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Climate Risks and Carbon Prices: Revising the Social Cost of Carbon
The authors challenge the U.S. government's 2010 estimate of a $21 Social Cost of Carbon (SCC), arguing it underestimates climate risks. By adjusting the DICE model to include higher climate sensitivity, more severe damage estimates at both low and high temperatures, and a lower discount rate, the authors find the SCC could reach $893 in 2010 and $1,500 by 2050. They conclude that if these higher risks are plausible, the SCC exceeds the cost of maximum feasible abatement, making a precautionary approach to rapid emission elimination the most cost-effective strategy.
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Document type: Research paper
Highlights International Advisory Council Meeting 15th November 2010, Budapest
The document details Climate Strategies' transition to a new research programme for 2011, focusing on eight themes including the low carbon economy and adaptation finance. It reviews 2010 projects on carbon pricing, power sector decarbonisation, and the EU's 2020 emissions targets. A significant portion of the text argues for a steel-specific negotiation forum within the UNFCCC to address carbon leakage and competitiveness, and proposes 'Climate Innovation Centres' (CICs) to facilitate technology transition in developing countries through multi-disciplinary coordination.
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Document type: Briefing
Regional implications of the AGF recommendations: Africa
The document outlines the necessity of increasing climate investment in Africa, emphasizing the immediate need for public concessional funding for development and the role of private investment in low-carbon energy. It discusses the volatility of revenue sources tied to carbon prices, the need to compensate African countries for increased trade costs from international transport levies, and the requirement for carbon market reforms, including the inclusion of land-use change emissions, to attract investment.
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Document type: Executive summary
Regional implications of the AGF recommendations: Small Island Developing States
The document outlines how the AGF's proposed funding mechanisms affect Small Island Developing States (SIDS), emphasizing the need for grants for adaptation and the potential for private investment in renewables. It notes that while international transport levies could raise funds, they may negatively impact SIDS' trade and tourism, necessitating compensation.
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Document type: Executive summary
Competing Ecosystem Services: an Assessment of Carbon and Timber in the Tropical Forests of Central America
The research paper evaluates the trade-offs between carbon storage and timber extraction in Central American tropical forests using Net Present Value (NPV) analysis. It finds that while timber is more profitable on a face-value basis, the attractiveness of forest conservation is highly dependent on carbon pricing and discount rates. The author argues that incorporating co-benefits and sustainable forestry management is essential for making conservation economically competitive with timber harvesting.
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Document type: Research paper
The Determinants of Energy Efficiency Investments in the U.S.
The paper analyses 60,463 electricity-related energy efficiency recommendations for U.S. manufacturing SMEs, finding that payback time and investment costs are the primary drivers of implementation. It identifies an 'energy efficiency paradox' where firms are more sensitive to upfront costs than long-term savings, and notes that implementation rates are higher in states with higher greenhouse gas emissions and lower industrial GDP.
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Document type: Research paper
Economic Assessment of Forest Ecosystem Services Losses: Cost of Policy Inaction
The research evaluates the economic impact of forest area changes from 2000 to 2050, focusing on provisioning, regulating, and cultural services. Using a combination of market data, meta-analysis, and value transfer, the study finds that while managed forests may increase provisioning revenues, the loss of natural forests—particularly in tropical and boreal biomes—leads to significant welfare losses, primarily driven by the loss of carbon sequestration capacity. Brazil is projected to suffer the highest economic loss, potentially reaching 6% of its 2050 GDP.
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Document type: Research paper
PRESSING THE SURPLUS RESET BUTTON
The paper addresses the 'windfall' emissions permits (AAUs) held by countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Former Soviet Union (FSU), which threaten the environmental integrity of the Kyoto Protocol. It analyzes the conflicting positions of Russia and the EU, noting that Russia views its surplus as a hedge against future emissions growth. To resolve this, the authors propose creating a non-tradable strategic compliance reserve for first-period surpluses and implementing 'optimized trading' for second-period over-allocations. This approach aims to maintain carbon market prices and recognize the 'early action' of transition economies while preventing the market saturation that would occur if all surpluses were traded.
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Document type: Research paper
INTERNATIONAL SECTORAL APPROACHES AND AGREEMENTS: CASE STUDIES OF THE STEEL SECTOR IN CHINA, INDIA AND JAPAN
The policy brief argues that the steel sector, responsible for 5% of global CO2 emissions, requires a dedicated international negotiation forum within the UNFCCC to overcome competitiveness fears and leakage. It proposes a 'bottom-up' approach where existing national policies—such as China's energy efficiency targets and India's 'Perform, Achieve and Trade'—serve as building blocks. The author identifies six abatement categories ranging from closing inefficient plants to developing breakthrough technologies, noting that carbon pricing alone is insufficient to realize these opportunities. The brief recommends that the UNFCCC establish a steel-specific forum involving both government and industry to coordinate technology transfers, minimum standards for new plants, and funding for Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS).
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Document type: Policy brief
INTERNATIONAL SECTORAL APPROACHES AND AGREEMENTS: CASE STUDIES OF THE STEEL SECTOR IN CHINA, INDIA AND JAPAN
The briefing argues that the steel sector, which accounts for 5% of global CO2 emissions, requires a dedicated international framework to prevent emissions growth driven by demand. It recommends a 'bottom-up' approach using existing national policies—such as China's energy efficiency targets and India's 'Perform, Achieve and Trade'—as building blocks. To overcome competitiveness fears and carbon leakage, the author proposes establishing a steel-specific negotiation forum within the UNFCCC. This forum would address six abatement categories, ranging from closing inefficient plants to developing breakthrough technologies, and would integrate technical industry expertise to ensure ambitious national commitments.
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Document type: Briefing
The Carbon Capture and Storage Imperative
The report argues that carbon capture and storage (CCS) is essential to meeting mid-century climate goals because coal remains a dominant global energy source. It proposes a three-phase industry development model: a 'pioneer phase' to eliminate technical risks, a 'cost reduction phase' to scale deployment to 50 GW, and a 'mature industry phase' for deep emissions reductions. Key recommendations include a $20 billion investment for a diverse portfolio of pioneer projects by 2018, the implementation of GHG emissions performance standards for new and existing coal and gas plants, and the creation of Geologic Sequestration Utilities (GSUs) to manage CO2 storage. The report also emphasizes international collaboration with China and the use of reverse auctions to distribute financial incentives efficiently.
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Document type: Report
FOUR POLICY PRINCIPLES FOR ENERGY INNOVATION & CLIMATE CHANGE: A SYNTHESIS
The report argues that reducing global carbon dioxide emissions requires a shift from a narrow focus on R&D to a broader 'public works' model of innovation. It outlines four key principles: expanding innovation policy beyond R&D to include deployment and non-technical barriers; pursuing diverse technology and institutional pathways; treating CO2 reduction as a public good to justify government procurement and demonstration projects; and collaborating with rapidly industrializing nations. The document specifically illustrates these principles by suggesting the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) could accelerate building efficiency and small modular nuclear reactor (SMR) development through its unique procurement and infrastructure capabilities.
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Document type: Report
Billions of Dollars in Subsidies for the Nuclear Power Industry Will Shift Financial Risks to Taxpayers
The Union of Concerned Scientists argues that the nuclear power industry is seeking tens of billions of dollars in new federal subsidies through the American Power Act (APA) and the American Clean Energy Leadership Act (ACELA). The report estimates that if eight new reactors are built, subsidies could exceed $40 billion, and if all 31 reactors pending with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission are built, total subsidies could range from $65 billion to $147 billion. The document contends that these incentives—including expanded loan guarantees, accelerated depreciation, and investment tax credits—mask the high costs of nuclear power and disadvantage more cost-effective alternatives like energy efficiency and renewable energy. It further asserts that the industry already benefits from significant subsidies under the Energy Policy Act of 2005, citing a case study of the Calvert Cliffs reactor where public subsidies are estimated to approach or exceed private investment.
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Document type: Fact sheet
The Health Costs of Energy
The document outlines how transitioning away from fossil fuels reduces health costs via three primary channels: mitigating air and water pollution, reducing obesity through active transportation, and lowering climate change risks. It provides specific 2005 cost estimates for health damages from coal-fired plants ($62 billion), natural gas plants ($740 million), and vehicles ($56 billion). The text emphasizes that obesity currently represents a larger health cost burden in the United States than air quality impacts and suggests that energy policies should be evaluated based on total costs and benefits per unit of energy or distance.
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Document type: Briefing
Clean Energy and Climate Action: A North American collaboration
The North American climate policy landscape is marked by political uncertainty, with a strong reliance on U.S. legislative developments to shape Canadian policy dynamics. While regional initiatives in places like California and British Columbia drive progress, the lack of a federal price on carbon and the compartmentalization of policy-making hinder bilateral collaboration. The discussion highlighted the American Power Act (APA) as a potential framework, though its passage in 2010 faced significant hurdles due to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, competing legislative priorities, and upcoming mid-term elections. Experts emphasized that a 'wait-and-see' approach is insufficient and that long-term success requires balancing supply-side and demand-side policies alongside clear market signals for the private sector.
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Document type: Briefing
TACKLING LEAKAGE IN A WORLD OF UNEQUAL CARBON PRICES
The report examines carbon leakage—the migration of emissions to regions with laxer carbon pricing—specifically focusing on the EU ETS Phase III. It criticizes the European Commission's broad identification of 164 sectors at risk, arguing that the criteria used were too simplistic and failed to account for the 2008 economic recession or the actual auctioning rates. The authors suggest that leakage risk is actually concentrated in a few sectors, including steel, cement, and aluminium, and recommend tailored policy responses such as border adjustments for cement and investment subsidies for aluminium, rather than a one-size-fits-all approach of free allowance allocation.
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Document type: Report
Clean Energy and Climate Action: A North American Collaboration
The report outlines the results of expert dialogues held between 2009 and 2010 focused on North American energy and climate collaboration. It highlights a period of significant political uncertainty, particularly regarding U.S. federal legislation, and argues that Canada and Mexico must engage actively in policy discussions to avoid becoming "policy takers." Key areas for cooperation include carbon pricing, renewable energy investment, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and transportation fuel standards. The document emphasizes that while a unified "North American Bubble" for emissions targets is unlikely, pragmatic, sector-specific coordination and the harmonization of technical standards offer viable paths forward in the absence of a continental regulatory framework.
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Document type: Report
CRED: A New Model of Climate and Development
The CRED model investigates how international equity and capital flows influence climate stabilization. It argues that an optimal, welfare-maximizing climate policy requires significant resource transfers from high-income to developing regions to fund abatement and economic growth. The model utilizes McKinsey marginal abatement cost curves and a concave utility function to demonstrate that without such transfers or a very low discount rate, developing countries are unlikely to implement sufficient mitigation to prevent dangerous temperature increases.
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Document type: Research paper
The Economics of Low Carbon, Climate Resilient Patterns of Growth in Developing Countries
The report finds that significant greenhouse gas mitigation is possible in developing countries at low or negative costs, primarily through energy efficiency and forestry. While macroeconomic analyses for countries like Mexico and South Africa suggest that low-carbon transitions can be net-positive for GDP, the report warns that technical cost curves often omit significant implementation and transaction costs. It emphasizes that low-income countries (LICs) have different drivers, focusing on co-benefits like health and energy security rather than absolute emission cuts. The document also highlights a critical knowledge gap regarding 'climate resilient growth'—how to structure economies to reduce long-term vulnerability—and calls for better integration of adaptation and mitigation strategies to avoid trade-offs.
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Document type: Report
Clear the Economy
The CLEAR Act proposes a carbon price with 100% permit auctioning and consumer rebates to stimulate investment in energy technologies and protect taxpayers from rising energy costs.
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Document type: Policy brief