The National Security Rationale for Japan’s Transition to Renewable Energy

The paper examines the link between Japan's energy dependence and its national security, arguing that a shift to renewables is essential for strategic autonomy. It highlights Japan's vulnerability due to importing 97% of its energy and suggests that leading the Asia-Pacific transition could fill a leadership vacuum left by the US. While acknowledging China's dominance in renewable supply chains, the authors contend that diversifying these networks is more feasible than managing continuous fossil fuel imports.

• Japan's extreme reliance on imported energy undermines its national security goals of sovereignty and economic self-reliance. The country imports 97% of its energy, with 83% coming from fossil fuels, which ranks it 104th globally in energy efficiency and ties its diplomatic priorities to the stability of Middle Eastern producers, from whom 94% of its crude oil originates.
• Recent geopolitical events have exposed the fragility of Japan's energy security. Despite relying on Russia for only 9% of its LNG, Japan saw energy prices rise by 10% over the last year following the war in Ukraine and had the largest fossil fuel trade deficit among G7 nations in 2023.
• There is a strategic opportunity for Japan to lead the Asia-Pacific region's energy transition, especially as the US deprioritizes renewables. Other regional actors are already setting targets: Australia aims for 82% renewable electricity by 2030 and net-zero defense emissions by 2050, while Indonesia, Thailand, and South Korea are pursuing similar transitions.
• Japan's current 7th Basic Energy Plan is insufficient as it fails to meet the target of tripling renewable energy by 2030. The transition faces hurdles including permitting, supply chain bottlenecks, and China's dominance in rare earths and solar/wind components.

APA

Kidd, R., & Kobayashi, Y. (2025). The National Security Rationale for Japan’s Transition to Renewable Energy. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/05/20/the-national-security-rationale-for-japans-transition-to-renewable-energy/

Chicago

Kidd, Richard, and Yuki Kobayashi. The National Security Rationale for Japan’s Transition to Renewable Energy. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2025. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/05/20/the-national-security-rationale-for-japans-transition-to-renewable-energy/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kidd |first1=Richard |last2=Kobayashi |first2=Yuki |title=The National Security Rationale for Japan’s Transition to Renewable Energy |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=20 May 2025 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/05/20/the-national-security-rationale-for-japans-transition-to-renewable-energy/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kidd2025national, author = {Kidd, Richard and Kobayashi, Yuki}, title = {{The National Security Rationale for Japan’s Transition to Renewable Energy}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2025}, month = may, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/05/20/the-national-security-rationale-for-japans-transition-to-renewable-energy/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }