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This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the African Union's (AU) use of mediation as a conflict-prevention tool. It analyzes the institutional gaps, the tension between formal and informal approaches, and the need for a more structured, long-term strategy to address the root causes of conflict in Africa.

The report examines the distinct challenges of financial market development in fragility-affected states in Africa (FASA), where financial exclusion is significantly higher than in non-fragile sub-Saharan African countries. It advocates for a 'market systems' or 'M4P' approach based on facilitation and adaptive management rather than direct implementation. Key priorities identified include the development of functional identification solutions, risk-based tiered KYC regulations, and the scaling of promising practices such as Islamic finance, refugee/IDP finance, and impact investing. The document emphasizes that systemic change in these volatile contexts requires long-term commitment, a high tolerance for risk, and a deep understanding of local political economy and conflict dynamics.

The document assesses the limitations of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) in addressing illegal wildlife trade, noting that it is not legally binding unless implemented through national laws. It highlights a significant gap in compliance, with 50% of signatories lacking effective national legislation. The author recommends strengthening synergies between CITES and other agreements like the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (CMS), as well as fostering transregional consensus to prevent the displacement of illegal markets. Specific focus is placed on the need for increased capacity and funding for scientific authorities in high-biodiversity developing nations, particularly in Africa, to improve the evidence base for non-detriment findings (NDFs).

The document examines how fragile states—characterized by poverty and weak institutions—are prone to recurring armed conflict. It describes a 'conflict trap' where low development leads to war, and war further degrades GDP and public services. The authors argue that the international community can break this cycle during peace settlements by deploying robust peacekeeping operations to solve 'commitment problems' and by ensuring peace agreements are inclusive of women and civil society rather than relying solely on elite bargains.

Senegal is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its dependence on rain-fed agriculture and fisheries, and a population concentrated along a coastline exposed to sea level rise. While the government has established coordinating bodies like the National Climate Change Committee and identified priority sectors in its NAPA and INDC, the report finds that climate adaptation is not yet effectively mainstreamed into most national sectoral policies or subnational planning. Current adaptation projects primarily target agriculture, water resources, and disaster risk management, often using ecosystem-based approaches, but gaps remain in the health and tourism sectors.

The document examines China's shift from extractive industries toward diversified economic co-operation in West Africa, specifically in agriculture. It contrasts Chinese assistance with Western aid, highlighting a 'win-win' South-South model based on China's own domestic agricultural success. While traditionally focused on technical assistance and food crops, recent trends show an increase in state-owned enterprise (SOE) involvement in cash crops and biofuels. The authors recommend that China focus on equitable investments and that West African governments encourage agro-industrial upgrading to add value to the regional agro-business chain.

The Green Climate Fund (GCF) reports progress on its Readiness and Preparatory Support Programme, which aims to assist developing countries in accessing Fund resources. Between 28 April and 18 June 2015, the total number of nominated national designated authorities (NDAs) or focal points rose to 127, and the total number of readiness requests reached 74. The Secretariat finalized grant agreements totaling US$ 1.9 million for seven countries: Comoros, Dominican Republic, Ethiopia, Federated States of Micronesia, Rwanda, Thailand, and Togo. The programme operates across five activity areas, including NDA strengthening, strategic framework development, accreditation support, project pipeline creation, and information sharing. Capacity-building efforts include regional workshops in El Salvador and South Korea, with future events planned for Fiji and Egypt, as well as headquarters visits for delegations from Mongolia and Fiji. The GCF is also coordinating with partners such as UNDP, UNEP, and the African Development Bank to ensure complementarity in readiness support.

The document examines South Africa's complex relationship with the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) framework, noting a tension between its commitment to protecting civilians and its skepticism toward military interventions that may serve as pretexts for regime change. While South Africa helped integrate R2P principles into the African Union's Constitutive Act, its actions as a UN Security Council member—particularly regarding Libya—have led to perceptions of inconsistency. The author argues that South Africa prefers a moderate approach centered on dialogue and regional solutions, constrained by limited domestic resources and a strategic desire to avoid endorsing interventions that could be applied selectively in Africa.

The paper critiques the 'liberal peace paradigm' in Africa, suggesting that external peacebuilding often reinforces autocratic governance by focusing on state-building and technical capacity rather than addressing systemic inequality and patronage networks. It argues that current conflicts are driven by the collective denial of individual rights to maintain power configurations, and that peacebuilding must shift toward a rights-based approach to be effective.

The report examines the intersection of energy poverty and gender inequality in West Africa, highlighting how socially determined roles lead to differential access to and use of energy services. It identifies significant barriers for women in the energy workforce and entrepreneurship, including gaps in STEM education and limited access to land and finance. The document assesses the existing regional and national policy landscapes, noting a general lack of gender-disaggregated data and limited collaboration between energy and gender ministries. It argues for a gender-responsive approach to energy planning to maximize the impact of interventions and achieve universal energy access by 2030.

The document examines the increasing visibility of organised crime in Dakar, specifically drug trafficking, counterfeit pharmaceuticals, and cybercrime. It highlights the risk of 'criminal governance' where illicit networks provide services and authority parallel to the state, often aided by the corruption of law enforcement officials. The authors argue that Dakar's cash-intensive economy and real estate market are highly vulnerable to money laundering. To combat this, the brief recommends improving law enforcement capacity, adapting the Penal Code, and enhancing international cooperation, particularly with France and South American countries.

The document assesses South Africa's role as an emerging global actor in peace and security, specifically its interactions with the UN peacebuilding architecture (PBC, PBSO, and PBF). It highlights South Africa's experience in mediation and peacekeeping in countries like the DRC and Burundi, while noting a lack of systematic staffing of South Africans in the UN system. The paper emphasizes the potential of South-South cooperation, exemplified by the IBSA Fund, and recommends that South Africa leverage the 2015 UN peacebuilding review to promote African perspectives and national ownership of peace processes.

The paper argues that elections in Africa often trigger instability because they are primarily viewed as a means of accessing state resources. It suggests that stability requires 'inclusive political settlements' and a move away from 'electoral autocracy' where elections are used to consolidate power. The author emphasizes the need for credible Election Management Bodies (EMBs), legitimate domestic observation, and inclusive mediation mechanisms involving civil society and traditional leaders to prevent violence.

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is a US-Africa trade agreement established in 2001 that provides duty-free access to the US market for qualifying sub-Saharan African states. While exports from AGOA countries to the US grew by 78% between 2001 and 2014, the trade is heavily dominated by energy and commodities, with mineral fuels and oils accounting for 68% of imports. South Africa is a primary beneficiary, contributing an estimated 62,395 jobs and exporting high-end manufactured goods such as vehicles, unlike many other AGOA partners who rely on raw materials.

The paper examines why elections in Africa often trigger violence and fail to legitimise power, attributing this to high stakes regarding access to state resources. It argues that technical fixes are insufficient and that stability requires inclusive political settlements, credible election management bodies (EMBs), and robust domestic observation and mediation systems involving civil society and traditional leaders.

The document examines the evolution of democratic governance in Africa from the OAU era to the AU era, focusing on the APRM and ACDEG. It argues that while the continent has shifted from 'politics of the bullet' to 'politics of the ballot', significant challenges remain, including 'illiberal democracies' and slow implementation of governance reviews. The author advocates for stronger synergies between the African Governance Architecture (AGA) and the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA), increased domestic funding for National Programmes of Action (NPoAs), and a balanced role for non-state actors to prevent 'state capture' of these initiatives.

The document evaluates the African Union's (AU) efforts to promote democracy through electoral perspectives, arguing that while AU declarations have positively influenced the electoral landscape, elections often remain 'democratic liabilities' rather than assets. It identifies key setbacks including the resurgence of military coups, tenure elongation (the 'third term agenda'), and the refusal of incumbents to concede power. The author critiques AU election monitoring for being undermined by poor field coverage, a short-term focus on election-day events, and a tendency to be less critical of incumbents seeking re-election. The paper concludes that AU reports lack legal force and often conflict with domestic observer findings, necessitating a shift toward long-term monitoring and stronger collaboration with local civil society.

The document argues that African countries must integrate an ecosystem-based approach into economic planning to protect natural assets from pressures like population growth and extractive industries. It advocates for the use of ecological accounting and natural asset pricing to quantify the economic value of ecosystems, which often exceeds the value of their conversion for mining or farming. The brief recommends a multi-level governance system—combining national interdisciplinary coordination with local community co-management—and the adoption of innovative financing like Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) and Blue Carbon frameworks. It emphasizes the need for rigorous environmental impact assessments (EIAs) and scientific spatial mapping to guide conservation priorities and regulate development in sensitive areas.

Brazil has reframed its South Atlantic strategy to protect significant pre-salt oil and gas deposits, leading to a naval modernisation programme and a 'Blue Amazon' campaign to foster a maritime mentality. This strategy includes pursuing the expansion of its continental shelf through UNCLOS, developing a nuclear-propulsion attack submarine in co-operation with France, and establishing a 'goodwill belt' of defence ties with West African states. Brazil also seeks to revive the South Atlantic Peace and Co-operation Zone (Zopacas) to assert regional leadership and limit the influence of outside powers like NATO.

The report examines the critical role of mangrove ecosystems in Mozambique, highlighting their value in carbon sequestration, coastal protection, and supporting fisheries. It identifies significant threats from urban growth, aquaculture, and the extractive boom in oil, gas, and mining. The author argues that Mozambique's current governance is fragmented across multiple ministries, leading to weak enforcement of environmental laws. The document advocates for the use of ecosystem valuation, Strategic Environmental Assessments (SEAs), and 'Blue Carbon' financing to incentivize conservation and reconcile economic growth with ecological sustainability.