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The report analyzes Kenya's development path toward 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' with eight ambitious sectoral scenarios and a 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario. Key findings highlight that while Kenya has a resilient economy and leads Africa in geothermal energy, it faces significant hurdles in corruption, infrastructure, and public debt. The analysis suggests that full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and improvements in governance would have the most substantial positive impacts on GDP per capita and poverty reduction. A combined approach of all scenarios could increase GDP by 123.1% over the current path and drastically reduce carbon emissions by transitioning fully to renewables.

The review finds that Kenya has implemented numerous initiatives to enhance climate resilience in its agriculture sector, including the development of drought-tolerant crops, improved rangeland management, and the scaling of sustainable aquaculture. While the enabling environment has improved through legislation like the Climate Change Act (2016) and the establishment of the Climate Smart Agriculture Multistakeholder Platform, the report notes a critical lack of baseline data and indicators in the original NAP, making it difficult to accurately track progress. Despite these efforts, smallholder production remains limited due to persistent climatic shocks, including a 40-year record drought from 2019 to 2022.

The project proposes a USD 10 million grant from the Green Climate Fund to restore 2,000 hectares of the South Marmanet Forest Reserve. The initiative focuses on three main components: improving forest governance through the Participatory Forest Management approach, implementing reforestation and afforestation activities, and diversifying community livelihoods through climate-adaptive technologies. The project aims to benefit 75,000 direct beneficiaries and 1.4 million indirect beneficiaries by stabilizing the flow of the Ewaso Ng’iro River and sequestering an estimated 18 million tonnes of carbon by 2050.

The paper examines the governance of the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus, arguing that while integrated approaches are essential for climate compatible development, they are often hindered by siloed government structures, political contestation over mandates, and limited local capacity. Using evidence from Indonesia, Kenya, and the Amazon basin, it highlights that horizontal and vertical coordination are critical but can be undermined by power imbalances between central and local governments. The author suggests a pragmatic approach to nexus governance, focusing on strengthening the technical and administrative capacities of local government institutions rather than striving for an impractical ideal of total comprehensiveness.

The tourism sector in Kenya is highly climate-sensitive, with climate change already causing infrastructure damage and threatening key attractions. While the sector contributes less than one per cent of national greenhouse gas emissions, the document encourages businesses to adopt sustainable practices and low-carbon operations to build resilience and capture the growing market for sustainable tourism.

The document argues that African agriculture must transition to 'climate-smart' models to combat projected yield losses of up to 50% by 2020. Using Kenya as a case study, it highlights several low-cost innovations: greenhouse agriculture combined with drip irrigation to reduce water use; rainwater harvesting from rock outcrops; the adoption of drought-resistant cassava varieties; the use of alternative indigenous fodders like acacia pods and tubers for livestock; and the implementation of Plastic Tubular Digester (PTD) biogas technology to reduce deforestation and energy costs. The briefing emphasizes that scaling these innovations requires moving beyond pilot projects through 'bankable projects' that attract microfinance, promoting participatory action research via National Agricultural Research Systems (NARS), and leveraging farmers' groups for capacity building.

The report identifies climate change as a 'threat multiplier' in northern Kenya, where it exacerbates natural resource scarcity and competition, particularly over pasture and water. Through field research in the Lekurruki and Sera community conservancies, the study finds that while climate change increases the risk of violent conflict, the outcome depends heavily on the efficacy of natural resource management (NRM) and local governance. The authors argue that current Kenyan national policies—specifically the National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS) and the National Policy on Peacebuilding and Conflict Management (NPPCM)—are disconnected, with the former ignoring security implications and the latter ignoring climate change. The report recommends integrating conflict analysis into climate strategies, enacting the National Land Policy to clarify tenure, and strengthening state security to reduce reliance on privatised or auxiliary agents.

The document outlines the process of creating community conservancies in Kenya, emphasizing the necessity of land registration under the Community Land Act 2016 to ensure tenure security. It details various legal registration options—including CBOs, NGOs, trusts, and cooperatives—and proposes governance models that balance community leadership with stakeholder collaboration. The guide provides a framework for developing management plans, securing wildlife, and negotiating fair contracts with private investors. Additionally, it advocates for the integration of traditional indigenous knowledge and the use of Bio-cultural Community Protocols to address climate change and biodiversity loss.