
The document is a table of contents and summary page for a workshop report held in Johannesburg from 15-17 March 2004, focusing on arms brokering, legislation, and regional cooperation in Southern Africa.
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Document type: Report
FINAL REPORT: STANDARDS FOR SUSTAINABLE TRADE
The report assesses the capacity of developing countries in South America, South Asia, and Southern & Eastern Africa to comply with international trade standards. It argues that while regional cooperation in accreditation, early-warning systems, and awareness-raising can offset national institutional weaknesses, the WTO's TBT Agreement is often unrealistic for 'standards-takers' who lack the scientific and legal capacity to influence international standards or prove their inappropriateness. The report recommends integrating technical assistance needs into national development plans and establishing mediation mechanisms outside the formal WTO dispute process.
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Document type: Report
Coup d’état in São Tomé e Príncipe
The document analyzes the July 2003 coup in São Tomé e Príncipe, arguing that while potential oil wealth increased international interest and influenced timing, the primary drivers were the demands of the Christian Democratic Front (FDC)—composed largely of former Buffalo Battalion soldiers seeking compensation—and the grievances of the military over poor living conditions. The coup was bloodless and ended through international mediation led by the CPLP, AU, and Nigeria, resulting in a Memorandum of Understanding that reinstated President Fradique de Menezes and provided amnesty to the conspirators.
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Document type: Research paper
DOS BURACOS NAS ESTRADAS À PROSPERIDADE
The document highlights a critical gap between the SADC's strategic visions and the actual state of its infrastructure. While some corridors like the Trans-Kalahari show success, most regional transport networks suffer from severe degradation, inefficiency at borders, and a lack of financial commitment from member states. The report emphasizes the dominant role of South Africa in regional investment and the potential of privatization and concessions, as seen in Zambia's railways and Maputo's port, to improve efficiency. It also addresses the impact of political crises in Zimbabwe on regional logistics, the strategic importance of transboundary water management, and the growth of wireless communications over fixed lines.
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Document type: Report
Botswana: Future Prospects and the Need for Broad-based Development
Botswana has achieved remarkable GDP growth and high credit ratings due to diamond exploitation and sound macroeconomic policies. However, this growth has not translated into broad-based development, as evidenced by a declining Human Development Index (HDI) and high income inequality. The country faces severe challenges from the HIV/AIDS pandemic, which threatens to undermine decades of development, and a lack of economic diversification beyond the mining sector.
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Document type: Report
Trade-Related Subsidies – Bridging the North-South Divide
The document examines the conflict between domestic subsidy regimes and WTO trade liberalization goals, arguing that current measures like PSE, CSE, and AMS only track subsidy levels rather than their actual trade-distorting effects. It proposes 'terms-of-trade' as a superior metric for detecting unfair trade practices. The report provides case studies from India, Brazil, and the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), highlighting how subsidies in OECD countries—specifically in the EU and US—harm developing economies' agricultural sectors, such as sugar and beef, while noting that developing nations often use subsidies for social stability and food security.
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Document type: Report
South Africa’s Defence Industry
The document traces the South African defence industry's shift from a state-driven system designed for apartheid-era isolation to a competitive global actor. Following the end of the Cold War and the transition to democracy in 1994, the industry underwent significant downsizing and restructuring, moving away from total self-sufficiency toward strategic partnerships and export-led growth. Key entities like Armscor and Denel were reorganized to separate procurement from manufacturing, while the private sector consolidated. The paper highlights the role of the Strategic Defence Packages (SDPs) and Industrial Participation (IP) in revitalizing the sector, alongside the challenges of implementing black economic empowerment and aligning industrial policy with regional foreign policy goals.
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Document type: Research paper
An Analysis and Review of Subsidies in Southern Africa
The report examines subsidies within the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), focusing on South Africa's manufacturing, agriculture, and energy sectors. It finds that most domestic incentives are WTO-compliant, though the Duty Credit Certification Scheme for textiles is an exception. The agricultural sector has seen significant deregulation since the 1980s, resulting in low Producer Support Estimates (PSE) for most commodities. However, the region remains vulnerable to foreign subsidies, particularly the EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and the U.S. Farm Bill, which distort markets for sugar and beef. In the energy sector, South Africa's heavy reliance on coal creates high carbon intensity and a lack of incentives for renewable energy due to low coal prices.
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Document type: Report
SADC Barometer
The SADC Barometer assesses the restructuring of SADC institutions, noting that while the transition from sectoral units to four central directorates was completed by December 2002, the process suffered from missed deadlines, understaffing, and a lack of human resource planning. The report highlights significant economic and political divergence within the region, particularly the dominance of South Africa, and warns that political instability in Zimbabwe and the impact of HIV/AIDS on food security threaten regional stability. It also examines the challenges of implementing a regional Free Trade Area, citing restrictive rules of origin and non-tariff barriers as major obstacles, while discussing the potential of South-South cooperation through a SACU-Mercosur trade agreement.
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Document type: Report
Sustaining the Peace in Angola
The document examines the transition from formal peace to social peace in Angola, focusing on the DD&R of UNITA and FAA combatants. It highlights the critical link between the reintegration of ex-soldiers and the resettlement of millions of internally displaced persons (IDPs), arguing that sustainable peace requires a community-based approach to avoid local conflict. The authors analyze the failures of the Bicesse and Lusaka processes—citing rigid timetables, insufficient resources, and poor reintegration planning—and evaluate the 2002 'Memorandum of Understanding' and the subsequent General Demobilisation and Reintegration Programme (PGDR). Key challenges identified include the proliferation of small arms among civilians, the lack of sustainable livelihoods in rural areas, and the institutional weakness of coordinating agencies like IRSEM.
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Document type: Research paper
DRYLANDS, PEOPLE, AND ECOSYSTEM GOODS AND SERVICES
The report provides a geospatial analysis of the world's drylands, which cover approximately 40 percent of the global land area and support over two billion people. It evaluates the provision of ecosystem services including forage for livestock, food production, biodiversity conservation, freshwater, carbon storage, and energy. The analysis highlights that while drylands are often perceived as unproductive, they are critical for human survival, though they face significant threats from soil degradation, water scarcity, and human activities such as overgrazing and urbanization.
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Document type: Report