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2,011 documents from South African Institute of International Affairs
Speech by Minister Maite Nkoana‐Mashabane to the South African Institute off International Affairs (SAIIA) on the topic ‘The relationship between South Africa and the Emerging Global Powers’
The document argues that the rise of emerging powers—specifically the BRIC nations—provides an opportunity for South Africa and the broader African continent to shift the global economic center of gravity toward the South. Minister Nkoana‐Mashabane emphasizes that South Africa seeks to balance its memberships in IBSA and BRIC to amplify the voice of developing nations in multilateral processes and the reform of Bretton Woods Institutions. For Africa to transition into an emerging power itself, the Minister identifies four critical priority areas: Infrastructure, Intra-trade, Industry, and Integration. The speech frames these geopolitical shifts not as a zero-sum game, but as a means to address shared global challenges including climate change and energy security through cooperation between the developed and developing worlds.
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Document type: Statement
An Overview of the Carbon Trading Landscape: Possibilities and Pitfalls for South Africa
The paper examines the carbon trading landscape, focusing on the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and the potential for South Africa to establish a local carbon market. It highlights that while South Africa is the only African country among the top 20 CDM host countries, it remains underrepresented in carbon credit generation due to financing and technical hurdles. The authors argue that a shift from coal dependence to renewable energy is necessary to meet domestic and international targets, and that policy certainty is required to attract further investment.
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Document type: Research paper
Scoping Workshop: Development of Capacity in Civil Society to Track Implementation on the National APRM Programme
The statement outlines the architecture and status of South Africa's national APRM programme, emphasizing that civil society is the most critical component for ensuring the process's legitimacy. It identifies significant barriers to effective participation, including a lack of national ownership, limited access to information, and a critical shortage of financial resources, particularly for smaller NGOs. The document calls for collaborative strategies between government, business, and civil society to address these capacity gaps and align national performance targets with APRM goals.
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Document type: Statement
Africa and Geopolitics of India’s Energy security
India faces a growing gap between energy demand and indigenous supply, projecting it will become the world's third largest energy consumer by 2030. To address this, India is implementing an integrated energy policy focusing on diversifying sources—including increased imports of high-quality coal from South Africa and oil from Africa—while expanding nuclear, hydropower, and renewable energy capacities. Significant challenges remain, including unreliable infrastructure, high transmission losses, and geopolitical tensions affecting pipeline viability.
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Document type: Statement
Saudi Arabia as an Emerging Market: Commercial Opportunities and Challenges for South Africa
The document assesses Saudi Arabia's transition toward a diversified, non-oil-dependent economy and the resulting commercial opportunities for South Africa. It highlights Saudi Arabia's economic reforms, including the development of six mega-cities and the opening of its investment climate through SAGIA. The authors argue that South Africa is currently lagging behind other emerging powers like China and India in exploiting these opportunities and recommends reviving dormant bilateral mechanisms such as the Joint Economic Commission to attract Saudi investment and expand South African trade in the Gulf region.
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Document type: Research paper
BRIC and IBSA Forums: Neo-liberals in Disguise or Champions of the South?
The document examines the evolution of South–South co-operation through the lens of the BRIC and IBSA forums. It argues that while these emerging powers have the potential to challenge neo-liberal globalisation and shift global governance toward a multipolar world, they must move beyond rhetoric to adopt inclusive mechanisms that prioritise the development interests of Africa and the broader South to avoid becoming a 'rich man’s club'.
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Document type: Policy brief
Not another BRIC in the wall
The author critiques South Africa's proposed industrial strategy, which relies on state subsidies, selective import barriers, and 'infant industry' protection. Drawing on examples from East Asia, the paper argues that such policies often fail and that sustainable growth in the 21st century requires integrating into global production chains, attracting foreign investment, and improving basic infrastructure and education rather than relying on government intervention to 'pick winners'.
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Document type: Research paper
Development and Climate Change: Convergent or Divergent? A Look at South Africa's Coal Dependency and its Green Targets
South Africa faces a conflict between its development goals—focused on poverty alleviation and economic growth—and its climate targets, as 90% of its electricity is generated from coal. While the country has proposed ambitious emission cuts of 25% by 2020 and 42% by 2025, it continues to expand coal capacity through projects like the Medupi and Kusile plants to address electricity supply constraints. The document argues that development and climate mitigation can converge through an innovative economic agenda that exploits green market opportunities to create a new labour-absorbing industry.
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Document type: Research paper
SACU – One Hundred Not Out: What future for the Customs Union?
The Southern African Customs Union (SACU) is facing a crisis driven by disagreements over Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) negotiations with the EU and a shrinking revenue pool. While member states agree the 2002 SACU Agreement has not been fully implemented, they are divided on whether the organisation should be deepened into a common market or downgraded to a Free Trade Area (FTA). South Africa's dominance and its desire to shift toward 'production-led' regional integration further complicate the union's stability.
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Document type: Research paper
The Chinese Stance on the Darfur Conflict
The document argues that China shifted from providing unconditional support to the Sudanese government to adopting a more activist role, applying direct pressure on Khartoum to cooperate with the international community and the International Criminal Court. This transition was driven by international pressure, the need to be seen as a 'responsible stakeholder', and the realization that official Sudanese rhetoric differed from the reality in Darfur. Despite this shift, the author notes that Darfurian armed resistance movements and some civil society organizations continued to view China with distrust, occasionally targeting Chinese oil interests.
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Document type: Research paper
Workshop on Global Financial Reform and its effect on SACU Trade in Financial Services
The workshop examined how global financial regulatory shifts following the 2008 crisis affect Southern Africa. While South Africa dominates the regional financial services market, the adoption of Basel III—driven by South Africa's G20 membership—may create new barriers to trade by increasing capital requirements for riskier assets, potentially reducing funding for infrastructure and cross-border lending in the region. Discussants highlighted regulatory failures at national, governance, and global levels, noting that while some reforms are irrelevant to smaller SADC nations, the dominance of South African banks ensures these global standards are transmitted regionally. The report suggests that SADC countries face significant capacity gaps in macro-prudential supervision and non-bank regulation, proposing regional cooperation or a common regulator as a viable alternative to individual national efforts.
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Document type: Report
The Politics of Constitution-making and Referendum: The Case of Kenya and Zimbabwe
The paper analyzes why Kenya successfully adopted a new constitution in 2010 while Zimbabwe remained stalled in its outreach programme. It identifies shared challenges in both nations, including a history of elite-driven constitutions and disputes over executive power and land. The author attributes Kenya's progress to the strategic alignment of leaders President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga, whereas Zimbabwe's process is hindered by a fragile power-sharing agreement between ZANU-PF and the MDC and the influence of 'securocrats' who favor the old order of impunity.
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Document type: Research paper
China’s Exceptionalism in Africa: From Rhetorical to Substantive Difference
The document analyzes China's 'exceptionalism' in Africa, a policy framework based on the 1955 Bandung conference principles of sovereignty, non-interference, and mutual benefit. While this approach seeks to differentiate China from Western powers by emphasizing political equality and a non-donor-recipient model, the author identifies three primary challenges to its sustainability: the tension between non-interference and the protection of economic interests, the gap between nominal sovereign equality and actual power asymmetry, and the lack of central government control over autonomous sub-state and private actors.
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Document type: Research paper
Transparency in Trade Policymaking: Lessons for South Africa from Australia’s Experiences
The policy brief examines how Australia transitioned from a highly protected economy to a productive one starting in 1983 by using transparency to build public support for trade reform. It highlights the role of the Productivity Commission in providing evidence-based reports and the importance of adjustment assistance for affected sectors. The author recommends that South Africa establish a similar independent body of experts and engage the media to foster a consensus for trade liberalisation.
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Document type: Policy brief
The DRC at 50: Confronting the Challenges of Peace and Territorial Consolidation
The DRC faces significant hurdles in establishing state authority and territorial integrity, complicated by a stalled decentralisation process and border disputes over oil and gas deposits. The transition from MONUC to MONUSCO represents a symbolic shift toward stabilisation, while the STAREC programme attempts to restore basic institutional infrastructure in conflict zones. Resource governance remains precarious due to illegal mineral trade, lack of monitoring technology for oil exports, and legal disputes over mining contracts involving international corporations.
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Document type: Policy brief
Zuma's state visit and the challenges of doing business in Russia
The document examines the potential for a strategic partnership between South Africa and Russia, noting that while Russia's economic size and global influence make it a vital partner for exports and FDI, South African corporates face significant hurdles. These include a poor 'Doing Business' ranking, widespread corruption, lax intellectual property enforcement, and state dominance in strategic sectors. Despite these challenges, the state visit resulted in cooperation agreements in uranium enrichment, space, technology, and mining.
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Document type: Research paper
Trade, Industrial Policy and Exchange Rates in South Africa
The document summarizes a 'Critical Thinking Forum' that examined whether South Africa should intervene in its exchange rate to boost export competitiveness. A consensus emerged that manipulating the nominal exchange rate is not a 'silver bullet' and could be unsustainable due to limited foreign exchange reserves and the risk of increasing inflation. Instead, participants emphasized the need for microeconomic reforms to address structural bottlenecks in network services and lower domestic costs. The paper also explores the tension between trade liberalisation and protectionist industrial policies, such as those advocated by COSATU and the SACP, noting that previous liberalisation in the 1990s helped export diversification.
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Document type: Research paper
Governance and the War of Words at the End of the Resource Rainbow
The document examines the 'societal nexus' of resource extraction in Africa, where the intersection of state, corporate, and community interests often leads to conflict, poverty, and alienation. It highlights how historical trauma and corruption hinder the establishment of civic peace and transparent governance. Using examples from the DRC, Nigeria, Ghana, and Uganda, the author argues that transforming the 'war of words' and zero-sum competition into a discourse of cooperation and shared learning is essential for sustainable development.
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Document type: Research paper
Conference on “The APRM: Taking Peer Learning to the Next Level” Kampala, Uganda, 20-21 July 2010 Communiqué
The communiqué from the July 2010 Kampala conference identifies critical areas for improving the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM). Key recommendations include the urgent need to fill the vacant CEO position of the APRM Secretariat, the integration of National Programmes of Action (NPOA) into national budgeting and planning, and the requirement for National Governing Councils to maintain institutional independence with a non-executive majority. The document emphasizes that while twelve countries had completed reviews by 2010, the pace of accession and execution remains slow, urging all 53 African states to join the mechanism.
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Document type: Statement
Conférence sur Le MAEP : Passer à un niveau supérieur en matière d’apprentissage par les pairs
The document is a communiqué from a conference held in Kampala, Uganda, focused on enhancing the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM). It identifies critical gaps in the current process, including the slow pace of evaluations, the lack of attention given to National Action Plans (PAN), and insufficient access to information for the public. The participants call for stronger commitment from heads of state, greater institutional independence for national governing councils, and a more inclusive approach to civil society engagement. It also highlights the need to fill the vacant position of President of the APRM Secretariat and to integrate media coverage into the APRM questionnaire.
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Document type: Statement