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Following a strong performance in the 2019 European elections, Europe Écologie-Les Verts (EELV) faces the challenge of converting this success into long-term electoral stability. The author notes that French green parties historically perform better in European elections than in national ones. To break this cycle, the document suggests EELV should leverage its 'ownership' of ecological issues, appeal to a diverse and volatile electorate—including young voters and former supporters of Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Luc Mélenchon—and shift from internal focus to a strategic ambition for power.

The report analyzes the drivers of ethnic conflict in contemporary Ethiopia, focusing on the cyclical relationship between political institutions and nationalist mobilizations. It argues that the 'centralised ethno federation' established by the EPRDF created fault lines that, when combined with recent political liberalization and institutional fragility, led to widespread violence. The author examines specific conflicts in the north, west, and south, applying the concepts of the 'security dilemma' and 'invidious comparison' to explain micro-level violence. The document concludes that sustainable stability requires transforming the ruling party, conducting inclusive national dialogue, and reclaiming state autonomy from mob influence.

The author argues that EU enlargement in the Western Balkans has stalled due to a 'dull reality' where local leaders benefit from the status quo and the EU lacks the political will or understanding to enforce genuine rule of law. The Berlin Process is critiqued as a 'plan B' that prioritised technical compliance over substantive reform. The document highlights specific failures in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia, North Macedonia, Kosovo, and Albania, while warning that an economic and strategic vacuum is being filled by China, Russia, Turkey, and the USA. It further expresses concern over Croatia's 2020 EU presidency given its nationalist tendencies and strained relations with neighbours.

The policy brief examines the political landscape of President Joko Widodo's second-term cabinet, noting that the inclusion of opposition figures may grant him control over 74 per cent of the People's Representative Council. While the new Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources is tasked with meeting renewable energy targets and reducing oil and gas imports, the document notes that Widodo's first term saw renewable energy overshadowed by coal power expansion and palm oil biodiesel projects. The brief highlights the 2019 Low Carbon Development Initiative (LCDI) as a framework to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 43 per cent by 2030 while maintaining 6 per cent GDP growth.

The report analyzes the fragile political alliance between President Felix Tshisekedi's CACH coalition and former President Joseph Kabila's FCC, which dominates the DRC's parliament. It identifies key priorities for the 2019–2023 period, including reforming the CENI and Constitutional Court, addressing socio-economic needs, and stabilizing the eastern DRC. The author presents several scenarios ranging from a best-case transition to democracy to a fragmentation and chaos scenario, while emphasizing the role of the international community and regional neighbors in supporting transformational change.

The report examines the overlapping claims of Somaliland and Puntland to the Sool and Sanaag regions, highlighting how colonial legacies and clan identities create divergent visions of administration. It details recent military clashes in Tukaraq and the militarisation of Sanaag, while noting that economic and social ties persist despite political tensions. The author argues that a durable solution requires consulting local populations and moving beyond identity-based power-sharing.

The report attributes the rise in Ethiopia's ethnic violence, particularly since 2018, to a self-reinforcing cycle of contending ethno-nationalisms and institutional fragility. It argues that the centralized ethno-federal system created paradoxes of empowerment and disempowerment, while the ruling party (EPRDF) became fractured along ethnic lines. The author identifies 'security dilemmas'—where groups arm themselves for protection, thereby increasing the insecurity of others—as a micro-level driver of conflict. The report recommends internal party negotiations, a broad national dialogue to reconstitute the state, professionalization of security forces, and urgent job creation for youth to address economic grievances.

The German Green Party has experienced a significant rise in support, surpassing the Social Democrats (SPD) in the 2019 European elections and becoming a leading force in German politics. This momentum is attributed to the party's transition from an anti-establishment movement to a 'responsible political actor' capable of governing, as evidenced by its presence in nine regional governments. The party's success is further driven by the leadership of Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock, who have moved beyond internal ideological divides to embrace 'radical realism'—a strategy that bridges contradictions between economy and ecology. This shift coincides with a broader restructuring of the German political landscape, where traditional 'Volksparteien' (people's parties) like the CDU and SPD are losing influence as society becomes more individualised and climate change becomes a primary public concern.

Following the 2019 European elections, Europe Écologie Les Verts (EELV) emerged as a significant independent force in France, securing 13.5% of the vote. The author argues that the party's success was driven by its refusal to merge into a united left-wing list and the influence of widespread climate protests. The text contrasts the Greens' approach with 'neo-populism'—seen in the Rassemblement National (RN) and La France Insoumise (LFI)—which the author claims is ill-suited for democratic self-organisation. The document concludes that a modern French left must be built around political ecology, integrating social justice with a responsibility toward nature and future generations.

The author argues that while the EU has developed better legal and institutional tools to protect the rule of law, the political commitment of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is questionable. The text highlights a tension between the 'fact-based' discourse of judicial independence and a 'détente' policy that risks validating illiberal narratives in Eastern Europe.

The report assesses how the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) and the Public Protector in South Africa have been affected by political interference. It argues that while these bodies are designed for impartiality, presidential appointment powers and the selection of politically aligned leaders have frequently compromised their independence. The NPA is described as having a 'tumultuous existence' due to executive pressure, while the Public Protector's effectiveness is noted to depend heavily on the individual incumbent, ranging from the highly regarded Thuli Madonsela to the court-criticized Busisiwe Mkhwebane. The author recommends constraining presidential discretion in appointments, introducing separate budgets for the NPA, and involving civil society in recruitment to bolster institutional integrity.

The report analyzes the rise of an insurgency in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique, attributing it to long-term government neglect, high youth unemployment, and social exclusion. It details the group's evolution from targeting security installations to committing atrocities against civilians, while criticizing the government's 'extrajudicial state of emergency' and human rights violations.

The research challenges the assumption that European far-right parties uniformly deny climate change, highlighting a spectrum of attitudes from explicit rejection to acceptance of science. While parties like Germany's AfD maintain strong climate denial, Austria's FPÖ and Italy's Lega have moved toward accepting climate change as a reality. However, these parties use the issue to promote 'climate nationalism', rejecting supranational governance and the Paris Agreement in favor of national sovereignty and border control.

Following the May 26 2019 elections, Belgium's Green parties saw divergent results: Ecolo grew in Wallonia and Brussels, while Groen's performance in Flanders was viewed as disappointing. The author attributes some of this to 'climate reassurers'—right-wing parties like NVA and Vlaams Belang that downplay the urgency of climate action to maintain neoliberal economic models. The document explores two future strategies for the Greens: focusing on local governance in cities to demonstrate success or joining federal and regional governments despite the risk of compromising their radical climate agenda.

The authors contend that the EU is paralyzed by institutional inertia, the dominance of the Council, and the influence of vested interests. They critique Emmanuel Macron's reliance on a Franco-German bilateral engine, arguing that it ignores the reality of transnational politics and the effectiveness of coalitions like the Visegrád Group. The text suggests that breaking the deadlock requires leveraging the European Parliament, forming offensive and defensive coalitions, and using strategic unilateral action or the blocking of trade deals to force systemic change.

The author contends that the European Union's handling of the 2008 economic crisis eroded public trust and democratic legitimacy, leaving it ill-equipped to face urgent challenges like climate change. To avoid public rejection and the rise of the far-right, the document proposes transforming EU institutions to be more permeable to citizen participation and reconstructing a common narrative based on solidarity and shared European values.

The document analyzes the tension between two competing sets of European values: 1960s liberal values (such as LGBT rights and feminism) and traditional Christian identity. It argues that populist movements use a 'concocted vision of the past' to frame Islam as culturally incompatible with Europe, while simultaneously ignoring the fact that they have embraced the very liberal values that traditional Christianity rejects. This paradox, combined with laws banning religious symbols to target Islam, results in the further dechristianisation of Europe, turning faith into mere 'folklore'.

The author contends that Viktor Orbán's government has systematically dismantled democratic institutions in Hungary, creating an 'authoritarian regime' that serves as a model for far-right movements in Europe. The text argues that previous EU responses were too timid, relying on 'soft law' and infringement procedures that failed to produce results. It advocates for the 'nuclear' option of Article 7—which can suspend voting rights—and specifically proposes linking EU funding in the Multiannual Financial Framework to the state of the rule of law to disrupt the financial incentives supporting the current regime.

The report analyzes the shift in irregular migration patterns in North Africa, where countries previously serving as transit zones have become points of departure. It argues that economic decline and structural inequality are driving young Maghrebi citizens to migrate, which in turn complicates diplomatic relations and security partnerships between Maghreb states and European nations.

The document analyzes the tension between the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the African Union (AU), attributing the friction to perceived bias, the influence of the UN Security Council, and a clash between retributive and restorative justice. It explores the proposed African Court of Justice and Human Rights (ACJHR) and the Malabo Protocol as regional alternatives, while noting significant hurdles in funding and ratification. The author argues that while the ICC is limited by global power politics, Africa's path to accountability depends on the political will to ratify regional judicial frameworks and utilize hybrid courts.