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The document analyzes Senegalese foreign policy under President Abdoulaye Wade (2000–2012) and the transition to President Macky Sall. It highlights a shift from 'classical' diplomacy led by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs toward a more technical, economy-centered approach involving non-state actors and specialized ministries. The paper emphasizes the 'hyper-power' of the presidency over the legislature and judiciary in external affairs. Key trends include a realignment toward emerging economic powers like China and Dubai, a revival of Pan-Africanist goals through the African Union and Nepad, and a high degree of personalization in diplomacy under Wade. Following the 2012 election, the author notes a return to traditional diplomacy, characterized by restored ties with France and improved relations with neighbors like Gambia and Mauritania.

The report analyzes the shift in power relations in Mali after the 2013 French military intervention, noting a 're-presidentialised' political system and a temporary decline in the influence of the 2012 military junta. It argues that while military gains in the north have been achieved, lasting stability requires inclusive reconciliation that addresses the grievances of northern communities and a credible electoral process that avoids returning to previous patterns of corruption. The author cautions against a traditional UN peacekeeping mission, suggesting a peace support operation instead, and emphasizes the need for comprehensive security sector reform and regional cooperation to counter terrorist and criminal networks.

The document analyzes the shift from top-down public diplomacy to a more interactive digital age, exploring how social media affects political sentiment in China and across Africa. It argues that while technology allows for greater public engagement, its influence on actual policymaking varies by national context. In China, a complex negotiation exists between the state and various levels of public opinion (elite, sub-elite, and popular). In Africa, a 'technological leapfrog' is occurring via mobile access, yet in South Africa, social media has not yet become a significant tool for policy negotiation due to a lack of popular sentiment and deep-seated societal divisions. The author concludes that China–Africa relations remain primarily driven by leadership and economic interests, with public understanding remaining superficial and reactive.

The author contends that COP18 achieved modest but real progress, including the EU's acceptance of a second Kyoto Protocol commitment period and the continuation of the Durban Platform. The text posits that the period following the 'disastrous failure' of COP15 has been a transitional phase used to clarify political positions and move toward a more flexible system where emerging economies like China, India, and Brazil also commit to emission reductions. The author argues that 'political will' is insufficient for breakthroughs; instead, 'enabling conditions'—such as social stability and the mitigation of income inequality—are required for national leaders to build domestic support for bold international climate action.

The author argues that corruption in South Africa is driven by a conflict between a liberal view of the state (emphasising neutrality) and the ANC's National Democratic Revolution (NDR) view, which seeks to transform the state to serve the black majority. This tension creates a 'situational logic' where deviation from formal public service rules is justified to achieve political goals like Black Economic Empowerment. The author further contends that rising corruption is not merely a moral failure but evidence of 'weak institutions'—organisations lacking the cohesion, processes, and stability to produce a 'universal' public good. The paper concludes that the remedy for corruption in South Africa lies in state-building rather than simple policing.

The 2011 elections in the DRC were marked by significant logistical failures, allegations of fraud, and persistent insecurity, particularly in the east. While Joseph Kabila was declared the winner and consolidated power, the process was criticized by international observers and the opposition for lacking transparency. Post-election dynamics have been characterized by continued instability in the Kivu regions, including military mutinies and the emergence of the M23 group, alongside deep-seated socio-economic poverty and ethnic polarization.

The 2011 elections in the DRC were marked by logistical failures, allegations of fraud, and political radicalization. While Joseph Kabila was declared the winner and maintained a parliamentary majority, the process was criticized by international observers and the domestic opposition. Post-election stability has been undermined by renewed insecurity in the east, specifically army mutinies and tensions with Rwanda, alongside persistent socioeconomic hardship and a lack of national reconciliation.

The document argues that while governance-related intra-state conflicts have become more prevalent than direct inter-state border disputes since the late 1980s, Africa's porous and artificial colonial borders continue to threaten peace and security. These boundaries facilitate the 'regionalisation of conflict' by allowing domestic instability to spill over into neighbouring states, as seen in the Great Lakes region, the Horn of Africa, and West Africa. The author contends that the African Union's (AU) policy of maintaining the colonial status quo (the 'inviolability of national boundaries') has not eliminated tensions. To address this, the AU Border Programme (AUBP) seeks to transform borders from 'barriers' into 'bridges' through proper delimitation and demarcation, which the author identifies as a necessary precondition for successful continental integration and the structural prevention of conflict.

The document examines Mozambique's transition from a Marxist system to a market-oriented multiparty democracy following a civil war (1977–1992). It highlights the political dominance of Frelimo and the struggles of opposition parties like Renamo and MDM. The report details a heavy reliance on international aid, which compromises national sovereignty, and a fragile economy characterized by a massive informal sector and high urban unemployment. It concludes that the lack of a viable political alternative to Frelimo and persistent socio-economic stresses pose risks to national and regional stability.

Former President Ahmad Tejan Kabbah details Sierra Leone's transition from a failed state characterized by a brutal civil war (1991–2002) to a functioning democracy. He attributes the conflict to bad governance, corruption, and the influence of the Liberian conflict, while highlighting the role of international interventions (ECOMOG, UN, UK, US) and internal reforms in restoring peace. The report emphasizes the importance of constitutional adherence, security sector reform, and the fight against corruption in sustaining stability.

The document analyzes China's multifaceted engagement in Sudan from 2005 to 2011, highlighting a transition from a predominantly bilateral relationship with Khartoum to a more complex triangular relationship involving the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS). While China's role was heavily driven by oil interests and a preference for bilateralism, it increasingly adopted a 'peace through development' approach, providing infrastructure projects and humanitarian aid in Darfur and Southern Sudan. The paper notes a strategic recalibration as Beijing moved from supporting Sudanese unity to recognizing South Sudan's independence to protect its investments and maintain regional stability.

The author analyzes the Occupy movement as a response to a systemic crisis driven by neo-liberal wealth redistribution and austerity in Europe. While praising the movement's concept of solidarity and its focus on the '99 per cent', the text warns that spontaneous protests are insufficient without a structured alliance of institutions, unions, and parties. The author calls for a new societal model that replaces consumerism with a vision of a 'good life' for all, incorporating fairer taxation and politically negotiated limits on resource use to prevent poverty and climate wars.

The document argues that the PLO is in acute need of democratic reform to address widespread distrust in its unelected leadership. It proposes a model of fully proportional representative elections for the PNC based on the geographic distribution of Palestinians globally. While political will exists between Fatah and Hamas following the May 2011 Cairo Agreement, the author identifies significant obstacles, including the risk to Jordanian citizenship for voters in Jordan and pressure from Western powers (the Quartet) who oppose a Palestinian leadership that includes Hamas.

The document argues that SADC's approach to the Zimbabwean crisis is heavily shaped by a 'club of brother presidents' mentality, where former liberation movements (including ZANU–PF, ANC, MPLA, FRELIMO, SWAPO, and CCM) prioritize solidarity over democratic pressure. This historical conservatism has led to a policy of 'quiet diplomacy' and a reluctance to compel ZANU–PF to fully implement the Global Political Agreement (GPA). The author notes that ZANU–PF has strategically reinvented its history to strengthen ties with regional partners and frame the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) as a Western 'Trojan Horse'. The paper concludes that the MDC's lack of liberation credentials isolates it within a region where ruling parties still derive legitimacy from anti-colonial struggles.

The document analyzes the rise of intra-South insecurity in South Sudan, attributing it to historical leadership splits, ethnic tensions, the militarization of politics, and political interference by the SPLM. It details several active rebellions led by former generals and assesses the impact of these dynamics on state stability and development, while providing policy recommendations for the Government of South Sudan and the international community.

The briefing describes Angola's political system as a hybrid of a formal government ruled by the MPLA and a more resilient 'shadow' government controlled by President José Eduardo Dos Santos. This shadow structure, powered by the national oil company Sonangol, manages international policy, money supply, and security independently of formal ministries. The author argues that recent legislative changes, including the 2010 constitution, have formalized the president's unlimited power and weakened the formal state's autonomy. While the regime maintains stability through a vast patronage network, the document identifies internal tensions within the MPLA and the risks of uncontrolled corruption as primary threats to the system's reproduction.

The 2011 Ugandan elections resulted in a fourth term for President Yoweri Museveni, who secured 68.38% of the vote. While some regional observers deemed the process free and fair, international bodies like the EU and AU cited widespread irregularities, including voter bribery, ballot stuffing, and intimidation. The report highlights significant internal tensions, such as the conflict with the Buganda kingdom and the potential for resource-based conflict following oil discoveries in Buliisa and Amaru districts. Regionally, Museveni's victory maintains his influence in the East African Community and his commitment to an East African Federation, despite ongoing security threats from Al-Shabaab and allegations of interference in the DRC.

The report details the 2011 Djiboutian presidential elections, which saw President Ismail Omar Guelleh re-elected for a third term with 80.56% of the vote following a boycott by the main opposition coalition, the Union for a Democratic Alternative (UAD). The author argues that the electoral process was far from competitive due to the fusion of the ruling Union for a Presidential Majority (UMP) with the state apparatus and the removal of presidential term limits in 2010. The document also highlights internal instability, including violent youth protests in February 2011 and ethnic tensions between the Issa and Afar groups. Externally, it describes the strategic military presence of France and the US, and the volatile border relationship with Eritrea, which was partially mitigated by Qatari mediation in 2010.

The author analyzes the causes of popular uprisings in countries such as Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, and Iran—citing unemployment, corruption, and authoritarianism—to warn the South African government. The text argues that constitutional democracy and voting are insufficient if elected officials remain unresponsive to the needs of the electorate, noting that dissatisfaction in places like Wesselton and Ermelo over jobs and service delivery mirrors the triggers of international unrest.

The document details California's efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 under the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB32). It outlines a cap-and-trade program scheduled for January 2012, alongside 'early action' measures such as the Low Carbon Fuel Standard and landfill methane capture. The briefing also highlights California's leadership in the Western Climate Initiative and the political support for these measures following the defeat of Proposition 23 in November 2010.