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Beyond promises: the AU-EU summit must strengthen multilateral peace and security
The document analyzes the convergence of African and European interests in reforming a strained multilateral system, specifically focusing on the upcoming AU-EU summit in Luanda. It highlights the shared need for a more representative global order and the urgent need to operationalize UN Security Council Resolution 2719 to provide predictable funding for AU peace operations.
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Document type: Research paper
From Captive Coal to Green Nickel: Securing Indonesia’s Future Competitiveness
The report examines the paradox of Indonesia's nickel sector, where a critical mineral for the clean energy transition is processed using carbon-intensive captive coal. It identifies a significant expansion of captive coal capacity, projected to exceed 32 GW by 2031, driven by resource nationalism and the need for stable power in remote regions. The document contrasts 'Green Opportunism' (short-term gains via coal) with 'Green Developmentalism' (long-term competitiveness via decarbonisation) and proposes specific roles for Chinese stakeholders to support a sustainable transition through technical assistance, green finance, and market-shaping rules.
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Document type: Report
Investing in the Future of Nuclear Deterrence
The briefing emphasizes that the US nuclear posture relies on a foundation of science, technology, and engineering (S&T) managed by the NNSA National Laboratories and the Department of Energy. It advocates for increased long-term investment in early-stage R&D, the modernization of aging manufacturing infrastructure through robotics and CNC, and the rebuilding of a specialized workforce. The authors suggest that the S&T base should be viewed as a tool of deterrence in itself, requiring stable funding cycles that transcend short-term political terms and expanded public-private partnerships to accelerate innovation.
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Document type: Briefing
Joint Communiqué on Long-term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS) to Inform 1.5°C-Aligned Action
The '2050 is Now' consortium calls for the integration of LT-LEDS into national planning to bridge the gap between short-term NDCs and long-term net-zero goals. The communiqué highlights that while global temperature projections have improved from 4°C to 2.7°C, 2024 was the warmest year on record at 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels. It recommends that COP30 promote LT-LEDS as catalysts for policy action, just transitions, and the mobilization of finance, urging the UNFCCC to prepare a third LT-LEDS Synthesis Report by COP31.
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Document type: Statement
China Energy Transition Review 2025
China is rapidly transitioning its energy system through massive investment in renewables, grid infrastructure, and whole-economy electrification. This shift is moving China toward a peak in fossil fuel use and is driving down the global cost of clean technologies, enabling emerging markets to leapfrog traditional development paths and potentially triggering a structural decline in global fossil fuel demand by 2030.
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Document type: Report
再生可能エネルギーで日本の国家安全保障を守る
The report examines the intersection of Japan's energy policy and national security, arguing that a rapid shift toward renewable energy—potentially reaching a 70% electricity share by 2035—would mitigate risks from volatile fossil fuel supply chains and enhance diplomatic and military autonomy. It identifies critical vulnerabilities in current maritime fuel routes and suggests that the resulting cost savings from reduced imports could fund defense procurement. While acknowledging challenges such as China's dominance in clean energy supply chains and cybersecurity risks, the document asserts these are manageable through diversification and technical innovation. It recommends stronger coordination between the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Ministry of Defense to integrate climate security into national strategy.
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Document type: Report
Tanzania and China: China–Africa Policy Signals, Substance and Suggestions
The document examines the evolving relationship between Tanzania and China, highlighting Tanzania's role as a 'first-mover' in several strategic initiatives. Central to the analysis is the December 2024 establishment of the Tanzania Investment Centre China (Hunan) Investment Cooperation Platform, which is anchored in the 'Hunan Model'—a Chinese strategy to deepen Africa ties through trade exhibitions, industrial clusters, and agricultural 'green lanes'. The author argues that Tanzania's unique position as a founding member of both the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC), combined with its historical ties to China, allows it to shape cross-regional economic policy in Africa. The briefing also details other key collaborations, such as the Tazara Railway and the Mwalimu Julius Nyerere Leadership School, and provides policy suggestions to ensure the Hunan Model serves African development interests.
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Document type: Briefing
Preparing for the Next Crisis: The EU’s Updated Approach to Biological Risks
The European Union has shifted from reactive crisis management to a proactive strategic framework for biological risks through the March 2025 EU Preparedness Union Strategy and subsequent July 2025 implementation strategies. These initiatives aim to secure essential medical supplies "under all circumstances," moving away from just-in-time delivery models. Key actions include the expansion of rescEU stockpiles, the creation of the Medical Countermeasure Accelerator (2025), a European Diagnostics Hub (2026), and a European Therapeutics Hub (2027). The strategy emphasizes civil-military integration, aligning with NATO's resilience targets, and expanding health intelligence via a Global Sentinel Hub. However, the document identifies critical gaps in long-term funding, the need for threat-agnostic detection capabilities like metagenomic sequencing, and the requirement for clear distribution protocols during crises.
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Document type: Research paper
Report of the 33rd meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research
The 33rd meeting of the IAI Conference of the Parties (CoP-33) in Asunción, Paraguay, focused on strengthening regional scientific cooperation to address global environmental change. Key outcomes include the adoption of the Asunción Declaration on Water Security, Biodiversity, and Climate Resilience, the establishment of the Indigenous People Advisory Committee (IPAC), and the launch of new transdisciplinary and science diplomacy curricula. The meeting also addressed funding uncertainties for Belmont Forum Collaborative Research Actions (CRAs) and approved the appointment of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the American Geophysical Union (AGU), and the Venezuelan Institute for Scientific Research (IVIC) as Associates. A special session on Paraguay highlighted the increasing intensity of droughts and wildfires, emphasizing the need for improved early warning systems and the integration of science into diplomatic negotiations for water management.
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Document type: Report
Keynote Speech the Berlin Biosecurity Dialogue
Susanne Riegraf, Deputy of the Federal Government Commissioner for Disarmament and Arms Control, delivered a keynote speech at the Berlin Biosecurity Dialogue on June 19, 2025. She highlighted the increasing risk of biological weapons due to the convergence of biotechnology, AI, and quantum computing, noting that AI-modified proteins can evade conventional detection methods. Riegraf discussed the limitations of the 1972 Biological Weapons Convention (BWC), which lacks a verification regime, and the need for NATO allies to enhance collective biodefense and early-warning systems. She also detailed Germany's interagency coordination challenges and its international support efforts through the German Biosecurity Programme and the Global Health Protection Programme.
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Document type: Statement
South Africa and the EU should collaborate to build strategic interdependence in critical minerals
The research paper proposes a strategic partnership between South Africa and the EU in the critical minerals sector as an alternative to the unpredictable diplomacy of the US administration. It highlights the complementary nature of their interests, noting that South Africa is a top producer of platinum group metals, manganese, and chromite, while the EU seeks to diversify its supply chains via the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA). The author identifies key challenges to implementation, including tensions over local value addition, private sector engagement, and the transparency of mineral agreements. The paper recommends that South Africa address structural infrastructure issues and that the EU provide targeted support for in-country beneficiation and ESG implementation to move from negotiation to tangible projects.
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Document type: Research paper
From threat to opportunity: Redefining energy security in Central and Eastern Europe
The document outlines a new energy security framework for Central and Eastern Europe, emphasizing the transition to clean energy to reduce vulnerabilities associated with fossil fuel imports and geopolitical instability. It advocates for the removal of fossil fuel subsidies, the establishment of a grid security framework to counter hybrid warfare, and the expansion of the EU single energy market through harmonized permitting and increased interconnectivity. Additionally, it calls for the EU to adopt an incentive-based investment approach, similar to the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, to maintain global competitiveness and avoid reliance on non-EU financing.
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Document type: Policy brief
Turkey’s Strategic Push for Africa’s Minerals and Potential EU Collaboration
Turkey is aggressively expanding its presence in Africa's critical minerals sector to support its domestic defence, electric vehicle, and renewable energy industries. While Turkey employs a pragmatic, commercially driven approach—often coupling mining with defence cooperation in volatile regions like the Sahel—the paper argues that aligning Turkish commercial agility with EU financial instruments and ESG standards through the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP) could create more sustainable, trilateral value chains that benefit African host nations.
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Document type: Research paper
The National Security Rationale for Japan’s Transition to Renewable Energy
The paper examines the link between Japan's energy dependence and its national security, arguing that a shift to renewables is essential for strategic autonomy. It highlights Japan's vulnerability due to importing 97% of its energy and suggests that leading the Asia-Pacific transition could fill a leadership vacuum left by the US. While acknowledging China's dominance in renewable supply chains, the authors contend that diversifying these networks is more feasible than managing continuous fossil fuel imports.
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Document type: Research paper
Fusion on the Grid
The U.S. currently leads the private fusion energy sector with 25 companies and over $6 billion in investment, but faces significant competition from China's state-funded programs. The report highlights fusion's potential to provide clean, firm power, support AI-driven energy demand from data centers, and create a new export market. To maintain leadership, the author recommends a $9.25 billion one-time appropriation for the 2025 Reconciliation Package, reorienting Department of Energy research toward commercialization gaps like breeding blankets, and streamlining regulatory and export frameworks.
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Document type: Report
NOAA’s Critical Contributions to US National Security
The Council on Strategic Risks asserts that NOAA provides indispensable data and infrastructure for US military operations, particularly in the Arctic and for naval navigation. The agency's science diplomacy strengthens ties in the Indo-Pacific and Caribbean, while its domestic services protect lives and livelihoods from extreme weather and support the US seafood industry. The document highlights that recent layoffs of approximately 880 staff members across six offices risk undermining these security and economic contributions.
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Document type: Statement
Advancing Green Public Procurement in South Africa
The report identifies that South Africa's public procurement, representing approximately 15% of its GDP, offers a significant opportunity to address environmental challenges. While national legislation specifically for green public procurement (GPP) is absent, existing regulations permit the integration of environmental considerations. Successes in the Western Cape and City of Cape Town demonstrate the feasibility of GPP in reducing water, energy, and waste. However, mainstreaming GPP is hindered by legislative gaps, limited practitioner capacity, financial constraints, and market readiness issues for smaller companies. The report recommends five strategic areas for improvement: embedding GPP into legislation, enhancing procurer capacity, integrating GPP into budget planning, establishing monitoring systems, and supporting small companies to improve market readiness.
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Document type: Report
Repositioning Africa in a rapidly changing global order
The report argues that Africa remains hindered by colonial legacies, financial dependency, and weak institutional leadership. It highlights critical crises in food security, youth unemployment, and rising conflict, while critiquing the AU's leadership selection process and its focus on reparations over immediate structural reforms. The document recommends a more proactive AU Commission, a reformed Peace and Security Architecture, and a unified foreign policy to transition Africa from a passive observer to a powerful global actor.
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Document type: Report
Climate Security and the New US Administration
The Council on Strategic Risks warns that the US administration's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the revocation of climate-focused executive orders create a 'blind spot' for foreign and security policy. The author asserts that climate hazards continue to threaten critical infrastructure, military readiness, and national security, citing recent wildfires in Los Angeles as an example. The document advocates for a common-sense approach to climate security, highlighting that the US military has deployed nearly 200 times in 12 countries over the last 2.5 years to respond to climate hazards.
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Document type: Statement
Ciudades y sequía en México: la gestión del agua como estrategia crítica de mitigación
The paper argues that drought impacts on Mexican urban water systems are mediated by infrastructure and management rather than being direct effects. It proposes 'adaptive water management' focused on demand as the primary mitigation strategy, identifying the lack of reliable information systems for tracking water loss, consumption, and billing as the main obstacle for water agencies.
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Document type: Research paper