Search Climate Insights Directory

The authors present the During-Conflict Justice (DCJ) dataset, which catalogues 2,205 justice processes across 204 internal armed conflicts in 108 countries between 1946 and 2011. The research identifies that DCJ is a common tool, appearing in over 60% of conflicts since WWII, with governments being the primary adopters (70.4%). The study finds that democratic governments are more likely to use DCJ, particularly trials, truth commissions, and reparations, compared to autocracies. Rebel groups tend to use DCJ more frequently when fighting democracies and as their own relative military strength increases. Analysis suggests that government-initiated DCJ is correlated with a reduction in battle deaths in the following year and a higher likelihood of the conflict ending in a negotiated settlement rather than a military victory.

The report examines SFA in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Somalia since 2010, finding that billions in spending have often been ineffective or counter-productive. It identifies a 'piecemeal approach' where multiple providers with diverging interests create fragmented security forces, undermining professional standards and civilian oversight. Case studies of Mali and Somalia highlight issues such as high personnel turnover, a focus on technical skills over ethics, and the diversion of equipment to illicit markets. The authors recommend long-term, coordinated partnerships based on detailed local capacity assessments to foster cohesion rather than fragmentation.

The authors present the Non-State Actors (NSA) in Civil Wars dataset, covering internal armed conflicts from 1945 to 2011. The dataset shifts the unit of analysis from country-years to state-rebel group dyad spells, allowing researchers to examine the specific characteristics of opposition forces rather than just macro-level state variables. Key indicators include rebel strength relative to the government, territorial control, organizational structure (such as the presence of political wings), and external support from states or non-state actors. Descriptive statistics from the dataset show that while over 85% of rebel groups are weaker than their governments, nearly half are at least equal in their specific capacities to mobilize support, procure arms, and fight. The dataset is designed to be compatible with the Uppsala Conflict Data Project (UCDP) Dyadic Dataset to facilitate data aggregation across different research projects.

The scoping review identifies a critical shortage of robust quantitative evidence regarding refugee education interventions. Out of 1,873 screened articles, only eight met the strict methodological criteria for impact evaluation. Findings suggest that while cash transfers can increase the time children spend in school, they do not necessarily increase overall enrolment. Promising results for learning quality were found in early childhood development programmes, online game-based solutions, and language-enhanced physical education for second-language acquisition, as well as child and youth learning centres for literacy and numeracy in camp settings. The authors highlight significant gaps in research concerning the Global South, long-term impacts, and gender-specific needs for girls.

The document provides a comprehensive overview of global conflict trends from 1989 to 2019, noting a record high of 54 state-based conflicts in 2019. It highlights the significant role of the Islamic State (IS) in driving recent conflict increases and the prevalence of internationalized civil conflicts. While battle-related deaths have generally decreased over the last 20 years, specific hotspots in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia remain deadly. The paper also analyzes the decline in peace agreements since 2015 and the persistence of non-state conflicts, particularly violent drug cartel activity in Latin America and communal violence in Africa.

The paper analyzes conflict dynamics in Africa from 1989 to 2019, noting a record high of 25 state-based conflicts in 2019, many of which are low-intensity or involve the Islamic State. While Africa faces rising non-state conflicts and one-sided violence, it also leads other regions in the number of definitive ceasefires and peace agreements. The study further details the growth of UN peacekeeping operations in the region from 1994 to 2018, highlighting a significant increase in troop deployment peaking in 2010.

The authors argue that national-level GDP per capita is an ambiguous proxy for the drivers of civil war, as conflict is typically a localized phenomenon. Using a global grid of 0.5-degree cells and G-Econ data for 1990, they test three hypotheses: that poorer areas are more prone to conflict (H1), that pockets of wealth in poor countries attract insurgency (H2), and that deviations from national income averages increase risk (H3). Preliminary results indicate that conflict onsets are more likely in poorer areas of a state and that the relationship between Gross Cell Product (GCP) per capita and conflict risk follows an inverted U-shape, peaking at approximately $1,300 per capita.

The research examines the causal chain from formal (de jure) power-sharing institutions to peace, arguing that institutions operate primarily by inducing specific behavioral practices (de facto power-sharing). Using a global dataset of 180 countries from 1975 to 2010, the authors find that inclusive institutions increase the share of ethnic groups in government, which reduces the likelihood of rebellions by excluded groups but increases the risk of infighting among coalition partners. Dispersive institutions, such as federalism, are found to decrease the risk of ethnic conflict by increasing regional autonomy for minorities, although this effect is less statistically robust than that of inclusive institutions.

The document argues that rebel groups provide a unique 'laboratory' for understanding governance because they operate outside the Westphalian state system. It examines how rebels implement rule-making, enforcement, and service provision, and how these activities relate to their legitimacy and capacity. The authors propose a multi-dimensional framework for rebel capacity—military, economic, personnel, administrative, and social—and argue that territorial control is not always a prerequisite for governance. By comparing rebel and state behaviors, the paper suggests that governance is often multi-layered and that the relationship between territorial control and legitimacy is complex and non-linear.

The report analyzes how Egypt and Uganda navigate their relationships with Northern and Southern Sudan ahead of the 2011 referendum. Egypt faces waning regional influence and security dilemmas related to the Nile and border stability, while Uganda maintains a strong strategic and economic partnership with the Southern Sudanese leadership to ensure regional stability and expand trade.

The document examines how ethno-national diasporas influence civil wars through financial contributions, military and political involvement, and international advocacy. It analyzes the dual nature of this influence, noting that while diaspora resources can prolong conflict by sustaining armed groups and hardening political stances, they also offer significant potential for peace through post-conflict reconstruction, the provision of skilled personnel for new institutions, and the promotion of human rights discourses.

The research examines why self-determination groups adopt different strategies to achieve greater self-rule. By analyzing 146 groups across 77 states from 1960 to 2005, the author finds that while some factors like economic discrimination and independence demands increase the likelihood of both non-violent and violent irregular politics, others—such as group size and internal fragmentation—differentially drive groups toward either civil war or non-violent campaigns.

The research examines whether armed conflict contributes to excess female mortality by affecting reproductive health and maternal mortality. The study finds that while conflict is associated with moderately higher maternal mortality rates, its effect on overall fertility is only significant in low-income countries, where it may act as a deterrent to the demographic transition. Unexpectedly, the study identifies that conflicts in neighboring countries are associated with lower maternal mortality, potentially due to the effectiveness of international health interventions for refugee populations.

The WARICC codebook details the construction of a dataset designed to analyze the frequency and intensity of domestic water-related conflict and cooperation. Using BBC Monitoring as its primary source, the project employs an 11-point Water-Events Scale (WES) to categorize events from substantial national improvements (+5) to overt physical violence or national deterioration (-5). The methodology addresses potential data biases related to urban areas, regime types, and extreme events, while providing a comprehensive system of country and actor codes for standardized reporting.

The study traces a longitudinal history of violence in South Sudan, arguing that since the colonial period, local populations have been viewed as resources to be managed, exploited, and controlled rather than non-combatants. This logic of violent governance—characterized by forced displacement, collective punishment, and the blurring of lines between military and civilian actors—has persisted through multiple civil wars and continues to influence current conflict dynamics and the effectiveness of international protection efforts.

The conference reviewed the achievements and challenges of the APRM from 2003 to 2013, emphasizing the critical but often inconsistent role of civil society organisations (CSOs) in monitoring and implementing National Programmes of Action (NPoAs). Key discussions focused on the need to universalise the mechanism, integrate it into the emerging African Governance Architecture (AGA), and better harness the contributions of the African diaspora and youth.

This research paper by Amanda Lucey argues for the integration of peace and security into the discourse of South-South Cooperation (SSC), specifically in the context of the BAPA+40 conference. The author contends that while the original 1978 Buenos Aires Plan of Action (BAPA) focused on economic and social development, the contemporary African reality necessitates a holistic approach where peace and development are viewed as mutually reinforcing.

This policy brief examines the integration of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) into Africa, focusing on the shift from resource trade to infrastructure and industrial cooperation. It highlights the opportunities for regional integration and industrialization, while warning of the financial risks associated with debt-based lending and the need for African governments to ensure project viability and local capacity building.

This 2018 policy brief by the SAIS China-Africa Research Initiative analyzes the nature of Chinese manufacturing investments in Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, and Tanzania. Based on fieldwork from 2014 to 2016, the authors identify four distinct types of Chinese firms—categorized as 'geese'—investing in African manufacturing, ranging from large global supply chain actors to small opportunistic clusters. The report examines the impact of these investments on local value addition, technology transfer, labor relations, and the environment.

This policy brief examines the development of railway infrastructure in Ethiopia, comparing the Chinese-funded Addis Ababa-Djibouti standard gauge railway (SGR) with the Turkish-built Awash-Kombolcha-Hara Gebeya/Weldiya (AKH) line. It analyzes the trade-offs between different financing models, the effectiveness of technology transfer and capacity building, and the role of Ethiopian government agency in project design.